NFL Plays — Week 10
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD
51 WINS – 46 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 6.95 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,695.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 6-3-0
Favorites destroyed the dogs last week, which is a contrarian’s nightmare. Home dogs were slaughtered. Given that, I was very fortunate to escape with an 8-8 win-loss mark.
The losses were very demoralizing — as the live home dogs were pretty much out of the game early.
Worse, I took at least three horrific beats on first quarter plays — the worst of which was in the DEN-CINCY game when an official blew a call when the runner intentionally ran ot of bounds with :22 left on the clock (the next play was a CINCY field goal). Yet the official inexplicably let the clock run and I lost the wager. The other horrible beat was getting points in the TAMPA-OAK first quarter. Bucs were kicking a FG to go up with about 4 minutes left in the first, when OAK blocked the kick and runs it back 30 yards the other way. OAK proceeds to milk the clock all the way down to :30 kicks a FG and I lose. Then, there was HOU-BUFF where it’s scoreless until :36 seconds left and then HOU runs a trick play and throws a 40-yard touchdown pass. Any play in bounds there would have run the clock down to a scoreless tie and a win. DAL-ATL should have gone over as well, as the first four drives crossed midfield — including three drives within the opponents 25-yard line. But all we could muster was 6 points.
So, four brutal first quarter losses and three live dogs that failed to show resulted in a maddening day. But, getting to the .500 mark was somewhat a relief considering the way the early games turned out.
Coming off the frustration, going 8 wins and 8 losses for a net loss of -.6 units.
My overall record remains in the black in all categories, but need to improve. Lot’s of attractive wagers this week, including two “Best Bets.”
Making 14 wagers on Sunday.
Note: All wagers are for amusement-purposes only. I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.
NFL WEEK 10 PLAYS:
BUFFALO-NEW ENGLAND UNDER 53 (-110) for 4 units
This is too many points for an outdoor division rivalry game, particularly since New England has sputtered offensively at times, when playing at home. Not sure Buffalo can put up enough points on the road to help the OVER get there. So, I’m looking for either a New England off-day or a poor effort by Buffalo offense, which should lock up the UNDER.
CINCINNATTI +4 (-110) for 3 units
What’s the old saying — “fool me once, etc”…..I bet Cincy last week and was disappointed by the non-cover. But dogs in back to back home games tend to do better in second game when they lost the first, and I also think NYG are flying a bit too high with public right now. So, I am going to stick with my contrarian roots and perhaps go down in flames with another wager on the outclassed Bengals who must win here to salvage their season. Not sure this game means as much to NYG as the home team but Cincy has often been a heartbreaker in this spot. I’ll stick with this unfaithful bride one more week and see if she can mend her ways.
TAMPA -3 (-110) for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>
Love the rising Bucs at home who are showing real signs of life, especially on offense. Two straight road wins and a strong effort at home versus New Orleans the last three games have revealed an improving squad which is now playing with a lot of confidence. Once again, I’ll fade San Diego anytime after November in just about any game, especially on the road. In San Diego’s last road game at Cleveland, I pointed out these are the kinds of games Norv Turner is infamous for losing and I see no reason to change that opinion. These are two teams headed in completely different directions. This game is one of two “Best Bets” of the week.
NEW ORLEANS +1 (-110) for 7 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>
This pick will shock a few people, but I see the Falcons losing their first game here. Atlanta faces a real test in a stadium where they have historically not played well. Clearly, moivation is on the Saints’ side too, combined with the suspicion of complacency with Falcons which seem to draw teams each week when they are at their worst. But in this game, I think Atlanta sees a different New Orleans team. Event with concerns about New Orleans defense, Saints are more than capable and overdue for a big home win. Any other spot and this would be a pass — but New Orleans does match up well historically here and with the extra motivation of coming off a humiliating road loss at Denver two weeks ago and time to prepare, I see a much better effort here this week.
TEASER: MINNESOTA + 8.5 with PITTSBURGH -5.5 (-110) for 6 units
Have to like Minnesota as a division home dog with a winning record playing a disappointing team with a losing record, that inexplicably gets more respect than it deserves here. I’m also still not sold on Detrit offense, Lions finally put together a solid win last week, but that was against the NFL’s worst team, Jax. Vikings should keep this within a touchdown and so I’ll bite on the teaser moving the line from +2.5 up to +8.5…..combine with Steelers at home on MNF playing versus a team that everyone will agree should have trouble scoring. This is a dismal offense — love the tease down less than a touchdown with the far superior team.
SEATTLE/NY JETS OVER 38.5 (-110) for 3 units
FIRST HALF OVER 19.5 (-110) for 3 units
I’ll go over on one of the lowest totals on the board….especially like to do this on non-conference games where one team is a bit desperate (NYJ) and likely has to change the offensive game plan a bit, which could go either way. Also like the inside of the 20 in the first half.
SAN FRANCISCO/ST. LOUIS OVER 38.5 (-110) for 3 units
FIRST HALF OVER 19.5 (-110) for 3 units
Everyone seems to expect a blowout here, but I think the Rams make a game of this and score some points (insert laugh track)…..and if I’m wrong, then we could see a blowout. I’ll go over the other low total on the board. Once again, we also get the inside of the key numer 20. Would love to see a 13-7 halftime score.
FIRST QUARTER — SAN DIEGO/TAMPA OVER 9.5 (-120) for 5 units
FIRST QUARTER — DENVER/CAROLINA OVER 9.5 (-115) for 5 units
FIRST QUARTER — DETROIT/MINNESOTA OVER 9.5 (-120) for 5 units
FIRST QUARTER — NY JETS/SEATTLE OVER 7 (-125) for 6 units
FIRST QUARTER — ST. LOUIS/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 7 (-120) for 6 units
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
CINCINNATI +3.5 vs. DENVER (-110) — for 5 units — LOST
JACKSONVILLE +4.5 vs. DETROIT (-110) — for 4 units — LOST
TENNESSEE +3.5 vs. CHICAGO (-110) — for 5 units — LOST
PITTSBURGH +3.5 vs. NY GIANTS (-110) — for 3 units — WON
TAMPA / OAKLAND OVER 46.5 (-110) — for 3 units — WON
PHILADELPHIA / NEW ORLEANS UNDER 52 (-110) — for 3 units — WON
FIRST HALF: BUFFALO +7 vs. HOUSTON (-110) — for 4 units — WON
TEASER: GREEN BAY -4 / MINNESOTA +10.5 (-110) — for 6 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WON
1Q: CINCINNATI + .5 (-125) for 3 units — LOST
1Q: INDIANAPOLIS + .5 (-140) for 3 units — WON
1Q: BUFFALO +3 (-105) for 3 units — LOST
1Q: JAX + .5 (-120) for 4 units — WON
1Q: TENN + .5 (-120) for 4 units — LOST
1Q: TAMPA + .5 (-145) for 3 units — LOST
1Q: MINNESOTA / SEATTLE OVER 7 (-130) for 4 units — WON
1Q: DALLAS / ATLANTA OVER 9.5 (-115) for 3 units — LOST -30.6 units 30