2026 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 5
WEEK 5 NFL ANALYSIS AND PICKS
PHILADELPHIA vs. JACKSONVILLE (in London)
Line: Jaguars -7.5
O/U: 41.5
Philadelphia is decimated by injuries coming into Week 5, which is why this line is so lopsided. This is in contrast to Jacksonville, which is healthy and is now starting to get the respect they deserve from both oddsmakers and the betting public. The Jaguars might be the AFC’s best and most balanced team.
The hook on 7 is the obvious problem on this spread. We all know the danger of hooks. Just ask the fish. However, I’m not going to let that annoyance dissuade me (besides, that’s why it’s there, begging us to take PHI plus the points).
The Eagles’ offensive line problems create a terrible situation for an offense that’s been struggling anyways. Three of the five spots on the OL are out (one retired in midseason just this past week), which leaves a patchwork unit of untested backups. Then, two skill position game-breakers — Barkley and Smith — are likely to sit this one out. Last week, the birds were an astoundingly awful 0 for 13 on third-down conversations. The week before, Philadelphia was blown out by 20 points to Chicago starting a 38-year-old backup QB. That’s why they are 0-4 ATS, so far. Their two wins were ugly, non-covers.
The contrast couldn’t be more striking. Incredibly, JAX has covered in 11 of its last 12 games going back to last year’s mid-season. Eight of those wins were by 10+ points. I read a stat that in their last dozen games, JAX has outscored opponents by an average of 31-14 (by 17 points), and that includes losses. So, when they win, JAX also tends to cover.
I’m not sure how much of an intangible the London scene will be, but let’s also remember JAX has become the NFL’s leading UK-visitor, and the team has even embraced that role. This will be their 15th game in London, and they will stay in the UK and play against Houston there next week, as well. We can likely count on the Jags to be well-adjusted and enthusiastic about this NFL scheduling oddity. Most NFL teams don’t like the long travel or these international games, but JAX is the exception. This should also be another factor in their favor.
We have a proven team, versus an injured struggling opponent, in a friendly atmosphere and will probably resemble a home game for Jacksonville. I’m convinced the Jags are a solid play up to -8 and a possible wager all the way up to -9.5.
Wager:
Full-Game Side – JAX -7.5 (-105) v. PHI
Note: I have 15 bets (public picks) in the NFL this week. Many of the games are covered in this link. Click to read the full report, which is weekly and always free to access:
https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-2026-week5/
THIS WEEK’S 15 PICKS:
Full-Game Side – JAX -7.5 (-105) v. PHI
Full-Game Side – PIT -2.5 (-115) v. IND
Player Prop – MIN RB A. Jones OVER 18 rush attempts (-110)
Player Prop – MIN RB A. Jones OVER 71.5 rush yards (-115)
Player Prop – NYJ WR G. Wilson OVER 69.5 receiving yards (-115)
Full-Game Side – NYG +4 (-115) v. WAS
Full-Game Team Total – NYG OVER 18 points (-125)
Full-Game Side – CHI -1.5 (-115) v. GBP
Player Prop – CHI RB D. Swift OVER 20 receiving yards (-115)
Full-Game Side – MIA +7.5 (-110) v. CIN
Full-Game Side – LAC +3.5 (-110) v. DEN
Full-Game Team Total – LAC OVER 19.5 points (-105)
Full-Game Side – DET -5.5 (-110) v. ARZ
Player Prop – ARZ QB J. Brissett OVER 37.5 pass attempts (-115)
Full-Game Side – ATL -3.5 (-110) v. BAL
