2026 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 6
2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 6 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 42
LOSSES — 36
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — – $25.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 10-5-0 (+ $455)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,975.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (THREE BETS)
SEATTLE at DENVER
Line: Seahawks -2.5
O/U: 40.5
This is an intriguing TNF matchup. Football fans and bettors have been blessed with multiple good games this season, and this is just the latest in a succession of midweek contests with several factors and angles which have to be weighed together in making decisions about where to place our money.
First, let’s look at the visiting favorites. Seattle (3-2) seems out of sync. The running game has been non-existent. OL play has been erratic — 4 sacks allowed last week. Eight sacks in the last two games. Dumb penalties. And turnovers have killed this team — 4 last week, and 3 in the loss at Washington a few weeks ago. The defense has also surrendered big plays and struggled when up against strong competition. It appears Seattle is favored here for one reason only — which is their Super Bowl trophy from last season. Other than that, this team doesn’t deserve to be favored on the road based on their inconsistent performances.
Denver (3-2) has been just as erratic. That was an ugly win last week at the LA Chargers, which was a very lackluster effort. The yardage numbers stank. The Broncs average less than 20 PPG this season, which isn’t going to cut it in today’s NFL. However, I’ll cut the Broncos some slack coming off a tough game at San Francisco the previous week. And even though they could very well be 1-4 right now, let’s credit Denver for two home wins, so far — beating both Jacksonville and LA Rams which most will agree are strong opponents.
Neither offense inspires confidence right now. That’s one reason the total dropped from 42.5 down a few points to 40.5. The weather forecast is also worth keeping a close watch on with possible rain and temps in the 30s. Wind also could factor.
Given the possibility of both passing games being impacted, we could see more rushing on both sides — especially by Seattle. This expectation will motivate a few player prop wagers. Denver’s rush defense has uncharacteristically been gashed (146 YPG, ranking 29th in the NFL) combined with allowing 4.7 YPC. Those are awful number for a defense that was supposed to be Denver’s strength. Look for Seahawks to test this weakness.
Most attention will shine on Seattle’s primary ball carrier Emanuel Wilson, but I’ll look at the other RB to get enough carries to break a very low rushing yardage total. George Holani played a miserable game last week, including two fumbles, including a costly killer in the Hawks’ end zone. Yet, he’s the only replacement for Zach Chabronnet (still injured and unlikely to play). Someone has to take an extra few carries, and Holani should get the ball. Projection is low at 5-6 carries. He’s played three games with 4-7-3 carries respectively, for just 36 yards. It’s important to keep in mind However—–Seattle was playing from behind in two of those games, so his rushing yardage would expect to be low. We presume Seattle won’t have to play catch up in a game where they’re favored this week, or at least there’s a better chance of more rush attempts late in the game (a big factor in RB props). Add Denver’s vulnerability to the run, and it’s reasonable to expect Holani gets the ball enough carries to break a very low yardage O/U…..which is just 12.5 yards. Note that I’ve been focusing more on *secondary running backs* this season with some success and when the conditions appear optimal, we should look to them as hidden OVER bets. That’s my best player prop in this game.
I’m also going to be a bit more aggressive on this prop, making a “combo yardage” bet for Holani, as well. He’s listed at O/U 24.5 yards, which means yardage gained both rushing and passing. In his fill-in role, he’s made 7 catches for 53 yards over three games. Assuming a 7 TPC average, we need 2 catches to go along with 4 or 5 rushes and we should get the money. Obviously, we are hoping for one breakaway run to cash both tickets. If Holani is on the field for most snaps, he should combine for at least 25+ yards over a full game expected to be close where Seattle runs the ball a fair amount.
Total thoughts—I can see betting the UNDER here, and I would expect that weather is uncertain and if it’s clear by kickoff, this total could go back up a point or two. I’ll skip the totals temptation and instead concentrate on two connected RB props.
In summary:
– Weather could factor, especially wind (if so, expect more rushing)
– Denver’s rush defense is poor statistically, meaning Seattle should test this weakness
– Seattle’s backup RB is starting as the #2 in the backfield and should get carries/targets
– This RB (Holani) comes off a miserable game, setting up perhaps a more motivated and focused bounce-back effort this week
– Very low player totals for anyone who is a starter, which is certainly breakable with any decent stats
Wagers:
– Player Prop: SEA RB Holani OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-115)
– Player Prop: SEA RB Holani OVER 24.5 combo rushing/receiving yards (-115)
Adding One More Wager: Denver has been a slow-starting team. As in WORST in the league. They’re also coming off a division road win, which is sometimes a good fade situation. The opponent Seattle has been a decent first-half team, whereas Denver ranks LAST IN THE NFL in first-half scoring, at just 4.6 points per game. This should be a tough test for Denver in the 1H to field an offense that’s struggled early in games, and now faces one of the best stop units in the league. The current spread is Seattle -1.5 in the first-half. I believe the Seahawks are worth a bet based on how these teams have performed in the first 30 minutes of their games, so I’m laying the points in a rare wager on the 1H favorite.
– First-Half Side: SEA -1.5 (-115) v. DEN
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NOTE: MORE PICKS WILL BECOMING UP, THROUGH SATURDAY
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