My Thoughts on Presidential Betting Markets

 

 

MY THOUGHTS ON PRESIDENTIAL BETTING MARKETS:

“FOLLOW THE MONEY”

As national political polls become more suspect and often stratified, global betting markets (arguably) have become a more accurate snapshot of the electorate’s current leanings.

I’m convinced political bettors comprise a far more sophisticated market than sports bettors. Indeed, betting markets and their reliability is notoriously inaccurate in many sporting contests. However, I also believe they’re far more dependable in elections. This is because the composition and characteristics of bettors is significantly different. While an overwhelming percentage of the sports betting market is swayed by factors like personal bias, mass emotions, occasional disinformation, and certainly ignorance, by contrast, political bettors are far more “data and fact” driven. In short, casual bettors in other countries aren’t political wonks betting on either Harris or Trump (or any election in any country). Of course, this is an open question which is difficult to assess with evidence because political betting isn’t legal inside the United States. All such markets are based overseas.

As things stand now, Harris is enjoying her best showing as a favorite versus Trump. Moreover, unless there’s another presidential debate, or a breaking scandal, or another unforeseen possible game changer, global betting markets are unlikely to move much in either direction as election day nears. Inertia simply becomes too powerful to overcome without some stimulating event. However, I would also look for an uptick in Harris’ price if she continues to poll ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania. That’s probably the biggest bellwether of direction trends in this election.

Of course, betting markets are sometimes wrong (recall 2016). But as data and prediction models also improve, I do believe betting markets will get more reliable over time. As they say, just follow the money.