My Super Bowl Betting Propositions

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD

108 WINS — 84 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 2 WINS  2 LOSSES (+$95)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $16,057.

NET GAIN:  + $6,057.

BEST BETS:  21–20–2

SUPER BOWL WAGERS:  8 wagers / $4,560 at risk

Game Wager:  SEATTLE MONEYLINE (+115) — Wagering $700 to win $805

I am wagering Seattle will win the game.  It’s the classic matchup of a great offense versus a great defense where game conditions (outdoors, cold, wind) could tilt odds in favor of defense.  That means Seattle would have the edge.  In a (widely perceived) toss-up situation, there are two primary betting options — either taking the dog plus the points, or the dog on the moneyline, which pays a plus-money price.  The +2.5 points (line has dropped to +2 in some spots, and even as low as +1.5 in others) are worth 25 cents on the price here (laying -110 and getting +2.5 swings over to +115 by sacrificing the points).  I think that’s enough value to make a wager on the dog.  In fact, I’ll take anything over +110 on Seattle.  Note that if this line were to somehow move to Seattle getting +3 with a lay price of -120 or lower, I’d be all over that.  But it won’t happen.  So-called “sharp” money will keep the line from ever hitting +3.  One could break down these two teams forever, but the bottom line is both are traveling out of more comfortable elements (niether has played a road game in more than a month), to the east coast, with plenty of prep time.  I suspect offenses have more difficulty than defenses making this adjustment.  In other words, I think uncertainties favor the defensive-minded team.  It’s also worth noting that QB Manning hasn’t performed well historically in games similar to this (note his poor W-L record in non-home playoff games).  So, I’ll take the moneyline value.  One other point which seems to be overlooked, Seattle appeared to play considerably tougher competition to get to this game — completely stifling New Orleans (similar offense to Denver in productivity) and beating what might actually be the best team in football, which is San Francisco.  They’re also out of what’s unquestionably the best division in football, with three 11-win teams.  Hell, even the last place team in their division went 7-9.  Compelling reasons here to side with the dog.

Proposition:  Will the Seahawks Convert a Fourth-Down Attempt?  YES (+155) — Wagering $500 to win $775

I wagering that Seattle will be successful on a fourth down attempt.  I suspect Pete Carroll will be forced to gamble, at times.  Call it a sort of Sean Payton redux, which is the mentality that beat a Manning-led team last time he was in a Super Bowl game.  There’s always a major concern when facing Denver’s high-powered offense that extra points will be neccesary, and that might merit going for a 4th down or two, particularly in that grey zone, between midfield and the opponents’ 35-yard-line.  I think Seattle will get into a number of these situations during the game and will be forced to take some chances.  Odds of this are increased somewhat by a colder than usual outdoor game were winds could be unpredictable (translation:  the decision is made to skip the lower-percentage field goal).  Denver defense also not that intimidating — major difference between going for it on 4th and 2 against a great defense and a mediocre one.  We also get a generous price here (greater than a 3-2 payback), which is warped stat-wise because Seattle rarely had to attempt any 4th downs this season, because they were usually way ahead in most games.  Add the plausible chance Seattle is actually behind late in this game, and this wager becomes even stronger.  They could be forced to go for 4th downs late.

Proposition:  Highest-Scoring Quarter by Both Teams (Total Points) UNDER 20 — Wagering $660 to win $600

What this wager means is — take the highest-scoring quarter of the game, and decide how many points will be posted by both teams combined.  I think it will be 20 or less.  Obviously, three touchdowns or more (with conversions) is a locked OVER since that’s 21 points.  We must catch the push (refund) on the 20, which is essential to this wager.  I’m anticipating a lower-scoring game than expected (but missed the move off 48 earlier this week, so no wager on the game total which is now 47) which tells me the quarters should land lower than projected.  I’m also counting on Seattle’s run game to burn lots of clock throughout the game and melt opportunities for high scoring quarters.

