My NFL Picks: Week 7
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD
42 WINS — 36 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $8,555.
NET GAIN/LOSS: minus $1,445.
BEST BETS: 5–8–1
Following a brutal start to the season, I’ve rebounded somewhat, posting two strong weeks in a row. Let’s try and keep a good thing going.
LATE SCRATCH: FIRST QUARTER: Tennessee +.5 (-160)
I’ll would normally continue to fade San Francisco with my “go against early in the game” system. But now, others have caught onto this trend. It took a year but the public has caught on. It’s priced higher than any half point dog on the board. 49ers lost again last week in the opening frame and are now 1-5 this season and just 2 covers in last 15 starts with Kaepernick under center. Can’t bet this time laying such a heavy price.
Here are my 11 plays for NFL Week 7.
THIS WEEK’S PLAYS:
TEASER: Kansas City -.5 / Baltimore +8 (-110) — $440 to win $400
Teasing Kansas City down to just win the game in what should be a lop-sided match (Houston starting new QB this week)…..also like Baltimore which is more of an anti-Pittsburgh play. Coming off a huge road win, I’m not sure Steelers are going to put up a lot of points against a Baltimore defense that’s playing pretty well. Ravens also tend to bounce back well and have the edge lately in this heads-up series. Seven of the last eight games between these two teams have been decided by exactly three points.
GAME TOTAL: Tampa Bay / Atlanta OVER 43 (-110) — $330 to win $300
Knee-jerk play, just because I’m now blindly betting all the dome games to fly over the number. Falcons three home games this season have produced 53, 55, and 58 points.
GAME TOTAL: Minnesota / NY Giants OVER 46.5 (-110) — $220 to win $200
More knee jerking. Plus, it’s a MNF game, which tend to be higher scoring than normal. Neither defense seems to be able to stop anyone and even with these sub-par teams, I think we should see some offense.
GAME: Philadelphia -2.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300
I see very little about Dallas that impresses me, especially on the road where they’re 0-2. Add some key defensive players for Cowboys possibly out or not at 100 percent, and this is a must play on the home favorite. Big coming out party at Philadelphia in prime time for Eagles which should be in top form against division rival. Some concerns about Eagles pass defense against QB Romo who is having an excellent season statistically, but the bigger problem will be the Cowboys defense trying to stop the NFL’s best rushing attack per carry, which is the Eagles averaging a whopping 5.2 rushing yards per attempt and also ranks third as the league’s most rushing team. I see the Cowboys defense in for a very long night. Note: Stay off this game if the number hits -3.
GAME: Kansas City -6.5 (-110) — $1,100 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
Houston is a mess right now, and I was able to get this number early in the week. This will likely move up to -7 by game time with news of possible QB change. Houston exxpected to give the backup his first start and he comes into the most hostile spot imaginable, as Chiefs have been wickedly stingy on defense. Two things here make me jump on the public bandwagon fading Houston — that’s that Kubiak has never impressed me as the type of coach that motivates his teams under adversity (always seeming to lose the must-win games). Also, as anyone who watched last week’s St. Louis loss can testify, Houston is starting to look like a team that has given up. Kansas City continues to roll and is probably not being given enough respect at this point. What would this line be if Houston was playing at the other NFL’s undefeated team? Probably 13? I see value, even though it’s not my typical contrarian position. Highest wager of the season, so far.
GAME: Jacksonville +7.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400
Here’s a perfect example of the market probably bottoming out on a team that eventually has to start showing improvement. No team stays utterly non-competitive for 16 straight weeks, so we have to look for spots where they can potentially rise to the occasion, particularly in a market that lacks faith against an opponent that tends to have trouble covering in these conditions. There’s not much to like about Jacksonville, other than these are pro athletes with some pride and they certainly must be determined to stop being the league’s laughing stock. Jags get a Chargers team coming in off huge MNF upset win at home, and on a shorter week must fly three time zones for an early start on the East Coast. San Diego not only didn’t cover in their last game against a hapless opponent, they got stomped by Oakland in a similar spot two weeks ago. Chargers have played a lot of tight games. This is not the kind of offense that blows out opponents. I like Jacksonville not only getting the points, but recommend a moneyline play as well for the brave, priced around $275 right now (won’t be tabulated in record, however).
FIRST HALF HALF TEAM TOTAL: NY Jets OVER 9.5 (-115) — $345 to win $300
Huge game for Jets which I think will show a better effort this time. Tends to be a zig-zag team but also plays its best when cornered and against better teams. Defense might be strong enough to keep Patriots offense on the sidelines somewhat, which gives Jets offense better prospects for scoring more points. Key number here is 9.5, which is just too low for any half decent home team in my estimation. New England’s defensive rankings are nothing special, ranked 14th in the NFL overall.
GAME TEAM TOTAL: Cincinnati OVER 22 points (-120) — $600 to win $500
Detroit’s defense is mediocre at best, facing a team certainly capable of putting up points. Lions allowed 24 and 32 respectively in two games at home. In a game that could turn into shootout, I see this number as a soft obstacle. 23 would be more understandable, and 24 is probably where is put this number.
FIRST QUARTER TOTAL: Cincinnati/Detroit OVER 7.5 (-110) — $550 to win $500 <<<BEST BET>>>
I’m expecting offense on the carpet between two teams capable of producing big plays and points. Reasonable vig to lay here, hoping for at least a 7-3 outcome.
FIRST QUARTER TOTAL: Chicago/Washington OVER 9.5 (-125) — $375 to win $300
Both teams tend to either put up or give up points early. Neither coach is conservative on offense early in the game. This points to an OVER in the first quarter. I’d play it for more, except the vig price has moved.
FIRST QUARTER: Jacksonville +.5 (-115) — $550 to win $500
Bit of a gamble, but I’m willing to take it. Hoping Chargers come in hungover and sleepwalking early in the game. Live disrespected dog playing against overrated soft team coming for early start from West to East. You have to hold your nose with Jacksonville and just bet it.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
FIRST QUARTER: Arizona +3 (-110) — $330 to win $300 WON
FIRST QUARTER: Washington +.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400 <BEST BET> LOST
FIRST HALF: Oakland Team Total OVER 7 (-120) — $360 to win $300 PUSH
FIRST HALF: Tennessee Team Total OVER 6.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300 WON
FIRST HALF: Arizona Team Total OVER 7 (-115) — $345 to win $300 WON
FIRST HALF: Washington Team Total OVER 11.5 (-115) — $480 to win $400 LOST
GAME: Jacksonville Team Total OVER 13 (-115) — $345 to win $300 WON
GAME: Cincinnati -6.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400 LOST
GAME: Pittsburgh +1 (-110) — $330 to win $300 WON
FIRST HALF: Pittsburgh +.5 (-120) — $480 to win $400 WON
GAME: Baltimore +2.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300 WON
FIRST HALF: Baltimore +.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300 LOST
GAME: Carolina/Minnesota OVER 43.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300 WON
TEASER: Baltimore +8.5/Seattle -6.5 (-110) — $550 to win $500 <BEST BET> WON
FIRST HALF: Washington +3 (Even) — $500 to win $500 <BEST BET> LOST
FIRST HALF: San Diego +.5 (-120) — $480 to win $400 WON
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PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS
DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600 3-3
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000
……………..
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: +$3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0