NFL Plays — Week 4
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD
21 WINS – 18 LOSSES – 0 PUSHES —– (+ 6.2 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,620.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 2-0-0
The New Orleans Saints are killing me. Down about 15 units on that team alone this season. Still, we’re slightly in the profit column (+6.2 percent for the season) heading into Week 4.
Ten plays. Wagering $3,770. this week.
Note: All wagers are for amusement-purposes only. I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.
LAST WEEK’S POSTED PICKS:
FIRST QUARTER WAGER — TAMPA / DALLAS OVER 9.5 (-110) — 2 units…..WON
GAME SIDE — San Diego -3 vs. Atlanta (-110) — 2 units…..LOST
GAME SIDE — Cleveland +3 vs. Buffalo (-120) — 2 units…..LOST
GAME TOTAL — St. Louis / Chicago OVER 43 (-110) — 3 units…..LOST
GAME TOTAL — Houston / Denver OVER 44.5 (-120) — 1 unit…..WON
GAME TOTAL — Philadelphia / Arizona OVER 42 (-110) — 4 units…..LOST
GAME TOTAL — Pittsburgh / Oakland UNDER 45 (-110) — 3 units…..LOST
FIRST-HALF — St. Louis +4.5 vs. Chicago (-110) — 4 units…..LOST
FIRST-HALF — Cincinnati +2.5 vs. Washington (-110) — 2 units…..WON
FIRST HALF — BET BET OF THE WEEK: Arizona +3 vs. Philadelphia (-110) — 4 units…..WON
6-POINT TWO-TEAM TEASER: Miami +8.5 / New Orleans -3 (-110) — 2 units…..LOST
6-POINT TWO-TEAM TEASER: Dallas -2 / New Orleans -3 (-110) — 3 units…..LOST
THIS WEEK’S PICKS:
1Q — ST. LOUIS +.5 (-140) — 4 units
This is the perfect spot for the home dog, coming off a horrible road performance at Chicago versus a team that has not played that well offensively, and is a fraudulent 2-1 (last week’s bad call). Since when does Seattle deserve to be a -3 road favorite? With a rookie quarterback in a road game? Seattle is 6-points better than St. Louis on a neutral field? I don’t think so. I’ll play the home team here, laying some chalk versus a team that doesn’t produce a lot of points, so far.
1Q — MIAMI +.5 (-110) — 2 units
I’ll join the doubters club that Arizona is a legitimate undefeated team (3-0, but they could be 1-2 had just two plays gone different late in NWE and SEA games). I’m still not convinced they can move the ball on offense, and so getting the half-point in the first quarter with just about any opponent at the standard vig of -110 strikes me as a solid investment.
1Q — WASHINGTON +.5 (-145) — 2 units
High vig, but Redskins offense is for real. Wish this were in the -125 range in which case I would pound this wager for 4-5 units. Still enough value with what may be the superior team, getting the hook in the first quarter.
1Q — NY GIANTS +.5 (-145) — 4 units
Already some rumblings in PHILA about Vick’s status, who has been a turnover machine. PHILA has started every game HORRIBLY, winning two games in the closing minutes and getting humiliated at Phoenix. Defending SB champ rivals come in, getting points — will take the hook and lay some heavy vig based on the prospect PHILA gets off to another slow start versus a defense that is better than its shown the first few weeks.
TOTAL — SEATTLE/ST. LOUIS OVER 39 — 3 units
Dome game, usally good for overs…..ridiculously low total given the way the NFL plays with all rules favoring offenses. Previous Ram home game produced 59 points……yet this is one of the lowest totals on the board. Neither defense strikes me as worthy of this kind of number.
TOTAL — ARIZONA/MIAMI OVER 39 — 3 units
People who have followed my plays for years know of my bias for ARZ overs. I won’t try and justify it. These games historically tend to sail over in the 2H with wacky plays, defensive scores, etc. Two unders at home so for this season. Neverthless, I’ll say on the Cardinal OVER train one more week.
TOTAL — DENVER/OAKLAND UNDER 48.5 — 3 units
Again, some bias here. I tend to like UNDER in division rivalries……not at all convinced OAK is the offensive team it showed versus Steelers last week……heard Carson Palmer was changing plays in the huddle. DEN also not lighting up any scoreboards, so far. Looking for this game to end 23-20 on a late FG.
TOTAL — DALLAS/CHICAGO OVER 42 — 4 units (MNF)
More bias…..seems like a low total for a MNF game…..two very expereinced QBs, both offenses capable of producing points. Looking for a wide open game with a lot of big plays. Just a feeliing this game is wildly entertaining.
GAME — DETROIT -4 — 5 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>
Absolutely perfect spot for Lions who have struggled after two road losses and have not really looked solid in any game this season. Minnesota probably the most fraudulent 2-1 team in history……coming off shocking upset of 49ers and home and now must do a road travel game against a bitter opponent that’s going to be very motivated. No way Vikings lousy offense is able to keep pace with Lions in this game. Love this bet. Line should be -6.
6-POINT TEASER: NY GIANTS +8.5/MIAMI +11.5 — 4 units
NYG benefit the Wong teaser effect, going over all the key numbers from the game line of -2.5 up to more than a touchdown. Love what is perhaps the better team in a road game, versus opponent struggling on offense. NYG and PHILA have a history of playing close games (same coaches, same teams basically)….not sure why this would suddenly change this week. Also leaning on Dolphins which have been competitive and now play what I believe is a vastly overrated opponent. I’ll take the generous points with the live dog here.