NFL 2019: Week #11
Spread and total numbers heading into NFL Week #11:
Road Teams: 81 — 64 — 3 ATS
Home Teams: 64 — 81 — 3 ATS
All Favorites: 60 – 85 — 3 A TS
All Underdogs: 85 — 60 — 3 ATS
Home Favorites: 37 — 58 — 3 ATS
Home Underdogs: 27 — 23 — 0 ATS
Road Favorites: 23 — 27 — 0 ATS
Road Underdogs: 58 — 37 — 3 ATS
OVERS/UNDERS: 72 — 76 — 0
2019 NFL WAGERING RECORD
Wins — Losses — Pushes 26 — 31 — 0
Starting Bankroll: $ 8,198.
Current Bankroll: $6,158. (- $1,435.)
Last Week’s Results (Week #9): 2 — 1 — 0 (+ $225.)
THIS WEEK’S WAGERS: This week, I’ve made 6 wagers. I’m laying $2,360. to win $2,100. Here are the plays (listed at -110 unless noted otherwise):
Tampa Bay +5.5 vs. New Orleans — Laying $440 to win $400
Carolina -4 vs. Atlanta — Laying $440 to win $400
Dallas -6.5 vs. Detroit (-115) — Laying $460 to win $400
Teaser: Jacksonville +8 / Oakland -6.5 (-120) — Laying $360 to win $300
First Half: Miami +3.5 vs. Buffalo — Laying $330 to win $300
Kansas City / LA Chargers OVER 52 — Laying $330 to win $300
THOUGHTS ON ALL GAMES:
DAL -7 at DET (Total–47): I got this number at DAL -6.5 which is nice to be inside a touchdown. However, I did lay -115. Lions are starting backup QB Driskell since Stafford is not fully recovered. Stafford might not produce many quality wins, but the dropoff at QB here is huge for the Lions, and probably worth 4 points to the spread. If DET has any strengths it’s with their passing game and that should take a serious downturn in the game. DAL is never a bargain and an even worse prospect for betting when they desperately need the win. But on paper, the Cowboys are the far superior team and coming off a loss in which they were dominated against Vikings a week ago, should be focused. Meanwhile, Lions’ season is probably over with the loss to Chicago last week. Not only are Lions likely deflated, but they’re outclassed in just about every phase of this matchup, other than coaching. The DAL line at -6.5 (-115) was enough to make me pull the trigger with a wager.
NOR – 5.5 at TAM (Total–50): I like the feisty Bucs getting points here not just because they’re a home division dog, but also as a fade against the Saints, who aren’t the dominant offense lately we’re used to seeing during the Payton-Brees era. NOR was humiliated at home last week, which may have exposed some inconsistencies with the offense. After a tough stretch of opponents in September, NOR has faced the last five foes with a combined 15-27 record. TAM is just 3-6 SU, but has been competitive in most games, keeping things close. Coming off a win and riding some much-needed confidence, look for TAM to be focused in their biggest game of the season at home against a division rival. Bucs have no problem scoring points, with (scoring-wise) one of the best units in the NFL. Obviously, the Bucs defense is a reason for grave concern. But NOR isn’t in synch at the moment and outdoors on natural grass probably isn’t the ideal setting for a blowout road win. In what should be a close game, I’ll take a too-generous number of points.
ATL +4.5 at CAR (Total–49.5): Another NFC South rivalry game that’s critical to the home team Panthers. After losing the first two games of the season, CAR has gone 6-2 SU, with the two defeats to 49ers and Packers on the road (no shame in that). CAR tends to beat the teams it should, and ATL qualifies as a team with multiple disadvantages. ATL’s stunning upset at Saints last week was a shocker, but that also takes off some pressure this week and bad teams off a win don’t usually fare well in back-to-back road games. Dismissing the inexplicable win at New Orleans, ATL defense has been horrid. I expect we’ll see the “real” Falcons back in action this week, that gave up 34 to the Cardinals, 53 to the Texans, and 37 to the Rams. Falcons are a woeful 5-16 ATS on the road since the Super Bowl meltdown three years ago. Panthers could be just a bit undervalued here, and that Falcons’ win last week probably pushed this number at least 2 points. I’ll take the 5-4 team in the playoff hunt laying well under a TD against a 2-7 team that’s perhaps just another loss or two from axing the head coach. Also lean UNDER the total as 9 of last 11 in this series have gone beneath the number.
