My NFL Picks: Week 5

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD

24 WINS — 27 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $6,250.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  minus $3,750.

BEST BETS:  2–4–1

The season is now a quarter done.  Still a long way to go.

Lots of extra attention was spent this week on FIRST QUARTER BETTING.  See write ups below.

So far, I’ve made 12 plays.  There are four BEST BETS.  I also segregated the late plays as those have been performing very well, while the early plays have performed miserably.  Here are my preferred picks for NFL Week 5:

LATE PLAYS: 

No more plays this week.

FIRST QUARTER:  Atlanta -.5 (-130) vs. NY Jets — $910 to win $700   <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

I’ve been doing considerable research on first quarters. While previous results don’t necessarily dictate future outcomes, I believe there’s relevance to numbers and game preparation.  Some coaches/coordinators/quarterbacks come out aggressively.  Others like to play conservative and then make adjustments as the game plays out.  This is especially true with less-experienced starting quarterbacks..  Here’s a prime example of a game with two very different team mentalities in the first quarter.  Looking at the four games played this season, ATL is scoring 8.5 points per 1Q (2nd best in the NFL despite a 1-3 record).  NY Jets are scoring 3 points per 1Q, which ranks 25th.  This fits a well established pattern dating back three seasons.  I stress THREE seasons here because that’s pretty much the length of time for consistency in coaching and starters.  Since personnel is somewhat similar 2010 to present for both teams, I believe these numbers are significant.

2012 — ATL 6.2 points average vs. NYJ 3.6 points average

2011 — ATL 7.1 points average vs. NYJ 3.8 points average

2010 — ATL 4.5 points average vs. NYJ 1.9 points average

This shows ATL has been consistently outscoring NYJ as a first quarter team over the past 3.25 seasons (even though NYJ were a contending team at least two of those seasons).

If we add the MNF home team coming off a loss, I think this points to a very strong play on the Falcons in the first quarter.

EARLY PLAYS:

FIRST QUARTER WAGER — Houston +.5 (-115) — $815 to win $700    <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

I continue to marvel that no one seems to be betting what’s been pure gold.  That is, to bet against the San Francisco 49ers in the first quarter in every game.

I started touting this late last season and then touted this as the best prop on the board before the season started, publicly stating on a podcast with Wicked Chops and Gavin Smith in early September that this was going to be a sure moneymaker.

Well, it’s gone a perfect 4-0 so far this season.  Since C. Kaepernick has been the starter, the 49ers have been a dreadful first quarter performer, going a whopping 1-10 against the line in 11 games — the lone cover coming in a 7-0 first quarter score at New England late last November (when they fumbled 3 times).  What’s best about this prop is, we are just about always GETTING points by taking the other side, since this is a very public team at the moment.  Yet San Francisco averages less than 3 points per game in the 1Q (since Kaepernick started).  I don’t know how you can’t continue to fade this team in every similar situation.

This week, we get a very live Houston team coming off a brutally disappointing loss where they vastly outplayed Seattle.  Although on the road this week, this should be a favorable spot for the dog if you can stomach wagering on M. Shaub after last week’s meltdown.

GAME WAGER — Baltimore +3 (-120) — $720 to win $600    <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

I expect Ravens will come better prepared in their second straight road game, following a mistake-filled performance last week at Buffalo.  Ravens still could/should have won that game, despite QB J. Flacco’s five interceptions.  Ravens defense appears to be just as good as it ever was based on yards and points against so far this season, and if the offense can just control the ball, we probably have the better team here getting points.  Miami comes off a shorter week and thier first loss.  I’m not sure this young team can turn things around that quickly versus a team that should be more focused coming off a loss.  More veteran team, should be focused, probably more important to the Super Bowl champs.  In a close game, you have to take the field goal.  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

GAME TOTAL — Jacksonville/St. Louis OVER 41 (-110) — $330 to win $300

I’ve just started blindly betting these dome games to go OVER, no matter who’s playing or what the situation.  This has become a passing league and with ideal conditions indoors (no wind), scoring seems  a little easier, even when bad teams play.  Extra reason to bet OVER this game is I expect Rams will try to make some kind of statement, continuing to put up points at every opportunity in order to gel the offfense.  If Jax is as bad as we think they might be, the Rams should get into the 30s at home.  I also like the Rams to put up points after a horrific game by QB S Bradford, plus ten days of prep time (Rams played the previous Thursday).  I look for things to get out of control in the 4th quarter and hope for a 38-10 kind of game.

