Denny Axel’s NFL Season Win Total of the Year — Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 (+115)

The NFL regular season begins Thursday night.

However, anyone serious about betting football should already be in mid-season form.  At the very least, those who bet pro football games and futures should be aware of significant off-season moves and have some idea of team-by-team changes we’ll expect to see in 2015.

Denny Axel

My longtime pal Denny Axel is already in mid-season form.  That’s because he bets large sums of money on futures.  For instance, during our lunch together on Tuesday afternoon, he showed me a fist full of futures tickets on the MLB Toronto Blue Jays to win the World Series of Baseball, all printed up at 9 to 1.  Right now, the Blue Jays are listed at 5 to 1 and resting in first place with the second-best record in the American League.  That’s typical of Denny.  He has a good eye for numbers and always seems to get the best of it.  When the Blue Jays reach the playoffs, he will likely be able to hedge off much of his action to lock up a guaranteed profit.

Before telling you more about Denny’s best NFL futures play this season, a little more about our source.  I first met Denny about 20 years ago when he was the co-owner of Card Player magazine.  I wrote for that publication at the time, which is how we became friends.  Back then, each year before football season began, Denny would pick one team on a futures bet and then do a long write-up on the season-win total of that team, listing why it would go either over or under.  Denny went 8 – 3 – 1 while at Card Player, which isn’t statistically relevant, but his methodology and reasoning did reveal that he’s consistently taking advantage of the information available and analyzing it well.

Since Denny sold off his share in Card Player I’ve tailed some of his picks in football and baseball (never listing them as my own, by the way).  Again, he’s consistently made money over the years.  Meeting before football and baseball season has become an annual ritual and a profitable one at that.

Denny’s reasoning on betting the “season-win totals” is pretty simple and sounds reasonable.  Betting one game is always high variance.  Anything can (and does often) go wrong within a 60-minute span.  A few fumbles or an ill-timed interception can turn a solid play into a loser.  However, with team season win totals, variance spread out over a 16-game schedule in the NFL.  A fumble or interception doesn’t matter as much.  An upset loss doesn’t necessarily kill a winning ticket.  Of course, injuries are impossible to predict.  A starting quarterback can go down with an injury and ruin an over wager.  But for the most part, season win totals tend to be solid investments and also provide a long-term “sweat” for those who enjoy the gambling aspect of football.  In a sense, with a season-win total, you’re already in action 16 weeks of the season.

Now, on to this year’s best pick from Denny, which is released here with his permission:

(the write-up below compiled from the memory of our discussion the other day)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS UNDER 8.5 WINS (+115)

Two things immediately are attractive about this wager.  First, Pittsburgh is a public team, and by that we mean they are more popular nationally than other NFL teams, which tends to shade their projected win totals slightly higher (most fans like to bet on their team).  Second, season win totals are always slightly tilted towards the over, which means unders are generally the way to go (I will elaborate on this another time — but it’s based on if you add up all the “possible” wins in the NFL over a season and then compare with the actual wins on the projection, and it’s usually off by about 6-7 games, although the high variance in vig prices now make this a more complex equation).

[Late Addition:  I just thought of this while I was posting….all season win totals are based on a healthy team.  It assumes, for instance, that QB Roethlisberger will be healthy and start all 16 games.  However, that’s no given, and with his history of injuries, this only makes this more attractive]

Here are 7 specific reasons Pittsburgh is unlikely to win 9+ games this season:

1.  The retirement of Troy Polamalu from the defense is going to hurt the team.  Polamalu was the leader and heart and soul of the unit and when he was injured the last few years, the defense struggled.  Replacing his performance and on-the-field leadership will not be easy.

2.  Pittsburgh faces at least two serious suspensions for key offensive players.  RB Levon Bell is suspended for three games.  WR Martavis Bryant is suspended for four games.  Those are two of the most important players on the offense.  Losing them for what amounts to a quarter of the season is a major void to fill.

3.  Arguably as big an injury as there is for an NFL offense, the Steelers starting center Maurkice Pouncy will be on injured reserve for seven weeks, which means he misses half the season.  Quarterback-center exchanges are underrated so far as performance goes, and this could cripple the Steeler’s offensive production, or at least give QB Ben Roethlisberger some problems.  When Payton Manning lost Jeff Saturday for an entire season with the Colts some years ago, he experienced one of his worst seasons as a pro.  This is a huge loss for Pittsburgh, and a major question mark entering the season.

4.  The Steelers play in a division where two of the teams are clearly playoff contenders, and even the worst team traditionally plays the Pittsburgh tough.  Baltimore is projected as the favorite in the division and should reach 10 wins.  Cincinnati bombs in the playoffs every year, but certainly can win 9 or 10 games.  That leaves Pittsburgh likely in third place, perhaps around the .500 mark.  However, even the lowly Cleveland game is no easy win for Pittsburgh.  The Steelers close at Cleveland this season, where they were destroyed last season by a bad team.

5.  Finally, Pittsburgh plays an absolutely murderous schedule this season.  Of their 16 games, 12 opponents are projected at 8 wins or higher.  Moreover, the Steelers close the season down the stretch with 4 of their last 6 games on the road.  Check out this schedule of opponents (with my comments):

AT NWE  (tough game, versus Super Bowl champion, and Steelers not at full force)

SFO  (winnable, but not a given)

AT STL  (against an improved team on the road that won 7 games last season, and has one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL)

BALT   (always tough — probably a toss-up at home, but Steelers still will be without WR on suspension)

AT SDI   (Chargers projected to win 8 or 9 games, and playing at home — Steelers will be a dog in this game)

ARZ   (they get the Cards at home, which won 11 games last season — this is also a tough matchup)

AT KC   (Arrowhead is always a tough place to play, and Steelers are likely to be a slight dog in this game)

CINCY  (division rival — always a tough game)

OAK  (easiest game on the schedule, and at home — but Raiders are said to be improving)

CLEVE  (another game where PITT should win, but nothing a given in this division — Browns took Steelers to OT last season in PITT, before losing)

AT SEA   (toughest place in the NFL and class of the league, likely a road loss)

INDY   (Colts one of the league’s best teams, and will remember getting blown out by PITT in a similar spot last season)

AT CINCY   (Steelers will certainly be a dog here)

DEN   (hosting one of the AFC’s best teams — yet another tough game)

AT BALT   (a murderous stretch of games, Steelers to have to play SEA, CINCY, DEN, and then travel to BALT!)

AT CLEVE   (both teams could be out of the playoffs, which makes this the Browns’ Super Bowl — last season Browns won here 31-10)

6.  The Steelers lost their longtime defensive coordinator, Hall of Famer Dick Labeau.  Although getting up in years, the uncertainty of a new system and leadership on the sidelines certainly comes with questions about the defense, particularly when combined with the retirement of LB Polumalo.

7.  Finally, we get a PLUS PRICE on the proposition.  We are getting back +115 on $100, which should clearly be weighed in the other direction.  I would have expected to lay at least -130 here.  This is clearly driven by dumb public money betting a popular team up to an unreasonable number.  As I often write and say, “go contrarian.”

[Another Late Addition:  Comes from Bruce Briggs on Facebook, who wrote:   I am a huge Steelers fan and unfortunately the analysis
is probably correct – One big factor he overlooked, the upheaval at the kicking position.  Shaun Suisham was “MONEY” in many, many crucial kicks and he is gone for the season.  The Steelers are really scrambling to find a replacement.  In my opinion that will be a major negative factor for this season.]

My Projection:  Pittsburgh Steelers — 7 wins / 9 losses (third-place finish)