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Posted by on Jan 12, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Picks — Divisional Round Playoffs

 Atlanta Falcons



92 WINS – 85 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 25.6 units / 1 unit = $100)




Comments:  3-1 last week, although I was very lucky to win the Cincinnati first-half wager.  Moving on to the next round, I’m making three plays this week.  I will also play Houston is the line hits +10.  But this will not be counted in the results at the site (current line is New England -9.5).


ATLANTA -2.5 vs. SEATTLE (-120) — for 8 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

Line opened as low as -1 in some places, and quickly went up to -2.  It’s -2.5 with heavy juice and money is still flowing in on the Falcons.  Highly advisable to bet this soon, before it hits -3 by gametime.  This wager is purely situational.  Even a line of -3 is suggesting these are two equal teams (three points for home field advantage).  As impressive as Seattle has been the last two months, the better overall team is still Atlanta.  Several things favor them this week, which in my view should have this line closer to -4.  I don’t recall any conference top seed game to be lined this low as a home favorite in a divisional playoff game.  The week’s rest doesn’t always help teams, but I think it favors the Falcons strongly as the team probably need a break to refocus.  Seattle also comes in with a terrible travel disadvantage, making three cross country flights in eight days.  That’s not always a backbreaker — but going East is usually tougher for the road team.  Seattle also enters some unfamilair territory here, going inside the dome where home crowd will help Falcons.  I also like Atlanta’s pass-heavy attack, which should be successful at home.  Falcons have been a bust in the playoffs in recent years, but they have usually had to face the conference’s best team, and therefore struggled.  They’re not inferior in this spot and with everyone in Atlanta talking about this game being the most important of the Mike Smith era, I think his team rises to the occasion.  The wear and tear of the Washington game last week is going to weigh in on the Seahawks as his game progresses and given a generously low number, I think we have to take the rested, superior favorite at what appears to be a bargain price. 

BALTIMORE / DENVER UNDER 46 (-110) — for 4 units

I expect the Ravens game plan is going to be to milk this clock for every minute possible.  This team can’t win a shootout on the road with Manning’s offense, so the priority will be on running, safe passes, and keeping Denver’s offense off the field.  Two more things points to an under — Flacco’s historically poor playoff performances and Manning’s below average production and inconsistency when playing late season games outdoors.  I realize most of those stats applied to the old days of the dome-era Colts.  But until I see Manning post some impressive numbers in winter weather, I’m going to fade offensive production for both teams.  Add in some possible blustery snow and cold for Saturday at Denver, and this game appears headed for and UNDER.  Playable as long as number stays 45+.


FIRST QUARTER — GREEN BAY +.5 vs SAN FRANCISCO (-140) — for 4 units

I’m hoping and expecting QB Kaepernick to have some jitters during the opening quarter, as he’s done in the last four games.  Perhaps Kaepernick loosens up as the game goes along, but his early numbers (and those of the 49er offense) haven’t been good — losing 0-3 to Arizona, losing 0-14 to Seattle, beating New England 7-0, tied 0-0 to Miami in last month.  That’s 7 points in FOUR games.  In the New England game, Kaepernick fumbled in the first half three times.  I’ll fade that kind of record anytime (magnified by a young unproven QB in his first playoff game), especially playing versus an offense that can match anything the 49ers produce.  I don’t like laying heavy juice, but Ill go along in this spot with enough confidence that Green Bay is going to be able to match San Francisco point for point.


LAST WEEK’S WAGERS:  3-1 for net gain of 6.35 units

CINCINNATI +4.5 at HOUSTON (-115) — for 6 units  <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — LOST 6.9 units

FIRST HALF — CINCINNATI +3 (-115) — for 4 units — WON 4 units

TEASER — CINCINNATI +10.5 / BALTIMORE -1 (-110) — for 4 units — WON 4 units

SEATTLE -3 (+105) at WASHINGTON (+105) — for 5 units — WON 5.25 units

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