Week #4 — 2023 NFL Analysis and Picks
If making money betting on the NFL was easy, everyone would be doing it. Unfortunately, it’s never easy, Even when we win, it never comes easy.
I think it’s important that NFL handicappers have a season-long strategy. This is because the games played in the early part of the season are different than mid-season and late-season and certainly markedly different from the post-season.
I can’t explain why my 12-year publicly-posted results are why they are, but I’ve usually done very well early in the season (and then faded later in the season) — though I’ve still came out profitable 8 years out of 11. Bad years are a certainty the longer one does this. For any sports gambler, losing seasons are inevitable.
But right now, it’s still early.
This season is off to a rocky start as my picks didn’t perform well. Perhaps one reason is that I’ve concentrated very heavily on sides these first three weeks. I’d planned to concentrate on sides the first part of the season based on previous years results and then gradually adjust more to quarters, halves, totals, team totals, and player propositions as the season progressed. I’ve never posted impressive results on sides, which is the most challenging thing to beat in the NFL. I made an effort to work harder this year to beat sides, but have failed, up to now.
I’m making some adjustments to Week #4. Given the glaring inconsistencies of so many NFL teams and some really wacky unforeseen outcomes, I’m simply not confident in some of the methods that have served me well in the past in picking more winners than losers against the point spread. As I’ve written many times before, we’ve got to be willing to be introspective and even question ourselves and then make adjustments based on results and what we’ve seen. I have no problem adjusting and re-thinking things. And, I plan to do precisely that.
Accordingly, you’ll see far more quarters, halves, totals, team totals, and propositions this week and in the weeks to come.
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Meanwhile, here’s a few updates from my entries in Las Vegas handicapping contests:
MY WEEK #4 WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST PICKS:
Despite a tough season, I’m dead even (.500) in picks in the Westgate contest, with 7 max entries, and 3 tickets in decent shape. Here’s my picks on those tickets for this week:
TICKET 1 (8-6-1):
BAL +2.5
SEA pick
NYJ +9.5
DEN -3
LAC -5.5TICKET 2 (8-7):
BAL +2.5
SEA pick
NYJ +9.5
BUF -2.5
PHL -8TICKET 3 (9-6):
BAL +2.5
SEA pick
NYJ +9.5
LAC -5.5
TEN +2.5TICKET 4 (7-8):
BAL +2.5
SEA pick
NYJ +9.5
DEN -3
TEN +2.5TICKET 5 (5-5):
BAL +2.5
NYJ +9.5
DEN -3
LAC -5.5
PHI -8TICKET 6 (6-8-1):
BAL +2.5
ATL +3
LAC -5.5
NWE +7
HOU +3TICKET 7 (7-7-1):
BAL +2.5
ATL +3
CAR +4
NWE +7
HOU +3
MY WEEK #4 CIRCASURVIVOR PICK:
READ THIS WEEK’S SURVIVOR CONTEST STRATEGY ARTICLE HERE
Down to the final 2,479 in CircaSurvivor out of 9,267 starters.
A whopping 73.3 percent of the starting field is gone. Only slightly more than a quarter of the initial 9,267 CircaSurvivor tickets that were purchased remain alive. I currently hold one of them.
So, I’ve got a 1 in 2,479 shot of winning the $9,267,000 top prize. I’ll be a big 49ers fan this week.
Circa Pick: San Francisco.
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2023 NFL WAGERING RECORD
25 — Wins
36 — Losses
1 — Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $7,035.
Net Gain/Loss: – $2,965
Last Week: 4 wins – 12 losses (- $1,860.)
11-Year Comprehensive Record (2012-present):
CLICK HERE
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This week, I’ve made 24 early wagers…..plus 5 late wagers…..for total of 29 wagers:
ATLANTA vs. JACKSONVILLE (at London)
Line: Jaguars -3
Total: 43
I’m taking ATL at 2-1 vs. JAX 1-2 on a neutral site. JAX hasn’t played well in the last 9 quarters, getting outscored by a 68-29 margin. ATL is closer to JAX in talent than line indicates. I’ll take ATL on a number of “plus money” and “plus points” propositions.
