2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 10

2025 NFL: WEEK 10 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS

2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 82
LOSSES — 70
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$350
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-9-0 (-$140)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,350.

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 18.5 rushing attempts (-130)…L
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)…L
CAR-GB Player Prop: CAR RB Dowdle OVER 53.5 rushing yards…W
MIN-DET: Player Prop: MIN QB McCarthy UNDER 19.5 pass completions (-135)… W
CHI-CIN: First-Half: Cincinnati +1…W
CHI-CIN: Full-game: Cincinnati +2 (-105)…L
ATL-NWE: Full-Game: New England -5…L
DEN-HOU: First-Half: Denver +.5 (-115)…L
DEN-HOU: Full-game: Denver +1.5…W
DEN-HOU: Team Prop: Will both teams kick a 33+ yard FG–YES (-130)…W
SFO-NYG: Full-Game Total: UNDER 48.5 (-115)…L
IND-PIT: Full Game: Pittsburgh +3…W
NOR-LAR: Full Game: LA Rams -13.5 (-115)…W
JAX-LVR: Player Prop: LVR QB Smith Over 225.5 passing yards (-115)…W
JAX-LVR: Player Prop: LVR QB Smith OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (+115)…W
ARZ: DAL: First-Half: Dallas -2…L
ARZ-DAL: Full Game: Dallas -3…L
ARZ-DAL: Team Prop: Will both teams kick 33+ yards FG–YES (-145)…L

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

THIS WEEK’S FAVORITE MEMORY:

REMEMBERING THE GREATEST KICK

Last Sunday, placekicker Cam Little booted the longest field goal in NFL history. Late in the second quarter of the Jacksonville-Las Vegas game, the Jaguars kicker lined up and nailed a 68-yarder that sailed straight between the uprights and over the crossbar, by perhaps another 4-5 yards. The kick very likely would have been good from 70+ yards. It’s hard to believe the NFL has been around for more than a century, and has included tens of thousands of successful field goals. Yet, that instant became the new all-time record.

NFL kicking is both mysterious and unpredictable. It’s peculiar how many missed extra points there have been in recent years (the ball is kicked from the 15-yard line–which should be automatic for any pro kicker). Yet this is also the golden age of long-distance placekicking. 50+-yarders used to be rare in football. Now, they happen multiple times each week. 60+-yarders aren’t even a big deal anymore. Pretty soon, I expect we’ll see the first 70+-yard field goal. It’s not a matter of if, but when.

Taking nothing away from Little’s feat last weekend, his kick lacks any lasting sense of drama. It just wasn’t anywhere close to as exciting as what’s widely acknowledged as the greatest kick in NFL history — Tom Dempsey’s half-boot blast off a dirt field at old Tulane Stadium in New Orleans, lifting the dismal Saints to a heroic last-second victory versus the Lions. Why was Dempsey’s kick 55 years ago, five yards shorter, more memorable?

I think it’s all about the story. The ultimate underdogs–both the team and the player. Great moments in sports need to be remembered in their full context. It’s important to know the backstory and the preamble to greatness. Dempsey’s kick has all that, and so much more. Sorry but Little’s kick wasn’t nearly as big.

Take a minute and watch this blurry but thrilling video nonetheless of the live 1970 CBS television broadcast. New Orleans didn’t even have the ball with 11 seconds left in the game, while trailing. The Saints not only had to run the kickoff back and not waste precious seconds. They also had to gain another 15 or so yards, with no timeouts, and get out of bounds to stop the clock. Then, the kicking team has to come on and make a field goal off dirt, eclipsing the prior record by a whopping SEVEN YARDS! The previous longest kick in history had been 56-yards by Bert Rechichar of the Baltimore Colts seventeen years earlier, in 1953.

Oh, and let’s add a few more obstacles. The Saints were awful. Heading into the Lions game, they were 1-5-1 and in last place. Days earlier, the head coach had been fired. And the kicker was a portly man named Tom Dempsey, then in his second pro season. He was a barrel-shaped player originally from Milwaukee who had a career kicking success rate of just 52 percent on field goals (today, the success rate of kickers is about 80 percent). He’d made just 32 of 61 lifetime attempts. Oh, and Dempsey had another issue. He was born with no toes on his kicking foot. So, the Saints constructed a special boot just for him, in the shape of a sledgehammer. He was also missing his right hand, another birth defect (try kicking a ball without swinging your arms for balance, sometime). Dempsey was undoubtedly the most physically-challenged player in NFL history. This is the man with a HALF FOOT who trotted out onto the dusty field in November 1970 to try and win a game for the lowly Saints.

