NFL Plays — Week 13 (Thursday Night Game)

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

73 WINS – 60 LOSSES – 3 PUSHES —– (+ 59.85 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $15,985.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  9-3-0

 

I love tonight’s game.  This looks like the “Best Bet of the Week.”   See full write-up below.

 

ATLANTA -3.5 vs. NEW ORLEANS (-110) — for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

This is a puzzling spread for two teams that have put up vastly different results this season.  Atlanta is arguably the best team in the NFL at the moment, with a 10-1 SU record playing against a 5-6 SU team (worse ATS) that has been a huge disappointment.  Normally, a 10-1 team playing a team with a losing record would be lined at more than a touchdown.  Add three points for home field advantage, and this line should clearly be at or around the -7 mark.  Number is probably shaded downward due to New Orleans playing well historically versus Atlanta.  But this game has all the makings of a complete reversal of recent history.  Atlanta probably should have won the matchup at New Orleans three weeks ago.  The Falcons played one of their worst games of the season and nearly pulled out a victory in the closing seconds (first and goal at the Saints 3-yard line with a minute to go, and couldn’t score).  That sets up a nice revenge spot here, for the home team.  Moreover, this looks like a tougher travel spot than normal for the Saints, who have performed poorly on the road.  Three days off between games clearly favors a good home team off a road victory, versus a struggling team that might have given its best shot the previous week and could be spent.  That San Francisco game was a must-win for New Orleans, and I fail to see how the team can regroup on the road so quickly versus one of the NFL’s top teams.  Coaching, this is a complete mismatch — as Mike Smith is proven to be on a mission with his team, as opposed to Saints staff which has failed in every conceivable way this season.  I have no idea why this line is not at least -6 and perhaps -7.  Again, bettors are looking at New Orleans’ history versus Atlanta, but these two teams bear no resemblance to the contests that have been played in the past when Sean Payton was on the sidelines.  I’ll take a solid team playing great football at the moment in a revenge spot on a very short week of preparation which is laying no more than a standard toss up home-field number.  

 

LAST SUNDAY’S RESULTS:   4 wins and 6 losses and 1 push for a net loss of 16.0 units

CLEVELAND +1 vs. PITTSBURGH (-110) — for 4 units…..WINNER

NEW ORLEANS +1 vs. SAN FRANCISCO (-110) — for 4 units…..LOSER

BALTIMORE -1 vs. SAN DIEGO (-105) — for 2 units…..WINNER

NEW ORLEANS / SAN FRANCISCO OVER 48.5 (-110) — for 3 units…..WINNER

GREEN BAY / NY GIANTS OVER 51 (-110) — for 3 units…..LOSER

1Q:  CAROLINA / PHILADELPHIA OVER 7 (-130) — for 5 units…..WINNER

1Q:  MIAMI / SEATTLE OVER 7 (-125) — for 5 units…..LOSER

1Q:  ST. LOUIS / ARIZONA OVER 7 (EVEN) — for 5 units….PUSH

1Q:  ST. LOUIS + .5 vs. ARIZONA (-150) — for 4 units…..LOSER

1Q:  GREEN BAY + .5 vs. NY GIANTS (-135) — for 3 units…..LOSER

1Q:  OAKLAND + 3 vs. CINCINNATI (-120) — for 5 units…..LOSER

 

LAST THURSDAY’S RESULTS:  2 wins and 1 loss and a net gain of 7.7 units

WASHINGTON +3.5 vs. DALLAS (-110) — for 5 units — WINNER

NEW ENGLAND/NY JETS UNDER 48 (-110) — for 3 units — LOSER

6-POINT TEASER:  WASHINGTON +9.5 / NEW ENGLAND -1 (-110) — for 6 units — WINNER