GAME TOTAL — Carolina/Arizona OVER 42 (-110) — $440 to win $400

Bettors who have followed my plays over the years know I have a soft spot for betting most of the Cardinals home games OVER.  Something about that stadium, the grass field, the dry weather that make conditions better for offenses.  Arizona has posted two sub-par offense performaces in a row and plays only their second home game after three on the road.  I look for more of a breakout game this week in what both teams will view as a must win.  On the other side, Carolina finally unleashed the offense two weeks ago and spread the ball out more versus NYG and likely come in with just an aggressive approach again.  I can’t see Carolina going back to the conservative offense that put them into an 0-2 hole.  Looking for a more wide open 27-24 type of game, either way.

GAME TOTAL — NY Jets/Atlanta OVER 43.5 (-110) –$440 to win $400

GAME WAGER — Atlanta -9.5 (-110) — $550 to win $500

TEAM TOTAL — Atlanta OVER 27 (-110) — $330 to win $300

See my previous comments about dome games.  Previous two Falcons’ home games this season were shootouts.  I like this even more given that it’s played on MNF, which is the showcase game which tends to score a little higher than average.  Falcons are another team that was somewhat embarrassed the previous week, losing in a shootout against New England.  Here’s their second straight home night game, this time against what should be an outmatched opponent.  This is a real statement game for the Falcons and as often as they disappoint in this role as a favorite, I think there’s too much talent and too much unfavorable atmosphere for a rookie QB on the road.  I’m looking for a blowout here.

6-POINT TEASER — Baltimore +9/Arizona +8.5 (-110) — $660 to win $600

Ravens very live on the road in what appears to be a toss up game, give me the Wong Teaser numbers with the solid and hopefully motivated team.  Also like Cardinals coming back home at 2-2 versus opponent that’s still a little overrated.  Glad to Wong Teaser this nice dog as well.

6-POINT TEASER — Baltimore +9/Indianapolis +9 (-110) — $660 to win $600

Enough said about Baltimore….also looks to be a good spot for Colts at home after two big road wins.  Seattle has looked miserable on offense in its two road games.  Despite the 4-0 record, this team is more like 2-2 without the idiotic fumble and interception on those two road wins.  Hard to see Seattle blowing anyone out on the road.  At home, different story and a different team.  Nice with the home team capable of winning outright.

TEAM TOTAL — St. Louis OVER 26 (-110) — $770 to win $700    <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

Rams have been one of the years biggest busts, not only losing at 1-3 but looking terrible in the process.  QB S. Bradford has been painful to watch.  However, the perfect punching bag finally comes to town.  Given 10-days preparation time and Jacksonville basically getting murdered for 29+ points in all four games, even the lowly Rams should be able to post some points at home on the carpet with all the time to get ready.  If St. Louis loses this game, I’m going to jump off a bridge.

TEAM TOTAL — NY Giants UNDER 27.5 (-110) — $440 to win $400

Late moved from 27 to 27.5, which gives us better value.  We all know how bad the Eagles pass defense has been.  But here’s finally a more favorable situation.  The NY Giants offense line is an absolute disaster.  I don’t think you fix those problems quickly, even coming off a bye week.  The talent is simply not there.  The running game is non-existent.  And QB E. Manning appears shaken as a starter for the first time in his career.  No one can blame him since he lacks protection.  This line is out of whack and should be closer to 24, if even that high.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

TEAM TOTAL:  Baltimore OVER 24 — $330 to win $300  *****LOST

FIRST QUARTER — Chicago +.5 (-140)   $420 to win $300*****WON

FIRST QUARTER — Chicago/Detroit OVER 9.5 (-110)  $330 to win $300 *****LOST

FIRST QUARTER — NY Giants +.5 (-125)   $375 to win $300 *****WON

FIRST QUARTER — Miami/New Orleans OVER 7.5 (-120)  $480 to win $400  *****WON

FIRST QUARTER — New England/Atlanta OVER 9.5 (-115)  <<<BEST BET>>>  $575 to win $500 *****LOST

FIRST HALF — Chicago/Detroit OVER 23.5 (-120)  <<<BEST BET>>>  $550 to win $500 *****WON

PROP — MOST PASSING YARDS:  Eli Manning (-34 yards) vs Alex Smith  $330 to win $300  *****LOST

PROP — NY Giants TEAM TOTAL OVER 20 POINTS (-115)  $440 to win $400  *****LOST

6-POINT TEASER — Minnesota +8.5 / Arizona +7.5 — $550 to win $500  *****WON

6-POINT TEASER — Minnesota +8.5 / Houston +8 — <<<BEST BET>>>  $770 to win $700 *****WON

GAME — Houston +2 — $440 to win $400  *****LOST

GAME — Cleveland +3.5 — $330 to win $300  *****WON

GAME — Jacksonville +9.5 — $440 to win $400  *****LOST

GAME — Atlanta -2 — $440 to win $400 *****LOST

GAME TOTAL — Philadelphia/Denver UNDER 58.5 — $440 to win $400   *****LOST

………………..

PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS

DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000

……………..

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  +$3,460

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  14-7-0