But remember, first New Orleans had to get the ball into position. What you see here in the video is that backstory and the preamble to greatness. A perfect storm had to happen, in just this precise way. If that last second pass that gained a few extra yards had been incomplete on the previous play, there would have been no Tom Dempsey moment.

Yes, Little’s kick last Sunday was great, and he may hold the record until someone else comes along and makes one that’s longer. However, I doubt any kick will ever be as memorable as Tom Dempsey’s 55 years ago — this week (Nov. 8, 1970).

Watch here: LINK– https://youtu.be/cjqiq4S9bqA?si=5Q758SWZ6chajZgP

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 10:

LAS VEGAS vs. DENVER (TNF)

Player Prop: LVR QB Smith OVER .5 interceptions (-165)

Player Prop; DEN TE Engram UNDER 3.5 receptions (-115)

It’s hard to believe Denver is 7-2 and in first place in the AC West. The Broncos have won five straight and are undefeated at home. This looks like a mismatch hosting struggling Las Vegas. Following a bye, the Raiders are now on a short week, hit the road, and come off a gut-wrenching loss at home. The Raiders had their shot to reboot their season last week at home against Jacksonville, but came up short. I can’t see Las Vegas now going on the highway and facing a much tougher defense that appears to be improving each week after some shaky play earlier in the season. That’s why this game is lined at just shy of double digits (line is presently 9 to 9.5).

Given we expect a Broncos win, perhaps by more than one score, two player props stand out:

1. For all his troubles this season, QB Geno Smith enjoyed a good game last week, especially with his two top receiving targets back in action. Smith threw for nearly 300 yards and 4 TDs. That likely means another pass-heavy script, particularly given the game line which implies the Raiders will be playing from behind later in the game. Smith won’t be afraid to air out the ball, which increases the chances of an interception. Smith has already tossed 11 picks this season, one of the highest numbers in the NFL. He’s also thrown an interception in 6 of 8 games. Playing versus a top-5 defense likely means Smith will end up with at least one pick. The high vig is problematic. However, I see the odds as closer to 1-2 (or -200) that Smith plays a mistake free game. The Broncos also lead the league in sacks (at 4.4 per game), which means Smith is going to get plenty of pressure, and that often translates into mistakes.   
2. Denver TE Evan Engram is coming off a terrible game in Houston. He had no receptions in a close game, and could be out of favor as a primary target. In fact, he’s been targeted just 7 times in the last two games, and both included lots of passing. Engram has taken only about half all Denver offensive snaps this season (51 percent of plays). The Broncos also have two decent wideouts, so Engram isn’t as valuable to QB Nix. Through nine games, Engram has just 26 catches for 215 yards and 1 touchdown. Asking him to go OVER 3.5 receptions may be a stretch. Engram’s UNDER prop on catches is helped significantly by Denver being big favorites. We assume they won’t have to throw too many passes, especially late in the game. Nix is projected at O/U 20 pass completions. As for the Raiders defense, they don’t do many things well but their coverage against opposing tight ends has resulted in below-average numbers of opposing players at that position this season.

FINAL LIST OF PICKS FOR WEEK 10
(For those who just want the picks)

LVR/DEN: Player Prop — LVR QB Smith OVER .5 interceptions (-165)…W
LVR/DEN: Player Prop — DEN TE Engram UNDER 3.5 receptions (-115)…W
ATL/IND: Full-Game Line — Atlanta +6.5
ATL/IND: First-Half Line — Atlanta +3.5
ATL/IND: Full-Game Total — ATL/IND UNDER 48.5
BAL/MIN: Full-Game Line – Baltimore -4 (-105)
NWE/TB: Player Prop — NWE QB Maye OVER 21.5 pass completions (-115)
NOR/CAR: Full-Game Line — Carolina -5.5
NOR/CAR: Player Prop — CAR RB Hubbard OVER 20.5 rushing yards (-115)
NYG/CHI: Full-Game Total — NYG/CHI UNDER 47
BUF/MIA: Player Prop — BUF QB Allen to score touchdown–YES (-125)
ARZ/SEA: First-Half Line — Arizona +3.5 (even)
ARZ/SEA: First-Half Team Total — Arizona OVER 9.5
ARZ/SEA: Full-Game Line — Arizona +7

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

__________

2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 9

2025 NFL: WEEK 9 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS

2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 73
LOSSES — 61
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$490
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-9-0 (-$135)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,490.

