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Posted by on Jan 28, 2023 in Blog, Essays | 0 comments

NFL Conference Championship Games — Analysis and Picks

 

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NFL WAGERING RECORD (2022-23)
138 Wins
110 Losses
0 Pushes

Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $13,388.
Net Gain/Loss: + $3,388.

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Three more games to go.

Here are my picks for the two conference championship games.

Also, here’s a 45-minute clip of Teddy Sevransky’s sports gambling show on Sirius XM.  I was a guest on this week’s program.  We discussed NFL betting and I sides-totals-props for Sunday’s games.

TO LISTEN TO THE SHOW — CLICK HERE

(Note: If it’s too long, you can always advance through the interview)

 

 

SFO-PHI: I was going to skip betting a side at +2.5, but when the line moved to a FG, I jumped on SFO. The 49ers’ 10-game win streak including 9/10 covers combined with the Eagles going just 1-4 ATS in last five games compels me to take the points with the NFL’s #1-ranked defense.  If The 49ers defense can shut down Dallas, they are certainly capable of the same vs. Philadelphia. On props, I like both TEs to go OVER on catches and yardage, as they’ll be the QB safety valves to two aggressive defenses with solid pass rushes.  Goedert has gone over his yardage total in 10/13. He’s caught 8-7-7 passes in three career playoff games. Kittle has become increasingly important to QB Purdy and is coming off a game where he had the key play, which likely means Purdy will look to him again in times of pressure.

CIN-KC: The Bengals have been on a monster ATS run, going 21-5 since Oct. of last season. They’re also 6-1 in playoff games with Burrow at QB.  Beating Buffalo (make that whipping Buffalo) as the road team last week was a huge confidence boost.  Also, Cincy has beaten the mighty Chiefs in three straight games.  Add some concerns about QB Mahomes *not* being 100 percent healthy, and this bet on the Bengals is a no-brainer. On props, Ja’Marr Chase has been the favorite WR target for 10 weeks now, going 7+ receptions in 9/10 games.  Versus a vulnerable KC secondary that often gives up yardage and big plays, I’ll take OVER on Chase’s receiving props.

 

FINAL PLAYS:

San Francisco +3 vs. Philadelphia (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200

Prop: Dallas Goedert (PHI) OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200

Prop: Dallas Goedert (PHI) OVER 4.5 total receptions (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200

Cincinnati +1.5 vs.Kansas City (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

Prop: Ja’Marr Chase OVER 83.5 receiving yards (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200

Prop: Ja’Marr Chase OVER 7 total receptions (-130) — Risking $260 to win $200

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