NFL Plays — Week 15
Personal Note: I almost passed on doing NFL games this week. One feels such a sense of loss and comes to realize the utter insignificance of these exercises in light of yesterday’s tragedy. That said, I’m posting an abbreviated version of selections. Peace.
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD
80 WINS – 74 LOSSES – 4 PUSHES —– (+ 28.85 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $12,850.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 10-4-0
I’m thinking of writing a new book. Working title: “How to Lose $5,000 in profit in Three Weeks.”
Four games went down in flames in the final three minutes last week — which totaled more than -30 units in losses. The worst of the beats was Baltimore, getting points, somehow blowing an 8-point lead in the final seconds of the game and then losing outright. Similar horror stories took place in Buffalo (up by 5 with a minute left, and lose outright), Cincinnati (ahead by 9 points with 6 minutes left, and lose outright), and Miami (surrendering a breakaway 50-yard run in the closing seconds for a “meaningless” touchdown). Then, there was Kansas City somehow missing a 27-yard-field goal, which would have pushed the first half over the total (another 8.4 unit swing). Excuses are worthless, but that was a miserable an afternoon as I have experienced in a very long time.
Snake bit by what I’ve seen, I’ll be cutting back on plays these final weeks of the regular season. After seeing deadbeat teams like San Diego and Carolina winning huge last week against all manner of logic, I’m going to lock down my handicapping and bet only what I think are the best few wagers on the board. I think it’s important to walk away from this season with a winning record and profit, and that remains my primary goal. It hurts badly to have fallen from the high mark a month ago when we were at +78 units. But it’s important to stay focused and grind out some profit in these final weeks of the regular season.
I’m down on just five wagers for Sunday.
THIS WEEK’S WAGERS:
6-POINT TEASER: JACKSONVILLE +15 with MINNESOTA +8.5 (-110) for 6 units
Both wagers here are more “go against” plays than confidence bets on the two teams I’m backing. First, there’s no way Miami should be a 9-point favaorite over anyone given their lackluster offense. But I’m going to take some extra cushion on this game and tease my dog up to over two touchdowns. In the other game, St. Louis is one of the worst .500 teams this late in the season in recent memory. They’ve enjoyed two completely false wins the last two weeks, where both opponents blew leads and easy wins. The Rams offense has been painfully inefficient and yet is favored. No doubt, Minnesota has made improvements and is the better overall team. I think the Vikings’ 7-6 record is well deserved, as opposed to the fraudulent similar mark posted by the Rams. Some concern with Vikings not playing well on the road all season, but transferring from one dome to another might minimize change in conditions. It’s not like Rams enjoy huge home field advantage. I’ll gladly take one TD+ in one game and two TD+ in the other for this teaser.
JACKSONVILLE +9 vs. MIAMI (-120) for 5 units
Two very ugly teams playing late in the season often provides excellent betting value. No doubt, both teams will look upon this as a winnable game and for that reason, I expect it to be close. Jacksonville played well in the close loss to the Jets last week, showing me they still appear to have some pride (unlike Raiders, for instance). Miami’s slide during the last half of the season has been just as awful — losers in 5 of last 6. Given Miami’s poor offensive production, I’m going to take the points. It’s important not to look so much at the entire season (which shows Miami clearly with the better W-L record). I’m throwing out those first few months when Miami won some close games and now posts a deceptive record, and make an assessment that Miami right now in mid-December is really no better than Jacksonville at this point. Stats and results certainly prove this over the last month. So, taking the generous points becomes mandatory.
NEW ENGLAND -4.5 vs. SAN FRANCISO (-110) for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>
I cringe at the notion of wagering on New England, which sometimes comes up flat in games when you least expect it. But after watching Patiots demolish Houston last week, it appears they’re seriously targeting home field throughout playoffs. Staying home another week should help, as well. I’ll fade the fraud 49rs QB Kaepernick once again this week. Got burned last week with some flakey plays, but he’s not going to jackrabbit cheap touchdowns against this New England defense on the road. I expect Kaepernick to be eating a shitload of turf and I’m going to be enjoying every minute of it. I’ll take a drink every time Kaepernick get sacked or makes an error and expect to be completely sauced by halftime. I may need to make a special trip to the liquor store.
FIRST QUARTER: MIAMI/JACKSONVILLE OVER 7 (-125) for 4 units
Staying with my conviction that any two teams playing in decent conditions should be able to post at least a TD over 15 minutes of playing, so long as the lay price is 4-3 or less.
FIRST QUARTER: MINNESOTA/ST. LOUIS OVER 7 (-120) for 4 units
LAST WEEKS RESULTS: -48.8 units in losses / + 19 units in wins = net -19.8 units in losses
BALTIMORE +1 vs. WASHINGTON (-110) for 6 units — LOSS
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON UNDER 47.5 (-110) for 4 units — LOSS
TENNESSEE / INDIANAPOLIS OVER 46.5 (-110) for 4 units — WIN
JACKSONVILLE +3 vs. NY JETS (-125) for 5 units — LOSS
BUFFALO -3 vs. ST. LOUIS (-110) for 4 units — LOSS
CINCINNATI -3.5 vs DALLAS (-110) for 3 units — LOSS
ATLANTA -3.5 vs CAROLINA (-110) for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — LOSS
MIAMI +10.5 vs. SAN FRANCISCO (-110) for 5 units — LOSS
NY GIANTS -5 vs. NEW ORLEANS (-110) for 5 units — WIN
FIRST HALF WAGER: KANSAS CITY / CLEVELAND OVER 19.5 (-110) for 4 units — LOSS
1Q: KANSAS CITY/CLEVELAND OVER 7 (-120) for 5 units — WIN
1Q: PITTSBURGH/SAN DIEGO OVER 7 (-125) for 5 units — LOSS
1Q: CHICAGO/MINNESOTA OVER 7 (-125) for 5 units — WIN