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Posted by on Dec 1, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 1 comment

NFL Plays — Week 13




74 WINS – 60 LOSSES – 3 PUSHES —– (+ 66.85 units / 1 unit = $100)





This week’s “best bet” already won (Atlanta).  Looks to be another strong lineup of games.  I’m making eight plays on Sunday.  See write-ups below.



CLEVELAND / OAKLAND OVER 38 (-110) — for 6 units

How can any game with the Raiders horrific defense be totaled at anything in the 30’s?  This pathetic unit makes average offenses look like the 1985 Chargers.  Raiders are giving up a mind-boggling 33 points per game — including 169 points in their last four games.  Meanwhile, Cleveland is playing reasonably well, or at least competitive lately, which indicates they’ll look to this as a winnable game.  I really like what I see from the Browns, which is starting to show positive signs for the future.  In particular, RB Richardson has come of age with 400+ rushing yards last four games.  Now, he gets to face one of the NFL’s worst defenses.  I’d have this total up around 42.  Capturing the key total with a push on 38 also makes this attractive and worthy of a larger-than-average play.  I see a game where one team gets ahead, the trailing team starts making mistakes, and the total sails over the number in garbage time.


6-POINT TEASER:  SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 / WASHINGTON +9 (-110) — for 5 units

Two attractive teams playing well at the moment anchor this teaser, which picks up all the key numbers, ala Wong.  First, let’s discuss San Francisco.  Some bettors may be wary of last game where Rams played to a surprising tie at Candlestick Park.  But that was off the bye week, where Jeff Fisher had two weeks to prepare.  I don’t see the 49ers coming into this game napping, as was the case last time.  San Francisco could have easily mailed in the New Orleans game last week.  But this team is playing like it’s a game out of first place rather than a unit almost certain to win the division and earn a bye come playoff time.  Apparently, the offense is rallying with QB Kaepernick in the huddle.  He’s playing like an All-Pro at the moment.  I’d never lay more than a touchdown in the road (line is -7.5).  But teasing down the far superior team coming off a disappointment the last time these two teams faced each other is an attractive wager.  I might have some respect for the Rams, but that last home game where they were destroyed by a bad NY Jets team reveals how far this team has to go….Meanwhile, I’ll also take Washington for the third consecutive week.  Before the Philadelphia game (when Skins were 3-6), I noted that Washington players were optimistic they could get to 6-6 and join the playoff chase.  That’s exactly what happened as Redskins outplayed both Eagles and Cowboys.  Now, they catch NY Giants coming off a huge home victory who now must travel on road.  One of the biggest home games for Washington in years, and I expect this team to be ready.  Not sure Redskins win this one, but I expect it will be close, where getting the +9 should be a nice cushion.  Redskins have lost only one game by double digits this season, which was at Pittsburgh.



Linemakers overreaction here to last game in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, which was a defensive struggle.  But that was with the horrific Byron Leftwich starting at QB.  Even Batch is an improvement to that abomination.  I expect one of two things to happen — Steelers will actually put up a few points here, or Ravens will score enough to eclipse this low number.  Talk all week was about how frustrated QB Batch and offense was after a terrible performance at Cleveland.  I expect a better effort this week in what has become a virtual “must win” game for Steelers.  Pittsburgh has game planned last two games with a conservative playbook combined with hopes that defense would play well enough to win.  That proved to be a miserable failure.  Hence, I expect some risk-taking this week in desperation time.  Meanwhile, it’s hard to figure out Ravens offense, which scores in the 50s one week, and then struggles badly the next two games on the road.  I think playing back here at home this week, Ravens will perform better on offense.  This is a game where Ravens can pretty much clinch the division with a victory.  As long as we capture a push on the 17, this is worth a wager on OVER the first-half total.  Moreover, two very opportunistic defenses creates the possibility of defensive scoring.  


1Q:  CHICAGO/SEATTLE OVER 7 (-120) — for 4 units

1Q:  ARIZONA/NY JETS OVER 7 (-120) — for 4 units

1Q:  BALTIMORE/PITTSBURGH OVER 7 (-135) — for 3 units

1Q:  CLEVELAND/OAKLAND OVER 7 (-125) — for 6 units

1Q:  WASHINGTON + .5 (-135) — for 4 units



ATLANTA -3.5 vs. NEW ORLEANS (-110) — for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WINNER

This is a puzzling spread for two teams that have put up vastly different results this season.  Atlanta is arguably the best team in the NFL at the moment, with a 10-1 SU record playing against a 5-6 SU team (worse ATS) that has been a huge disappointment.  Normally, a 10-1 team playing a team with a losing record would be lined at more than a touchdown.  Add three points for home field advantage, and this line should clearly be at or around the -7 mark.  Number is probably shaded downward due to New Orleans playing well historically versus Atlanta.  But this game has all the makings of a complete reversal of recent history.  Atlanta probably should have won the matchup at New Orleans three weeks ago.  The Falcons played one of their worst games of the season and nearly pulled out a victory in the closing seconds (first and goal at the Saints 3-yard line with a minute to go, and couldn’t score).  That sets up a nice revenge spot here, for the home team.  Moreover, this looks like a tougher travel spot than normal for the Saints, who have performed poorly on the road.  Three days off between games clearly favors a good home team off a road victory, versus a struggling team that might have given its best shot the previous week and could be spent.  That San Francisco game was a must-win for New Orleans, and I fail to see how the team can regroup on the road so quickly versus one of the NFL’s top teams.  Coaching, this is a complete mismatch — as Mike Smith is proven to be on a mission with his team, as opposed to Saints staff which has failed in every conceivable way this season.  I have no idea why this line is not at least -6 and perhaps -7.  Again, bettors are looking at New Orleans’ history versus Atlanta, but these two teams bear no resemblance to the contests that have been played in the past when Sean Payton was on the sidelines.  I’ll take a solid team playing great football at the moment in a revenge spot on a very short week of preparation which is laying no more than a standard toss up home-field number.

1 Comment

  1. Nice picks and great write ups/analysis. I’m with ya on all of them outside Pitt/Balt. Charlie Batch isn’t an upgrade on anyone, Joey Harrington included!

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