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

–

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

Game Prop — Will both kickers make a 33+ field goal — YES (-125)….W
Player Prop — BUF QB Allen OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-130)…L
Game Prop — MIA First Drive Ends in — PUNT (+125)…W
Player Prop — MIA QB Tagovailoa to throw interception–YES (-140)…:L
Chicago +6.5 vs. Baltimore (full-game line)…L
Chicago +3.5 (first-half line)…L
Cleveland +4 (first-half line)…W
Player Prop — HOU QB Stroud OVER 202.5 passing yards (-115)…W
Player Prop — TEN WR Jefferson OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-120)…L
Player Prop — NOR QB Rattler OVER 213.5 passing yards (-115)…L
Player Prop — NOR WR Shaheed OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-115)…W
Team Total — New Orleans OVER 20 points (full-game)…L
NY Jets +6.5 vs. Cincinnati…W
Dallas +3.5 vs. Denver (full-game line) (-120)…L
Team Toals — Dallas OVER 23.5 (-115)…W
Player Prop — DAL WR Pickens OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-115)…W
Player Prop — DAL WR Pickens OVER 23.5 longest catch (-115)…L

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A FEW MID-SEASON THOUGHTS:

Even though I’m having a winning year with marginal net-positive results, I still can’t help but feel like the first half of the NFL season has been a disappointment.

Perhaps it’s just an emotional overreaction to chaos and unpredictability from week-to-week. As sports handicappers, we’re supposed to never get emotionally involved in games and outcomes. But I’ve always been very open about my feelings and reactions to what I do and the way games play out.

Speaking of emotions and reacting to wins and losses, few comments about last week’s Chicago-Baltimore game are mandatory here. In Week 8, the Bears opened up as +6.5 point underdogs. The Ravens were favored mainly because QB Lamar Jackson was announced as the starter. Obviously, Baltimore is a much stronger team with Jackson (even though I still think he’s a great regular season player, but less so in the playoffs–but that’s another topic for discussion later). I liked the Bears at +6.5 no matter who was starting, and so I made a cash wager on them. On Saturday, I turned in my contest picks (at Westgate and Circa). I have 10 contest tickets, at $1,000 each. So, I have ten tickets to fill out each week. Just as I was about to make my entry official, the announcement came that Jackson was *not* starting (a few cappers paying close attention got a hint of this early Saturday when it became known Jackson did not work out with the first team offense in Friday’s team practice–a sure indication he was unlikely to start). Sure enough, the line plummeted to Chicago +2. The line dropped 4.5 points, which is huge on an NFL game. For contest picks, getting the best of a 4.5-point line move is an automatic decision. So, I put the Bears on all ten contest tickets. I was also kicking myself for not betting more money on the Bears earlier, at the generous line of +6.5.

Sports outcomes don’t turn out like we expect, and the Bears-Ravens game was the perfect example of that (add the Miami-Atlanta game, which was just as bizarre–how did the Dolphins come in and destroy the Falcons after looking so bad lately?). In the CHI-BAL game, Chicago jumped out to an early 6-0 lead after two impressive drives stalled in the Red Zone. Still, this bet looked like gold. The Ravens offense looked lost. Then….

….well, you know the rest. Baltimore won by 14 points, covering the spread easily, despite backup QB Tyler Huntley under center combined with a Ravens’ defense that had been steamrolled in nearly every game this season. And the fucking Bears…..ugh.

I looked at that final score and just shook my head. All the contest tickets were tainted with a loss, and I lost cash money as well. Fortunately, I didn’t have lots of cash on me or have a huge amount of money in my online accounts. Had I known I could take advantage of a 4.5-point line move, I would have bet the game for a very large amount. So, I may have actually saved money from a much worse defeat.

It’s hard to forget a game like that where all the stars seemed to line up perfectly for an easy winner and simply move on after a loss. Even doing everything right sometimes blows up in our faces. Hence, I’ve gradually downgraded my sides betting for precisely this reason. The NFL week-to-week seems ridiculously volatile, more even than it used to be, and I’ve been around for more years than I care to admit. Fortunately, there are many other wagering options on these games. That’s where I’ll focus more of my attention going forward.

Now, it’s on to NFL Week 9 – and of course the first game on the schedule is……BALTIMORE at MIAMI.

Waaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh!

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ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 9:

BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 18.5 rushing attempts (-130)
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)

Two of the NFL’s most unpredictable teams over the last few weeks will face off on Thursday Night Football. When we can’t predict an outcome with any degree of confidence, it’s usually best simply to take the dog–plus the points. This is especially true with a home team getting more than a touchdown. Currently, the Ravens are -7.5 favorites over the Dolphins in Miami, which seems like a lot of points to give for any big favorite with major questions while also playing on a short week. Then again–do we really want to bet on the Dolphins? Will the real Dolphins and Ravens please stand up? I lean to MIA +7.5, but will pass on making a cash wager. The total also looks a bit high at O/U 51, FWIW.