Proposition:  Largest Lead of the Game by Either Team:  UNDER 13.5 POINTS (+155) — Wagering $500 to win $775

Proposition:  Team That Scores Last Wins the Game:  NO (+160) — Wagering $500 to win $800

I’m betting on the prop that no team will have a 14+ point lead at any point during the game, AND that the team that scores last will not win the game.  I posted them together because the explanation is someone connected.  These wagers won’t make sense to everyone and are contradictory somewhat, but they’re predicated upon one probably winning and one likely losing, which still produces a decent profit (55-60 cents).  Seems reasonable to expect a close game, which leads me to like the non-blowout angle anyways (largest lead never reaches 14+).  Also possible to win both wagers if one team is up by 4-13 points in a game that’s been close most of the way, and the losing team scores last….certainly a possibility.  This is one of those strange-sounding wagers which (if both are bet) I think has a reasonable chance of producing a profit.

Proposition:  Will Peyton Manning Throw a Touchdown Pass in the Fourth Quarter — NO (-110) — Wagering $440 to win $400

I’m betting that QB Manning won’t throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.  I see this as a mis-priced prop that plays to public bias in favor of the future Hall of Famer.  Manning’s touchdown pass total is 2 (listed at -130), which means all quarters being even, odds are about 2-1 against Manning tossing for a score within any 15-minute period.  Naturally, the 4th quarter plays out much differently than quarters 1-3 and is priced accordingly, but I think this weighed a bit too heavily in Manning’s favor.  If a couple of things happen which I think are quite possible, Seattle’s defense will not only perform up to capability (results show they don’t allow cheap 4th quarter scores — they never let up), the Seahawks offense may mount a long drive or two and burn up lots of clock time in the final quarter.

Proposition:  Longest Touchdown Pass By Russell Wilson — OVER 14.5 Yards (-115) — Wagering $460 to win $400

I’m betting QB Wilson throws a touchdown pass 15 yards or greater at some point in the game.  This is more of an “against” the Denver defense wager, based on two things.  Once inside the Red Zone, I expect Seattle will be far more likley to run the ball (reducing chance of touchdown pass inside the 14-yard-line).  Also, I don’t have much faith in Denver’s 27th-ranked pass defense, which could produce a breakaway score (yards after catch ending in a touchdown).  Note that if Wilson doesn’t throw a TD pass, there’s no action (refund).

Proposition:  Will There Be a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown:  NO (-160) — Wagering $800 to win $500

I’m wagering that there will not be a kickoff return, a punt return, or a defensive play for a touchdown.  Recent Super Bowls have disproportionally produced a YES result here, but given the two offenses and solid special teams play, I’ll lay the price.  Manning simply doesn’t throw pick-six’s, and I doubt Wilson will be placed into a position where he’s forced to carry the load of the offense.  One QB plays it smart.  The other plays it conservative.  Moreover, the sack total on this game is slightly lower than average (meaning less chance of QB fumble and defensive runback).  Field conditions would be better for this prop (the YES side) if it were played indoors on carpet which seems to spread out the field more for cover teams, but that’s not the case here.  I’ll look for good coverage play and few mistakes by either quarterback.

Note 1:  Latest betting lines are available HERE

Note 2:  For record-keeping purposes, all wagers above will not be listed in the W-L category.  However, all results will count towards money won/lost figures.  

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PREVIOUS WEEK’S RESULTS: 

SFO/SEA ——- FIRST HALF TOTAL:  OVER 19.5 — Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000     LOST

SFO/SEA ——- FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL:  San Francisco OVER 9 points — Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000     WON

NWE/DEN —— FIRST HALF TOTAL:  UNDER 28 — Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000     WON

NWE/DEN —— FIRST QUARTER:  NEW ENGLAND +.5 (-115) — Wagering $805 to win $700     LOST

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NOLAN DALLA:  2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  + $3,460

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  14-7-0