NFL Plays — Week 11 (Early Release)
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD
62 WINS – 49 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 59.25 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $15,925.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 8-3-0
This is a rare mid-week release due to Thursday night’s NFL game between Miami and Buffalo.
Note: All wagers are for amusement-purposes only. I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.
NFL WEEK 11 PLAYS (THURSDAY-RELATED ONLY — SUNDAY’S FULL SLATE OF PLAYS TO COME)
6-POINT TEASER: MIAMI +8.5 / DENVER -1.5 (-110) — for 5 units
This is the quintessential Wong Teaser, crossing all the key numbers both ways — one with the live dog and the other with the home favorite which should win the game.
First, let’s look at Miami. Both teams playing on Thursday lost in disappointing fashion last week. But the manner in which they lost is key. Buffalo showed great composure in the last-second loss at New England last week, but still suffered an emotionally crushing defeat. Meanwhile, Miami was blown away in a stunning home upset to Tennessee that virtually no one saw coming.
The differences in losses here is the key. Often young, mediocre teams (a tag which apples to both Buffalo and Miami) react from week to week based upon what happened most recently. They are largely motivated by emotions, or the lack thereof. I foresee this being a difficult bounce back game for Buffalo. I don’t see a quick emotional or practical regroup, being fully prepared for this game three days later after taking such a tough loss to the division kingpin. By contrast, Miami fell behind 21-0 early and was out of the game from the start, which sets up what I expect will be a greater sense of eagerness this week and get back on the field to erase that ugly performance. From what I could tell in that loss, Miami exerted almost no effort in the second half trying to make a comeback and decided at halftime to simply stay healthy and start preparing for next week.
Buffalo is now on a three-game losing slide. The season is done The defense is atrocious –surrendering the most points per game of any team (even worse than New Orleans and Jacksonville). Moreover, leading rusher Jackson is out for this game. Miami is probably a slightly better team at the moment, with a 4-5 record which includes two very close losses. I’ll tease the live dog in what I think will be a better emotional state versus a team that figures to be in a hangover mode after that close loss last week. Any team coached by mediocre non-motivator Chan Gailey is a team I usually want to fade anyway, no matter who the opponent.
In other game, you have to like a rising team hitting on all cylinders now playing San Diego, which draws is second straight road game. This would be a bad spot for San Diego anyway, but combine this with the Chargers dismal history in “must win” games like this, and it seems Denver is the safe bet to at least win the game (which is all that’s basically needed with the lay number of 1.5). Denver comes off two straight road wins, never easy to do in the NFL and gets better each week, while San Diego wallows in mediocrity. I’ll go with the team that enjoyed a big comeback win over this same opponent on their home field a month ago. Now, they are home and playing even better ball.
Lock that bet in now, and then we’ll come back Sunday with a full slate of games and picks.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS: 11 wins and 3 losses
BUFFALO-NEW ENGLAND UNDER 53 (-110) for 4 units — LOSS
CINCINNATI +4 (-110) for 3 units — WIN
TAMPA -3 (-110) for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WIN
NEW ORLEANS +1 (-110) for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WIN
TEASER: MINNESOTA + 8.5 with PITTSBURGH -5.5 (-110) for 6 units — LOSS
SEATTLE/NY JETS OVER 38.5 (-110) for 3 units — LOSS
SEA/NYJ FIRST HALF OVER 19.5 (-110) for 3 units — WIN
SAN FRANCISCO/ST. LOUIS OVER 38.5 (-110) for 3 units — WIN
SFO/STL FIRST HALF OVER 19.5 (-110) for 3 units — WIN
FIRST QUARTER — SAN DIEGO/TAMPA OVER 9.5 (-120) for 5 units — WIN
FIRST QUARTER — DENVER/CAROLINA OVER 9.5 (-115) for 5 units — WIN
FIRST QUARTER — DETROIT/MINNESOTA OVER 9.5 (-120) for 5 units — WIN
FIRST QUARTER — NY JETS/SEATTLE OVER 7 (-125) for 6 units –WIN
FIRST QUARTER — ST. LOUIS/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 7 (-120) for 6 units — WIN