JAX +2.5 at IND (Total–43): Colts are in the final stretch of the 4 out of last 5 games at home, which included last week’s disastrous loss to Miami. Colts will apparently return to Brissett at QB, which certainly helps prospects. However, IND has simply been too inconsistent at home — with losses to Dolphins and Raiders, a false win over Broncos, a 3-point win over Falcons and a solid win over Texans. That’s just one quality win in five home games. Now, with QB coming off an injury and facing an opponent that was embarrassed its previous outing, I predict the Colts will have their hands full. JAX comes off the bye with two weeks to prepare, so I’m betting the underdog here, which has gone 3-1 ATS on the road this season. JAX has also dominated this series lately, going 7-0-1 ATS vs. Colts. Note that since I couldn’t find +3 earlier (it’s now available in some places juiced to -120), I opted to tease the Jaguars to +8 (got that number at reduced juice). Hence, I have JAX in the teaser (along with Oakland).
DEN +10 at MIN (Total–40.5): I wanted to bet the dog here, figuring Vikings could be fat and happy (and ripe for a possible upset) after the Dallas win last week. But MIN is on a roll now, on both sides of the ball and this isn’t a team I want to bet against at the moment, especially since DEN is starting an unproven QB with one NFL start. DEN is also giving up alarming number of QB sacks — 15 in the last three games, which doesn’t help prospects for young QB in a road game. Vikings also enjoy a solid home edge and are a perfect 4-0 this season, 3-1 ATS. Total at 40.5 is tempting to bet UNDER since these are two of the better units in the NFL DEN defense, in particular, has been stellar considering they’ve had so little help from offense in time of possession, etc. I suspect DEN defense will catch MIN napping in this game, keep things close, and the game falls under the total. But no wager for me.
NYJ +2.5 at WAS (Total–38.5): I wanted to jump on NYJ early and almost make the bet. Line moved up to +2.5 from +1 early, and I couldn’t figure out why. WAS offense has been horrendous under interim coach Callahan, setting near-records for futility. Aside from their 17-point outburst vs. Miami, Redskins have put up 3, 7, 0, 9, and 9 their last six games. That’s vomit worthy. So, I’m not sure what Redskins’ backers are seeing. Meanwhile, it’s hard to sell the idea the Jets are a team worth betting on, but they did beat the crosstown Giants last week and at least show some signs of being able to score points. Perhaps there’s some notion the bye will help Washington here, but I don’t see it. Jets are probably worth a wager, but I didn’t bet it (so far) with some other attractive bets on the board. I may come to regret my caution. Lowest total on the board this week, at 38 in some places.
BUF -6.5 at MIA (Total–40.5): Guess which team in the hottest pick against the spread over the past five weeks? Try this: Miami. They’re 5-0, with two outright wins as underdogs (Greg Dinkin, please order some wine tonight to go along with your special helping of crow). Explaining why I’m betting the Dolphins doesn’t take a lot of words. I’m just sticking with the hot hand here, and am glad to take the home dog against a division rival coming off a road loss. Miami kept things close and actually led the Bills much of the game in the first meeting (before losing by 10). If anything, MIA is probably a better team now than then, so I’ll take the Dolphins riding an unforeseen two-game winning streak. However, since I couldn’t capture the +7 anywhere, I opted instead to go with the Dolphins getting +3.5 in the first half. Certainly, Dolphins will be charged up for this contest and hopefully can keep it close going into halftime.
