My NFL Picks: Week 6

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD

32 WINS — 31 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $7,435.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  minus $2,565.

BEST BETS:  4–6–1

 

This week’s write-ups will be brief.  There are 16 plays.  See below.

 

LATE PLAYS: 

FIRST QUARTER:  Arizona +3 (-110) — $330 to win $300

San Francisco finally covered a first quarter line last week (thanks to Houston QB Shaub), only the second occasion for them to do so in last 13 games.  This week, getting the FG is more than enough to take the visiting dog here.  Only thing that keeps me off this as a best bet is Arizona is also a slow-starting team.

FIRST QUARTER:  Washington +.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400 <BEST BET>

Unsure exactly how Dallas will react, especially early in this critical game, coming off tough loss at home versus Denver last week.  A few things favor Washington — they are coming off a win and perhaps turned things around and were also embarrassed in their last night game (vs. Philadelphia) and with a bye to prepare for their division rival, I expect they’ll be ready with a game plan against a defense that gave up 51 points last week.  Tony Romo is also well-below average against Redskins historically.

 

 

EARLY PLAYS:

FIRST HALF:  Oakland Team Total OVER 7 (-120) — $360 to win $300

I’ll take just about any NFL team to score 7+ in a half of football, especially since Oakland has shown dramatic improvement on offense.  I know — betting on QB T. Pryor is painful, but I have to pull the trigger here.  Chiefs may be riding a little too high and the defense may be getting a little too much respect.  I’d make this at least 7.5.

FIRST HALF:  Tennessee Team Total OVER 6.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300

I know Seattle is a tough place to play, probably the NFL’s top home field advantage.  But once again, we have to take the proposition Seattle could turn the ball over or Tennessee can generate at least one TD drive in 30 minutes of football.  Line is ridiculously low because of QB change, bu Fitzpatrick certainly capable of putting up some average numbers, which is all it will take to bust the 6.5.

FIRST HALF:  Arizona Team Total OVER 7 (-115) — $345 to win $300

See comments above.  San Francisco is the best tackling team in the NFL based on what I’ve seen.  But have to expect Cards can put it in the end zone at least once in the first half.  Right?  Someone please agree with me.

FIRST HALF:  Washington Team Total OVER 11.5 (-115) — $480 to win $400

Dallas defense isn’t worthy of this kind of respect, especially since Washington comes in with plenty of time to prepare and a historical record which is favorable in Dallas.  I also like the Skins moving to a turf field (off grass for first time this season), where they performed exceedingly well last year.  This team is built for speed and the changing surface could do them good.  Love getting a win on 13+ for points scored against a defense with lots of question marks.

GAME:  Jacksonville Team Total OVER 13 (-115) — $345 to win $300

I know, kick me in the ass and call me crazy,  I’m counting on a lazy performance by a defense that gave up 48 points last week to Dallas.  If Jacksonville could tag 20 points at St. Louis, I expect they can also post something like that this week.  All depends on how seriously Denver takes this game, and I’m guessing they may play some reserves late.  Show some pride, Jags.  At least hit 14.

GAME:  Cincinnati -6.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400

Love fading an opposing QB signed off the practice squad which is the situation for the Bills.  I make it a rule never to lay points on the road, but this is an exception.  Buffalo plays tough at home, but Cincy might be in a roll mode now and I think they have too many offensive weapons to be stopped.

GAME:  Pittsburgh +1 (-110) — $330 to win $300

Ideal case of one team coming off a high (road win upset) versus a team which has been a major disappointment coming off its bye week.  History favors us here.  Winless teams coming off bye week are like 70 percent against the spread, so this is enough to put money on the Steelers, even as bad as they have looked, so far.  Jets are a joke at 3-2 and Steelers could not have played worse this season.  This should regress to the mean and the bye week for Steelers makes this a all-hands-on-deck kind of game.