Atlanta +3 (risking $220 to win $200)
First Half: Atlanta +2.5 (risking $110 to win $100)
First Half Team Total: Atlanta OVER 9.5 points at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)
Player Prop: Tyler Allgeier (ATL) OVER 37.5 rushing yards at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)
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BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
Line: Browns -2
Total: 41
The big news is injuries–for both teams. None are bigger than QB D Watson (CLE), who reportedly will now start (as of Friday night) but won’t be at 100 percent. His backup is basically the water boy. I’m glad to fade Watson when he’s healthy, but now it’s even more enticing. This is a game I wasn’t going to bet, especially since Baltimore is such a inconsistent performer. But there’s now enough here with some intangibles and especially the Ravens coming off an idiotic loss to take the division dog plus the points. Two weeks ago, the Ravens flew into Ohio and crushed the other team with a hobbled QB (at CIN). I’m hoping the same thing happens here again (in CLE).
Baltimore +2 (risking $220 to win $200)
First Quarter: Baltimore +1.5 at -150 (risking $150 to win $100)
ADDING: Buying half point (BALT moved to +2.5, so buy price is -140)….Baltimore +3 (risking $210 to win $150)
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CINCINNATI at TENNESSEE
Line: Bengals -2.5
Total: 41.5
TEN is probably the right side as a home dog, but I can’t pull the trigger without getting +3. In a similar situation a few weeks ago, TEN hosted LAC and was getting +3 at home and won outright. What scares me is how pathetic this team looked last week. The Titans remain anemic offensively. CIN has been no bargain either, finally waking up in the second half versus the LAR on MNF, but otherwise have looked nothing like themselves of 2021-22. I like TEN to keep this close in the opening frames. So, I’m taking points where I can find them. Not as convinced +2.5 is worth the risk for the full game, however. I’ll also go with big TE C. Okonkwo (TEN) to go OVER in receiving yardage. He’s broken his yardage O/U in 7 straight games dating back to last season and QB R. Tannehill increasingly likes him as a target.
First Half: Tennessee +1.5 at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)
First Half Team Total: Tennessee OVER 9.5 points at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)
Player Prop: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo OVER 31.5 receiving yards at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)
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DENVER at CHICAGO
Line: Broncos -3
Total: 47.5
What happens to DEN and Sean Payton if they lose this game? I can’t imagine DEN going back home after this weekend and coming off a 50-point loss one week followed by a loss to the Bears. I just can’t imagine it happening (famous last words). DEN will be eager to avenge the embarrassment and now has the perfect opponent to do so. CHI was also embarrassed. However, reports out of CHI say QB J. Fields may have lost the coaches and team and their confidence. DEN might get there soon, too — but for now I see the Broncos as slightly the better team and extra motivated coming off that record defeat. So, I’ll lay the points. Also, QB J. Fields has thrown at least 1 interception in each game this season, so I’m not sure why this is priced basically on the INT-YES at -115, unless there’s some possibility he gets yanked from the game.
Denver -3 at -115 (risking $240 to win $200)
Player Prop: QB J. Fields OVER 0.5 interceptions at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)
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LA RAMS at INDIANAPOLIS
Line: pick
Total: 46
Here’s a surprising line. Despite being 2-1 and playing more consistently this season, the home team is only a “pick” versus the visitor, on a short week and on a 2-game losing streak. IND (2-1) should be perhaps -2 hosting LAR (1-2) in my view and even though those aren’t key numbers, it shows some disrespect to the Colts. I’m not sure it matters whether G. Minshew or A. Richardson start at QB. IND defense looks to be playing better each week. LAR also have the defense to shut down IND. I think this total is too high. Small bet for me on the UNDER.