HOU +4.5 at BAL (Total–51.5): This looks to be one of the best games of the week, with two exciting playoff contenders who can score points. I lean towards the Ravens here based on a little more consistency. Coaching edge also to the Ravens. But HOU does come in off the bye with some extra rest in a laugher of a win two weeks ago. So, that keeps me off the game. Very solid lean on BAL at -4, which no longer appears to be available. Also, lean UNDER purely as a contrarian. Figuring one of these defenses will step up this week and be the difference.
ARZ +9.5 at SFO (Total–44): Line dropped off the +10, which tells me Cardinals are attracting some late money. I’ve been bullish on ARZ much of the season and they certainly deserve a solid look with a 7-3 ATS record overall, including a 4-1 ATS record on the road. What makes me pass is not knowing how SFO will react off a loss in the best game of the year, an overtime thriller on MNF. We’re unaccustomed to seeing the 49ers in this spot. Might there be some hangover effect coming off the loss? Or, could SFO absolutely shut down the visitor and win easily by double digits. Both scenarios play equally in my head, so this game is a pass. However, I do lean OVER this total. Arizona is 6-4 to the OVER and SFO has exceeded the number in three straight.
NWE -4 at PHI (Total–44.5): Lots of respected handicappers tout the Eagles in this game, reported to be fully healthy for the first time all season. Clearly, this is a perfect spot for PHI back to full strength. However, NWE rarely loses back-to-back games and the Patriots should be in a sour mood coming off the Baltimore loss a few weeks ago, followed by a bye. Also, NWE is 10-4 ATS dating back to last December, and 13-1 SU. Those aren’t numbers I want to fade. I do think this is too many points to give a pretty solid Eagles team that should be fully prepared. Laying -3 seems to be the max line here, tops. But this game should also be volatile, with two excellent QBs and plenty of receiving targets. Lean to the OVER.
CIN +12.5 at OAK (Total–48.5): Raiders will be a team to fade at some point, but not this week. A few weeks ago, when OAK was 3-4, I predicted they would be in first place by end of November. If they win here, they’re 6-4, in first place, tied with KC. No way Raiders don’t roll up points here in third consecutive home game against a vastly outmatched opponent. I do think this line is just a little high, so I’m not touching the Raiders in the highly unusual spot of laying nearly two touchdowns. But I do see such a disparity in talent and motivation that laying -6.5 on the teaser is worth a bet. It’s critical to get beneath a TD, so laying -6.5 was the perfect number to draw me in. OAK offense has continuously improved and should tag plenty of points on the Bengals. Raiders’ main vulnerability is pass defense, but CIN appears incapable of taking advantage of this with QB Ryan Finley starting in what will be his fourth NFL start.
CHI +6.5 at LAR (Total–40): Rams have regressed and look nothing like the NFC champions from last season. I’ve burned enough money with this team, which is now 5-4 SU. Offense is struggling. Offensive line is reportedly in shambles. Rams running game is terrible, ranks 27th in the NFL at just 3.2 YPP. Defense looks to be back in form, and gets an easy opponent with the punchless Bears this week. Lowest home total on a Rams game since they’ve been back in Los Angeles, justified since CHI doesn’t score and the LAR defense has allowed just 16 PPG on average in past four contests. Rams have gone 6-3 to the UNDER. Bears have gone 6-3 to the UNDER, a combined 66 pct. to the low side of totals. Number has adjusted here but perhaps still isn’t quite low enough. Lean UNDER based on these recent trends.
KC-4 at LAC (Total–52): Rare for me to bet OVER a high total like this, but I think it’s well worth a play on a MNF game in perfect conditions with two prolific QBs able to produce points in the annual showcase game in Mexico City. Chiefs have gone 7-3 to the OVER this season, but totals don’t appear to be adjusting any higher. Should be a do or die game for the Chargers, which spanked GB in last game and then followed that up with a heartbreaking loss to OAK in final minute. I think this game turns into a shootout once either team take any significant lead. More of feeling here, than anything that’s data-driven. This is only the third-game NFL game in Mexico, which is at 7,200 alt. Thinking the defenses may tire more quickly in a game with two teams having legit passing threats.
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Season Record To-Date: 87-62-1
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