FIRST HALF:  Pittsburgh +.5 (-120) — $480 to win $400

Here’s a case where *if* the Steelers have prepared properly with two weeks between games, they should at least be competitive in the 1H.  I’ll take the half point and lay a reasonable price against a team we still aren’t sure about offensively.

GAME:  Baltimore +2.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300

Would love to get the Ravens +3, and suggest the buy-up option, if available.  But even at +2.5 this is a solid play.  Baltimore is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and Green Bay has lost like four in a row on the road.  Case of home team advantage, plus we get some bonus points.

FIRST HALF:  Baltimore +.5 (-120) — $360 to win $300

See comments above.  Also like Ravens defense in this spot (which has played better than most expected), versus Packers offensive line which has some holes.  Concern is with Ravens offense.

GAME:  Carolina/Minnesota OVER 43.5 (-110) — $330 to win $300

Everyone who reads my picks regularly knows my bias for betting dome games to go OVER the total.  I pretty much stopped capping these games and just fire.  Pretty simple formula that tends to produce a few more wins than losses.  Isn’t Minnesota like 5-0 to the OVER this season?

TEASER:  Baltimore +8.5/Seattle -6.5 (-110) — $550 to win $500 <BEST BET>

Good teaser picking up some key numbers.  You have to believe Baltimore won’t get blown out at home.  That simply doesn’t happen.  Meanwhile, laying anything less than a TD with Seattle at home seems like an absolute bargain since they rout just about every opponent in this situation.  Seahawks are especially attractive now coming off a loss (a game they really won, if you watched it).

FIRST HALF:  Washington +3 (Even) — $500 to win $500 <BEST BET>

Love Redskins getting the field goal in the first half.  Once again, we are counting on Washington to come in better prepared versus its division rival, which might still be licking its wounds from last week’s ass kicking.

FIRST HALF:  San Diego +.5 (-120) — $480 to win $400

As much as I like the Colts (I touted them OVER in wins this season when the entire world was on the other side), this is a horrible spot for them.  I expect San Diego to come with everything in this game pus the kitchen sink.  It’s a must win game for the MNF home dog.  But rather than play the game, I think the better value is on the 1H, getting points.  This isn’t the soft sorry ass Chargers we have seen for the last decade.  They have been gutsy in every game this season.  Meanwhile, Colts strike me as a very lucky team to be where they are right now.  Take this gift.

 

 

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

FIRST QUARTER — Houston +.5 (-115) — $815 to win $700    <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — LOST

FIRST QUARTER — Atlanta -.5 (-130) vs. NY Jets — $910 to win $700   <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>  — LOST

GAME WAGER — Baltimore +3 (-120) — $720 to win $600    <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WON

GAME TOTAL — Jacksonville/St. Louis OVER 41 (-110) — $330 to win $300 — WON

GAME TOTAL — Carolina/Arizona OVER 42 (-110) — $440 to win $400 — LOST

GAME TOTAL — NY Jets/Atlanta OVER 43.5 (-110) –$440 to win $400 — WON

GAME WAGER — Atlanta -9.5 (-110) — $550 to win $500 — LOST

TEAM TOTAL — Atlanta OVER 27 (-110) — $330 to win $300 — WON

6-POINT TEASER — Baltimore +9/Arizona +8.5 (-110) — $660 to win $600 — WON

6-POINT TEASER — Baltimore +9/Indianapolis +9 (-110) — $660 to win $600 — WON

TEAM TOTAL — St. Louis OVER 26 (-110) — $770 to win $700    <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WON

TEAM TOTAL — NY Giants UNDER 27.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400 — WON

………………..

PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS

DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600  looking good, ahead of pace
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000   loser
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500   ahead of pace
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575  likely a winner
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000   likely a winner
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400   looking tough, behind pace
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000  slightly ahead of pace
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800   looks solid
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000  might have to sweat, but sight on pace for 5-6 wins

……………..

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  +$3,460

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  14-7-0

FIRST QUARTER:  Atlanta -.5 (-130) vs. NY Jets — $910 to win $700   <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>