Lamar Jackson’s injury pulled a major mind fake on bettors last weekend. But he’ll likely start this time. Will Jackson quickly revert to mid-season form, or might four weeks of inactivity take time for the QB to adjust? Again–who knows?

Where value may exist with ample evidence to make a few wagers could be with fading All-Pro RB Derrick Henry. The Ravens rusher typically attracts money on the OVER props, with some justification. However, Henry’s O/U projections tend to be slightly inflated, which means taking the UNDER on various rushing props when the situation is favorable. This situation looks especially favorable tonight for Henry’s season-averages to remain flat and for him to fall under on both the rush attempts (18.5) and yardage (90.5).

My reasoning goes–these are two of the slowest-paced offenses in the NFL. Baltimore ranks 31st in number of offensive plays per game, at 53 on average (Miami ranks 30th). A slower pace and fewer plays on both sides of the ball means fewer opportunities for the offensive stars and padding to their individual stat lines. The Ravens rank 22nd in rush attempts per game, their low ranking more due to playing from behind several times this season and being forced to abandon the run late in games. At 133 YPG rushing, Baltimore has fallen from their customary spot in the top three, now ranking 8th among all teams. For Henry to reach his numbers and go OVER versus Miami, he’ll have to get 70 percent of the carries and pick up a similar percentage of team rushing yards. He may get close to those percentages, but I’m counting on the final tallies to be a little short.

QB Jackson’s return likely means more confidence with the passing game. Jackson is also likely to add approx. 6.5 rushes on his own based on his prop projections, thus reducing Henry’s workload. The Ravens also have enough offensive targets to spread the ball around, and hopefully keep Henry’s attempts to a modest number.
It’s important to also note Henry’s heavy use in the last two games — 24 rushes in Week 7 and 21 rush attempts in Week 8, which was just 4 days ago. That’s 45 carries in just the last 11 days, and now the Ravens play on a short week. It’s a small sample size, but in Henry and the Ravens’ two TNF games last season, his workload was lower than average — just 16 carries for 68 yards in one game and 13 carries for 46 yards in the second. Perhaps that was by design, not wanting to wear the star down. I’d be surprised to see Henry fed the ball another 20 times with so little rest. He did score two TDs last week, but had only 71 rushing yards. Henry’s season average are lower than his career average — just 109 carries for 510 yards in seven games, which equals 15.5 rush attempts per game and 72 YPG. He’ll need an extra 4 attempts and 19 additional yards rushing to break tonight’s prop numbers. I’m betting the — no.

Obviously, a long breakaway could kill the yardage prop, and we’ve seen Henry do this in the past versus weak defenses. Miami’s defense also inspires little to no confidence, but these wagers aren’t rooted in the Dolphins’ strengths but rather speculate on the Baltimore game plan which we hope will be to distribute the ball more to other Raven players, and for Jackson to enjoy some success passing the ball. Henry should factor in, but I’m counting on this not to be an MVP night. A short week, perhaps some tired legs with Henry, and a more diverse game plan, combined with very high projections on the Ravens’ RB looks to be a good fade this week.

<<< Picks will be continuously updated Wednesday through Saturday >>>

FINAL LIST OF PICKS FOR WEEK 9
(For those who just want the picks)

BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 18.5 rushing attempts (-130)…L
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)…L
CAR-GB Player Prop: CAR RB Dowdle OVER 53.5 rushing yards
MIN-DET: Player Prop: MIN QB McCarthy UNDER 19.5 pass completions (-135)
CHI-CIN: First-Half: Cincinnati +1
CHI-CIN: Full-game: Cincinnati +2 (-105)
ATL-NWE: Full-Game: New England -5
DEN-HOU: First-Half: Denver +.5 (-115)
DEN-HOU: Full-game: Denver +1.5
DEN-HOU: Team Prop: Will both teams kick a 33+ yard FG–YES (-130)
SFO-NYG: Full-Game Total: UNDER 48.5 (-115)
IND-PIT: Full Game: Pittsburgh +3
NOR-LAR: Full Game: LA Rams -13.5 (-115)
JAX-LVR: Player Prop: LVR QB Smith Over 225.5 passing yards (-115)
JAX-LVR: Player Prop: LVR QB Smith OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (+115)
ARZ: DAL: First-Half: Dallas -2
ARZ-DAL: Full Game: Dallas -3
ARZ-DAL: Team Prop: Team Prop: Will both teams kick a 33+ yard FG–YES (-145)

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.