My NFL Picks: Week 8
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD
48 WINS — 41 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES
LAST WEEK – 6 WINS — 5 LOSSES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $8,215.
NET GAIN/LOSS: minus $1,785.
BEST BETS: 6–9–1
Let’s talk about Jacksonville.
Lots of people beat me up for picking that pig last week. It lost by double digits. Funny how it’s always easy to see the light AFTER the game is over. There sure are a lot of geniuses on Monday mornings.
But here’s the facts. One key to profitable sports betting is to try and stay AHEAD of the market. Follow the crowd and you’re going to lose your ass in the long run. Big time. Winners anticipate what’s likely to happen and then take advantage of numbers that haven’t quite adjusted yet to reality.
If any team is an absolute pariah right now, it’s Jacksonville. They’re on a slide that could rival the winless 2008 Detroit Lions. Yet even those awful Lions that year didn’t go 0-16 against the spread. There are spots when you should bet on bad teams. Moreover, it’s immensely profitable to get as much value as you can anytime the market thinks one way, and reality suggests something different.
So, I was wrong about Jacksonville last week. I’m going to be wrong a lot of times, as the record shows. But that pick last week was more a case of betting against the rival than falling in love with the team we’re backing. There are likely to be situations where this will come up again. By the way, Jacksonville’s only cover this season was versus the team that most say is the best in the NFL right now — Denver. So, it goes to show that selective contrarianism works. Moreoever, anyone who thinks following to the echo chamber (“Jacksonville sucks,” etc.) will make money as a betting strategy is invited to e-mail me. I’ll be glad to take your wagers. You don’t make money betting with the crowd, you do so (sometimes) by betting against it.
Then again, if you don’t like my plays then by all means please — be against them. You’ve be 7 games under .500 and stuck somewhat worse than where I am right now, due to the extra vig. I’m not in a position to squawk right now, with a rough start to the season. But I’ll be glad to fade what’s popular almost every time.
As I said, it’s been a less than satisfying season, but there’s still a long way to go. Here are my nine plays for NFL Week 8:
FIRST QUARTER: NY Giants +.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300
I’ll take the half point in what appears to be a toss-up situation.
GAME TOTAL: San Francicso / Jacksonville UNDER 40 — $330 to win $300
Wind gusts up to 40 mph right now in London, reports are it will get worse by nighttime. Should hurt passing games. Two weak passing quarterbacks anyway. And one team can”t score. All this points to an under.
THIS WEEK’S PLAYS:
TEAM TOTAL FIRST HALF: Jacksonville OVER 6 (-110) — $660 to win $600 <<<BESTBET>>>
Highly unusual to see any NFL team lined at less than a TD in a half of football, but that’s the case with the miserable Jags. I’m not sure the long trip won’t create some usual results — certainly possible here. While JAX might be hard pressed to produce 6+ on the road in San Francisco, one would think this game on a neutral site would favor them breaking such a low number. I’ll tag this one with a decent-sized wager, hoping the 49ers commit a turnover or two, or perhaps we get a fluke touchdown that’s possible at any time.
FIRST QUARTER TOTAL: Dallas / Detroit OVER 9.5 (-120) — $440 to win $400
Both teams have above average passing offenses, and the Lions home games always seem to produce scoring, so I’ll go OVER this soft number and hope for at least a 7-3 outcome. Similar Lion game last week versus Cincinnati was shattered easily. Good field goal kickers on both teams also helps this prop.
GAME SIDE: NY Giants +5.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300
GAME TOTAL: NY Giants / Philadelphia UNDER 51 (-110) — $550 to win $500
Giants finally got a huge relief with the win, and now have ten days to prepare for rival. Meanwhile, Philadelphia looked awful on offense last week, and gets another home game to rebound. I see a close, hard-fought game here by two desperate teams. Looks lik a field goal either way. Moreover, Giants offense has been a disappointment all season, so I’m not sure they are capable of exploiting Philadelphia soft secondary. On the other hand, Eagles run the ball as good as any team in the league and this I expect will burn lots of clock. As we saw with Dallas-Philadelphia game last week, these divisional games often play different than the more wide open game plans we see in interconference games (Dal-Den, Phila-SD, etc.). I lean dog and under here. Looking 23-20.
GAME SIDE: New Orleans -10.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300
Highly unusual for me to lay double digits, but probably justified here. We now know New Orleans is one of the best teams in the league. Appear due for a blowout after being away from home three weeks. Perfect opponent here with rookie QB, young secondary, playing second straight road game off big divisional win, in very adverse conditions. I look for Saints to rebound strong here after blowing that Patriot game, and running up the score on an outclassed opponent. Buffalo has played admirably all season, but the wheels should come off here.
TEAM TOTAL FIRST HALF: St. Louis OVER 7 (-110) — $550 to win $500 <<<BESTBET>>>
Rams at home on a Monday night. Must see game, for sure. I know bum Bradford is out, leaving someone lik Cleo Lemon to start this week. But I don’t care what the situation is, I’ll take any NFL team at home to break 7 points in a half of football. Seattle has the league’s best defense? Agree. But anything can happen on one play and I’m willing to say that at least we’ll get a TD.
TEASER: New Orleans -5 / Green Bay -1.5 (-110) — $550 to win $500
Saints should handle Bills at home by more than a touchdown, and I can’t see Packers playing soft at Minnesota with all the Vikings offensive problems.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
TEASER: Kansas City -.5 / Baltimore +8 (-110) — $440 to win $400 WON
GAME TOTAL: Tampa Bay / Atlanta OVER 43 (-110) — $330 to win $300 WON
GAME TOTAL: Minnesota / NY Giants OVER 46.5 (-110) — $220 to win $200 LOST
GAME: Philadelphia -2.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300 LOST
GAME: Kansas City -6.5 (-110) — $1,100 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>> LOST
GAME: Jacksonville +7.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400 LOST
FIRST HALF HALF TEAM TOTAL: NY Jets OVER 9.5 (-115) — $345 to win $300 WON
GAME TEAM TOTAL: Cincinnati OVER 22 points (-120) — $600 to win $500 WON
FIRST QUARTER TOTAL: Cincinnati/Detroit OVER 7.5 (-110) — $550 to win $500 <<<BEST BET>>> WON
FIRST QUARTER TOTAL: Chicago/Washington OVER 9.5 (-125) — $375 to win $300 WON
FIRST QUARTER: Jacksonville +.5 (-115) — $550 to win $500 LOST
PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS
DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: +$3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0