2026 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 9
2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 9 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
SEASON BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 69
LOSSES — 57
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — + $210.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 10-7-1 (+ $235)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,210.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
We’ve now reached the regular season mid-way point. It’s nice to be in the profit column – though my win margin is razor thin. We’ve taken more bad beats than usual this year, but no one cares about excuses. Let’s get straight to a new slate of games and try and pick some winners.
JACKSONVILLE at BALTIMORE [TNF]
Line: Jaguars -10
O/U: 39.5
A few weeks ago, this looked like a premier mid-week Thursday night showdown. Now, it’s a lopsided mismatch with the road team favored by double digits. Question is—–has the line moved too far and might value exist with contrarian wagers related to the home underdog?
Baltimore’s QB situation has become dire. Starter Lamar Jackson is out, then it was just announced that backup QB Tyler Huntley suffered a season-ending turf toe injury. That leaves whoever answers the Craig’s List ad for a job opening. On Wednesday, the Ravens unexpectedly picked up journeyman Jacoby Brissett from Arizona, who might be a solid stand-in if he had more time to unpack his suitcase. However, he won’t be available this week. That means an undrafted rookie from UConn, Joe Fagnano will get the start.
Data Point: Rookie QBs actually fare better than might be expected in their initial starts. The overall positive results are jaded somewhat by many of those rookie QBs being very high-pedigree first-round draft choices — such as Williams (CHI), Nix (DEN), etc. most recently who started many games in rookie seasons and fared pretty well. Unfortunately, when rookie QBs aren’t in that class, they perform much worse ATS. Since 2015, rookie QBs starting and getting +6.5 or more points are a horrid 26-136 SU and 66-92-4 ATS (42 percent). We might think a large spread — in this case +10 points in this matchup — provides a nice cushion for betting on a rookie quarterback, but that’s not the case. These teams scored just 17 PPG in those rookie starts.
A case can be made for taking either side, and if forced to pick —- probably JAX if less than -9.5 or BAL if more than 10.5. Locked in on 10, that looks more like a coin flip. So, I’ll pass on either side.
One expects that with an untested rookie QB, Baltimore’s game plan will play it conservative. That likely means RB Derrick Henry gets plenty of carries. I see his prop numbers at 15.5 carries and 74.5 yards. Trouble for Baltimore is, Henry does much better when his team has a passing game threat and a healthy offense that can take pressure off and sustain long drives. He lacks that threat this week, so I can’t go OVER on those props, though that’s going to attract prop money. I’d be careful with Henry-stuff this week, since his done poorly the last three games — with just 15 carries on average per game, and 52 YPG. Also remember, JAX fields a decent run defense, so be wary of assuming Henry gets enough carries and yards to break his projections.
Instead, I’ll wager on something counterintuitive. The rookie QB may not pass as much as normally, but we expect the Ravens will be trailing in parts of this game, especially later as indicated by the high spread. This does set up “trash” yards and stats that come cheaply in lopsided games. For this reason, WR Zay Flowers should be a very inviting target for out money. It helps that the Jags’ defense must respect RB Henry as a threat, leaving Flowers and other receivers as open targets.
Flowers is coming off a horrible game, one of his worst in years. Zero catches. That’s in glaring contrast to a terrific season otherwise by Flowers, with 40 catches and 608 yards. Even with a bad game in Week 8, Flowers still averages 86 YPG receiving. He’s not enjoyed reliable QBs throwing the ball this season, so the drop off might now be as severe as we think. That makes Flowers particularly attractive in this matchup. Again, the potential for “trash” time receiving yardage cannot be overstated enough on this prop.
Flowers O/U on receiving yardage is just 47.5 yards in this game. That’s a low total for a WR who averages nearly double that per game. He’s projected at 5 catches. I wouldn’t touch that prop, fearing Fagnano may not throw many passes. With a very healthy 15.5 YPC average, Flowers is a legit receiving target to bust for 48 yards on a single catch. So, there’s that, as well.
This will be my only wager on the game, though I also lean to Baltimore in the 4Q +2.5 points (per-game line). Those are interesting alt. spreads which take into account what’s expected in a game script. We’ve seen Jacksonville take its foot off the gas late in games this season when leading big, so if that happens the Jags might not score many points in the final frame. As I said, BAL +2.5 in the 4Q is a strong lean. I’ll stick with the prop for now, as a recorded wager.
Wager:
Player Prop – BAL WR Flowers OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
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CINCINNATI vs. ATLANTA [International Game/Early Start]
Line: Bengals -3.5
O/U: 52.5
Neither team covered last week. However, the Bengals did win and at 5-2 are clearly the more consistent of the two. Playing on a neutral site (Madrid), I expected this spread to be -4 or higher. I’m betting Cincinnati, and laying the points. One interesting data point — in international games favorites are an impressive 39-23-1 (63 percent) against-the-spread. The theory is that in uncertain conditions (foreign travel, etc.) the superior teams rise to the occasion and/or exceed market expectation. The numbers bear this out.
I don’t like making “obvious” picks, though this matchup offers some very clear choices. I look for Cincinnati’s offensive success to continue this week, which translates into OVER on the Bengals’ team total and OVER on QB Joe Burrow’s passing yardage projection:
CIN OVER 27.5 — Bengals average 30 PPG. I’d like to catch a push on 27, but there’s still enough value to bet on this, so long as we get a win on 28. Cincinnati is rolling on offense lately, and faces a very average defense. Falcons have faced several weak offenses, and the Bengals might be the toughest test yet. One must also wonder what their prep will be like this week, after holding their previous opponent to 0 passing yards (zero!) in a driving rainstorm, but 350 yards on the ground, a thorough ass-kicking. Now, they face an elite passing opponent. ATL was shut out last week, even with their strong running attack, leading me to think their offensive problems may continue. That means Cincy will get plenty of chances to score and run up points.
BURROW OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS — QB Burrow is enjoying a monster season. He’s averaging 302 YPG, while also leading the league in completion percentage (73 percent) and passing touchdowns (20). His long-pass completion percentage is tops in the NFL, indicating the Bengals will throw deep. Burrow is a solid MVP candidate right now. This doesn’t bode well for Atlanta, which has been burned with the deep ball.
Wagers:
Full-Game Side – CINCINNATI -3 vs. Tampa Bay (-115)
Full-Game Team Total – CINCINNATI OVER 27.5 (-115)
Player Prop – CIN QB Burrow OVER 270.5 passing yards (-115)
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FULL LIST OF THIS WEEK’S PICKS:
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