First Half: LA Rams/Indianapolis UNDER 21.5 at -105 (risking $105 to win $100)
LA Rams/Indianapolis UNDER 46 (risking $110 to win $100)
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MIAMI at BUFFALO
Line: Bills -3
Total: 53.5
Is anyone else surprised by this line? Sure, BUF has been the class of the division for a while. However, MIA looks to be the AFC’s best team based on their impressive 3-game win streak, which includes plenty of points scored and a defense that’s emerging into a decent stop unit. Many bettors will be tempted to take MIA plus the points (which makes sense). Initially, I wanted to fade MIA off a huge win and bet on BUF in a position to retain control of the AFC East at home, if the line was -2.5 (the early week number), but I missed that opportunity. The better play right now might be the contrarian wager on the UNDER. This O/U is inflated due to the high-scoring games by both teams last week. But a tighter game, especially in an important divisional matchup could be due for both teams. Accordingly, I think this game might be lower scoring. Both defenses are also pretty solid, with stats coming from opponents in catch-up mode. There won’t be any blowouts or cheap yards this time around. I might be foolish to step in front of the freight trains and bet UNDER, but that’s where the value appears to be. I think the UNDER gets there provided either QB struggles and/or the defenses step up.
First Half: Miami/Buffalo UNDER 27.5 (risking $165 to win $150)
Miami/Buffalo UNDER 53.5 (risking $165 to win $150)
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MINNESOTA at CAROLINA
Line: Vikings -4.5
Total: 46
Should MIN be really favored by -4.5 over anybody right now? I don’t think so. This one-dimensional team (all passing) puts up impressive fantasy stats but is dreadful when they most need a big play, proven by their 0-3 record (2 of those losses were due to idiotic on-the-field decisions by the offense). MIN isn’t a good road team, and CAR has a good enough defense to keep this close. CAR defense ranks a respectable 13th in the league (MIN defense ranks 27th). Sure, I’m worried about CAR ability to maintain drives and score many points. However, this is a softer defense and the offense should find some holes. I simply don’t think MIN should be laying more than a FG here. MIN is a dreadful 1-7-1 ATS last nine games. CAR is 4-1-1 ATS last six at home. Finally, MIN always seems to play close one-score games (winning all 11 last year and losing all 3 so far this year). So, I’m taking the home dog on two wagers.
First Quarter: Carolina +1.5 at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)
Carolina +4.5 (risking $220 to win $200)
ADDING: Player Prop: WR A. Thielen OVER 4.5 receptions (risking -$165 to win $150)
Note: Big revenge spot for WR Thielen who spent his entire career with MIN before being released in offseason. In previous two games, (against NOR and SEA) he was targeted 23 times and caught 18 passes for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns. With B. Young back at QB, he’ll likely look to Thielen to make catches.
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PITTSBURGH at HOUSTON
Line: Steelers -3
Total: 42
My addiction to betting on “bad teams” plus the points continues. I’d take HOU, provided I can get +3 (which I do have in the Westgate contest this week). UPDATE: I now see the line moved on Sat. to PIT -3 at -120, which comes back the other way at HOU +3 juiced to -120. So, that’s the play. The HOU QB situation with CJ Stroud continues to show improvement (really impressive numbers the last 6 quarters). Given the lackluster PIT offense and the abysmal play of QB K. Pickett, I’m happy to take a home dog. HOU comes off a big win playing with some confidence. PIT must also play a second straight road game. Give me the FG in what should be a close game. I’ll also take HOU to keep this one close throughout.
First Half Team Total: Houston OVER 9.5 at -125 (risking $125 to win $100)
First Half: Houston +1.5 at -125 (risking $125 to win $100)
Houston +3 at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)
Adding: Houston Team Total OVER 19.5 at -120 (risking $240 to win $200)
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TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS
Line: Saints -3.5
Total: 40
Under normal circumstances, I’ve be the Saints and lay points based on expectation NOR will show up this week and play its best game of the season. However, Saints QB situation is big question mark right now (Carr or Winston?). The NOR defense is one of the league’s best and should create havoc for TB. Total looks about right. There are better games on the board this week, so I’m passing on the side and total. Where value may exist however is on FG props. I can see both teams struggling in the red zone and a battle of 3-pointers. I’ll be looking at more options, but for now here’s the bet I’ve made. Note the TB kicker C. McLaughlin has made 5/6 FGs this season, including a long of 57 yards. Inside a dome, I expect he’s capable of at least 2 in this game.
