2026 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 7
NFL WEEK 7
ANALYSIS AND PICKS
I made 15 cash bets this week (so far). Please click the link here to read all the picks and plays of the week.
Here are a couple of appetizers for what I hope will be a Sunday feast:
GREEN BAY at DETROIT
Line: Lions -3
O/U: 53.5
I’m betting against Green Bay this week. Translation–I’m not betting so much on Detroit as against the Packers. The Lions’ offense needs no justification or write-up. We all know that this is one of the best in the league and now they’re back at home, where the Lions often put up big numbers. The Lions simply look like the better team, even with their defensive lapses.
Regular followers here know I’ve been “anti-Green Bay” most of the season. They’d been a horrid covering team up until a few weeks ago (two straight covers currently), failing ATS in 9 straight games before that–dating back to last season. We can credit the Packers for a couple of back-to-back home wins. But was beating CHI (which started a third-string QB) and the floundering badly-coached Cowboys (one of worst defenses in the NFL) really such a big deal? Going on the road at Detroit will be a far bigger test for Green Bay. In horse racing this is called a big step up in class.
This point deserves more emphasis: Green Bay faced these opposing QB’s, so far this season:
MIN (Murray making his first start with a new team, then replaced by the backup)
NYJ (Smith making his second start on a bad team)
ATL (Penix, Jr., coming off an injury)
TB (Daniels making his first-ever NFL start)
CHI (a third-string QB, with Williams and Kennum sidelined)
DAL (Prescott, suffering a miserable season)
Now, they’ll say hello to Jared Goff and the Lions, who also rush the ball very well. Stats: QB Goff has 12 TDs and 0 INTs this season. Repeating the horse racing thing — that’s quite an step up in class.
The Packers rushing game ranks as the league’s absolute worst, with just 60 YPG, for a horrible 2.8 YPC average. That’s a putrid figure. So, Green Bay must pass the ball and keep up with the Lions on the road. I’m glad to fade GB QB Jordan Love, who is an erratic performer and has yet to show he’s worth all the money they’re paying him.
I’m trusting Detroit’s offense to simply outscore the inferior team and cover here. I’d skip this if the line was -3.5. Laying only a FG seems quite reasonable.
Wager:
Full-Game Side: DETROIT -3 (-115) vs. Green Bay
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NY GIANTS at HOUSTON
Line: Texans -10.5
O/U: 42.5
It’s rare to see a team with a better W-L record as a double-digit underdog. This line opened at HOU -9, but crossed a key number up to -10.5 based on the midweek announcement that QB J.J. McCarthy will start for the Giants. He’s basically the third-string QB and was acquired only a month ago from Minnesota. His couple of starts last season were torcherous, though last week he put up decent numbers due to playing in the 4th quarter versus a prevent defense that gave McCarthy plenty of trash-time stats. As much as I wanted to grab the Giants and take the juicy points here, I can’t. Houston may also have shed its monkey on its back after a horrible 0-4 start, having won two in a row. The Texans looked terrific on offense last week beating Jacksonville.
The standout play prop value could be HOU WR Nico Collins. He’s scored a TD in 3 of his 4 games this season (two games were missed with injury). He’s likely to be targeted generously this week, given he’s the Texans’ “go-to” receiver. NYG CB Newsome has been ruled out for this game, which means the Texans’ best deep threats will be up against a backup corner. I expect this game could also turn into a confidence builder for Houston given they’re winless at home this season and here’s a great chance to run up the score and please the home crowd. Yes, those things come into play in prop betting.
I rarely make “player scoring a touchdown” prop bets. Here’s an exception. Houston’s Collins has a good chance to get into the end zone at least once. His prop price to score a TD is +130. Houston’s passing attack looks back on track after seeing they put points on a good defense last week, and is certainly now much better with Collins in the lineup. Now, he’s up versus a wounded defense and looks to be a star player to bet on to score a TD.
Wager:
Player Prop: HOU WR Collins to score a touchdown–YES (+130)
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FINAL LIST OF WEEK 7 WAGERS:
[For those who just want the picks]
Full-Game Team Total: CHICAGO OVER 26.5 points (-115)…W
Second-Half Team Total: CHICAGO OVER 13.5 points (-105)…L
Player Prop: NOR QB Shough OVER 227.5 passing yards (-115)
Full-Game Line: NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (-110) vs. Pittsburgh
First-Half Line: NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (even)
Player Prop: TB RB Irving OVER 35 rushing yards in 1H (-115)
Player Prop: TB RB Irving OVER 15.5 rushing attempts in full game (-105)
Player Prop: TEN QB Ward UNDER 187.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: CIN RB Brown UNDER 51.5 rushing yards (-115)
Player Prop: MIA RB Gordon OVER 52.5 rushing yards (-115)
Player Prop: IND QB Jones to throw an interception–YES (-125)
Player Prop: HOU WR Collins to score a touchdown–YES (+130)
First-Half Line: ARIZONA +3 (-120)
Full-Game Side: DETROIT -3 (-115) vs. Green Bay
Player Prop: SEA QB Darnold to throw an interception–YES (-115)
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