I’ve Got a Bridge in Baltimore for Sale — Cheap (My NFL Week 10 Picks)
NOLAN DALLA: 2014 NFL SEASON RECORD (through end of Week 9)
55 WINS – 55 LOSSES — 1 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $3,865.
NET GAIN/LOSS: – $6,135.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 5 – 9 – 1
I’ve got a bridge in Baltimore for sale.
And, I’m willing to make someone a hell of a deal. Cash buyers only.
Today, I’m doing my annual “bridge jumper” special. See — this is what you call “sports betting tilt.” If my key team loses, I’ll be heading for the bridge. Then, jumping off. Listen for a big splash around 4:15 pm Sunday. Do not resuscitate.
My bridge jumper is the famed “teaser wheel,” which is to my handicapping what a .45 Magnum is to “Dirty Harry.”
Yes, this punk feels lucky.
All the stars line up on the Baltimore Ravens. Here it goes….
THIS WEEKS PICKS: 22 wagers
(All 7-point teasers at -140 — Ties Push)
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Dallas (pick) $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Jacksonville +14 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Miami +9.5 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Detroit +4.5 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Kansas City +5 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Buffalo +9 <<<BEST BET>>> $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Pittsburgh +3.5 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with San Francisco +12 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with New Orleans +2 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with NY Jets +10.5 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Atlanta +4 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Tampa Bay +10 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Denver -4.5 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Oakland +18.5 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with St. Louis +13.5 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Arizona +.5 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with NY Giants +16 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Seattle -2 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Chicago +14 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Green Bay (pick) $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Carolina +14 $175 to win $125
Teaser: Baltimore -2.5 with Philadelphia (pick) $175 to win $125
Note: There’s actually a bit of logic with the teaser wheel based on this week’s numbers. We are capturing several key numbers in NFL betting (3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14) including the critical win on -3 with the key team Baltimore.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS: 3 wins, 6 losses (-$2,270)
Teaser: San Diego +8.5 with Houston +8.5 — $1,650 to win $1,500 <<<BEST BET>>> ……….LOST
First Half: San Diego +1 vs. Miami — $550 to win $500 ……….LOST
Team Total: Jacksonville UNDER 16.5 — $330 to win $300 ……….LOST
Philadelphia/Houston UNDER 48.5 — $550 to win $500 ……….LOST
First Half: Philadelphia/Houston UNDER 24.5 — $330 to win $300 ……….LOST
NY Jets/Kansas City OVER 41.5 — $660 to win $600 ……….LOST
New England +3 vs. Denver — $550 to win $500 ……….WON
First Half: New England +2.5 — $550 to win $500 ……….WON
First Half Team Total: New England OVER 12.5 — $880 to win $800 <<<BEST BET>>> ……….WON
……………
PENDING FUTURES WAGERS:
NY GIANTS OVER 7.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000
DETROIT LIONS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000
MINNESOTA VIKINGS OVER 6 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS UNDER 8 WINS (-135) — Wagering $1,350 to win $1,000
CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 7 WINS (-150) — Wagering $1,500 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
DALLAS COWBOYS TO MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-250) — Wagering $1,250 to win $500
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-220) — Wagering $2,200 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
……………
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)
108 WINS – 84 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $14,702.
NET GAIN: + $4,702.
……………
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 NFL SEASON RECORD (FINAL RESULTS)
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: + $3,460
Chin up, Nolan. Time for a confidence booster: You’re still $2,000 ahead since 2012 on top of overcoming the bookmaker’s juice. It’s a solid performance over a decent sample size of wagers that most people couldn’t brag about.
You’re making me nervous with that pick Nolan, Baltimore is my pick in the Schmengie suicide pool this week and the way you’ve been running this year 😉 At least I get 2 more points than you.
Hmm…, in my “The New Gambler’s Bible,” which you said had the best general sports betting chapter you’d ever read (or something to that effect), the section on teasers has this advice:
The books love ’em. Ever wonder why? Don’t bet ’em.
So it goes. Good luck, old friend. I’m also curious about those BB’s. If I recall correctly, you lost on them last year as well.
If so, a datum worth contemplating.
Arthur, the definitive word on NFL teasers comes from Stanford Wong’s “Sharp Sports Betting”, Chapter 16. There are a restricted number of times where NFL teasers make sense, although most sports books have done their best to eliminate the profitable teaser subsets. Nolan’s strategy is, uh, not in line with Wong’s recommendations, and I do not endorse it.
As to the “teaser wheel” being to Nolan’s handicapping what the .45 magnum is to Dirty Harry, first, there’s really no handicapping here. Second, I’d say it is to Nolan’s betting strategy what a ball-peen hammer is to smashing your own nuts, but maybe I’m missing the core concept.
NPC: Nolan’s tilting like a three-legged pinball machine. But he’s not alone. This year is a foozeball bettors walk through the twilight zone.
The one principle that seems to be missing in many analyses is “regression to the mean.” The supposedly bad teams aren’t as bad as they appear (Jets) and the good teams aren’t as good as we think (Steelers).
And I am really interested in those BB’s. If your “best bets” are winning less than half the time it should be a clue…. If your profits from the past two years of published results are coming from games other than your Best Bets — well, that’s an important piece of data.
In cognitive psychology (my field when I’m not playing poker), confidence level data are an important part of the equation.
FWIW, it looks like Sir Nolan only took a baby bath this week… pending tomorrow’s game.
And, another FWIW, if he took the Ravens at par and teased the full 12 on the other side he’d have won every bet … but that would have been like, oh say, just betting the Ravens to cover…
There are reasons I don’t bet foozeball….
if u like the ravens that much why not bet the $3850 on the money line and take the short money…..they might only win by one pt????? good luck
Nolan Replies: I did. With an actual cash ticket. However, I do not post ML plays on the site, as that kinda’ corrupts the numbers and record.
— ND