Player Prop: PK Chase McLaughlin OVER 5.5 points at -130 (risking $130 to win $100)
ADDED: Game Prop: Will either Tampa Bay-New Orleans kick a FG in the 1Q–YES at even money (risking $150 to win $150)
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WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA
Line: Eagles -9.5
Total: 43
This looks like a massive overreaction to last week’s results. Sure, PHI at 3-0 looks headed back to the NFC Championship game, while WAS will likely post its usual 8-9 record, sprinkled with a few surprises along the way. But the line opened early at PHI -7. As a contrarian, I’m supposed to bet WAS plus the points, which is tempting. Trouble is, WAS offensive line is a mess and facing PHI is not the opponent you want to see with blocking and pass protection problems. In fact, lots of injuries and “questionables” on both sides of the ball will keep me off this game. I don’t know how these teams will react to coming off various situations. At +10, I’d take WAS. At -7, I’d take PHI. The line at +9.5 tempts me to bet WAS but I’m going to pass based on those OL issues.
No Action
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LAS VEGAS at LA CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -4.5
Total: 49
I see this as a possible coming out party for the Chargers, who have underachieved this season. The offense has been among the NFL’s best (currently ranked #2), but the defense has struggled each week. Now, the LAC get to face the limping Raiders, with QB J. Garoppolo possibly unable to play in concussion protocol. I’m not sure that matters. LAC are laying a low number for a team with so many weapons on offense and the ability to make big plays. LAC have played three close games that went down to the final minute. This should break the streak. LVR struggled badly the last two games, falling behind early. If they fall behind in this game, they won’t cone back or cover. I’m comfortable laying this number on two teams very possibly headed in opposite directions.
Player Prop: QB Justin Herbert OVER 281.5 passing yards (risking -110 to win $100)
Team Points: LA Chargers OVER 26.5 at -115 (risking $115 to win $100)
LA Chargers -4.5 (risking $220 to win $200)
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NEW ENGLAND at DALLAS
Line: Cowboys -6
Total: 43
Like much of the public, my first inclination was to think DAL would “bounce back” this week at home versus NWE, coming off the stunning loss to Arizona last week, in a game where the Cowboys never had the lead. I presume most of the betting public will stick with this expectation. I’m not so sure. One point that many bettors may have missed is DAL has played a creampuff schedule (NYG, NYJ, ARZ with a combined 3-6 record). By contrast, NWE played two of the NFL’s best teams (MIA and PHL, plus NYJ, who are a combined 7-2). When this line opened at -7, I jumped on the dog early and also have them in the Westgate contest. Now that the line has dropped to +6, I’m not sure the value is still there. Getting +7, this is easily a bet on NWE. Anything less, and I still like NWE but I’ll skip the wager. I might lean towards NWE in 1H as well, but this team has started games slowly, so that’s also a pass.
No Action.
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In the interest of time, here are my remaining plays for this week:
MNF: Seattle -1.5 (risking $220 to win $200)
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MORE UPDATES COMING….(MAYBE)
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Last Week’s Results: 4-12 -1860
First Half: San Francisco Team Total OVER 13.5 at -130 (Risking $130 to win $100)…..WON
First Half: Tennessee +1.5 (Risking $115 to win $100)….LOST
Tennessee Team Total (Full Game) OVER 17.5 (Risking $110 to win $100)….LOST
Tennessee +3.5 at -115 (Risking $230 to win $200)….LOST
First Half: Houston/Jacksonville UNDER 21.5 (Risking $110 to win $100)….WON
Houston/Jacksonville UNDER 43.5 (Risking $165 to win $100)….LOST
Green Bay -1 (Risking $220 to win $200)….LOST
First Half: Denver +3.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)….LOST
Washington +6.5 (Risking $110 to win $100)….LOST
Detroit -3 at -115 (Risking $230 to win $200)….WON
Baltimore -7.5 (Risking $220 to win $200)….LOST
Teaser: Baltimore -1.5 / Seattle pick at -120 (Risking $240 to win $200)….LOST
Moneyline Parlay: Baltimore / Seattle (Risking $500 to win $370)….LOST
Seattle -6 (Risking $220 to win $200)…..WON
Las Vegas -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh (Risking $220 to win $200)…..LOST
Tampa Bay +5 vs. Philadelphia (Risking $110 to win $100)…..LOST
