2026 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 10

 

 

2026-27 NFL SEASON: WEEK 10 – ANALYSIS AND PICKS

2026-27 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 78
LOSSES — 66
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — + $105.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-9-0 (- $105)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,105.

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

–

We are now halfway through the 2026 regular season. Weeks 1-9 was close to a break-even endeavor for me, slightly ahead of the vig, but not as productive as previous seasons.

Last week was bizarre. I consider myself lucky to have not lost a small fortune. I tend to prefer betting underdogs and go “contrarian” against the betting market. So, favorites winning and covering is usually bad news for anyone fading the public.

I read that last week’s games was the biggest in NFL history for favorites. They won 14 of 15 games. Favorites also covered in 11 of 15. It was a horrible week for underdog bettors and those hoping for upsets. Of course, my cash wagers and contest picks were on Arizona +12.5, NY Jets +10, Miami +7, and most painful of all – the Vikings +3.5 as a home MNF underdog, which stank.

What’s important here isn’t complaining, but learning from the losses. Might the market overreact to so many favorites covering? I also wonder – at what point would horrible teams like the Chargers, Dolphins, Titans, etc. be playable? Remember, the sportsbooks have to balance action, so in order to attract Chargers money, it’s going to take a shitload of points. Not that I would tough them at this point.

On the analysis and picks.

–

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS

Player Prop – BAL WR Flowers OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-115)…L
Full-Game Side – CINCINNATI -3 vs. Atlanta (-115)…W
Full-Game Team Total – CINCINNATI OVER 27.5 (-115)…W
Player Prop – CIN QB Burrow OVER 270.5 passing yards (-115)…W
Full-Game Team Total – INDIANAPOLIS OVER 22.5 (-110)…W
Full-Game Side – MIAMI +7 vs. Detroit (-110)…L
Player Prop – MIA WR Washington OVER 44 receiving yards (-110)…L
Full-game Side – NY JETS +10 vs. Kansas City (-110)…L
Full-Game Side – DENVER -2.5 vs. Carolina (-110)…W
Player Prop – CAR QB Young to throw an interception–YES (-120)…W
Full-Game Side – NY GIANTS -3 vs. Philadelphia (-115)…W
Full-Game Team Total – HOUSTON OVER 23.5 points (-105)…W
Full-Game Side – LAS VEGAS +10 vs. San Francisco (-110)…L
Player Prop – LV QB Cousins OVER 250 passing yards (-110)…L
Full-Game Side – TAMPA BAY +6.5 vs. Chicago (-110)…W
Full-Game Total – TAMPA BAY/CHICAGO UNDER 47.5 (-110)…L
Player Prop – CHI RB Swift OVER 15.5 rushing attempts (-115)…L
Full-Game Side – MINNESOTA +3.5 vs. Buffalo (-115)…L

–

WEEK 10 ANALYSIS AND PICKS:

NEW ENGLAND vs. DETROIT (International Game)
Line: Lions -2.5
O/U: 51

This is the early Sunday game in Munich. It is the 8th of nine international games this season. Most of these foreign-based games have been close, exciting, and somewhat high scoring. I see no reason this premier matchup won’t follow the same pattern.

Detroit should enjoy several advantages, certainly on offense which ranks among the league’s best. At 6-2, the Lions are hot and riding a 4-game winning streak. That’s bad news for New England, which got pummeled last week at home facing the Green Bay. That 45-27 home loss was a beat-down. Add notable injuries for the Patriots this week and they deserve to be dogs in this neutral-site showdown, and seemingly should be getting more points than this. I’ll jump on Detroit, laying less than a FG.

On player props, look for NWE QB Drake Maye’s troubles to continue. He’s without decent pass protection and faces a Lions’ defense that surprisingly ranks second in the NFL in sacks. Maye has been dropped 9 times in the last three games, and has been pressured into 9 interceptions, so far (more than his entire last season). We expect a game script against Detroit where New England will be forced to throw more, so it’s reasonable to hope for at least one pick in this game from Maye.

Wagers:
Full-Game Side – DETROIT -2.5 vs. New England (-110)
Player Prop – NWE QB Maye to throw an interception–YES (-135)

–

BUFFALO at NY JETS
Line: Bills -8
O/U: 50.5

I told myself I wouldn’t keep betting on bad teams, so that makes me resist the natural inclination to take the Jets as a divisional home dog at more than a touchdown. The situation looks ideal for the underdog — disrespected, coming off a miserable game, facing an opponent that looked outstanding in beating a 6-1 opponent (Minnesota), while also off a short week, which presumes a possible letdown spot. That’s the old line of thinking and I’m abandoning it this week, simply because if any team can whip ass and cover a large spread on the road, it’s Buffalo. Bills have won five straight in this series.

I’ll jump on these two player props rather than betting the side or total:

SMITH OVER 220.5 — Geno Smith won’t win any MVP awards. Nonetheless, he’s a decent stats padder, especially in catch-up playing-from behind situations, and this is one of them. Smith comes off a bad game in KC last week, yet averages 260 YPG passing. Buffalo is one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, averaging 239 YPG allowed through the air. I don’t believe for a second this defense is as good as they showed in Minnesota last week–versus a dismal QB performance by the opponent. This total on Smith is low, but he remains a proven veteran capable of putting up good stats.

ALLEN OVER 6.5 — Josh Allen isn’t afraid of running the ball. He averages 7 rush attempts per game. His fewest number of carries this season was 5 rushes. He’s run for 10+ twice. It helps that his average rush gain has been nearly 5 yards over the past two seasons (and that includes kneel downs). Speaking of kneel downs, with Buffalo being significant favorites, that increases the chances of late-game kneel downs, which counts as a “rush attempt.” These trivial final moments of games are difficult to handicap, but should be kept in mind when looking for bonus carries that break the O/U projection. Allen could certainly get 7 carries on his own, and when we add in possible “victory formation” plays, that’s enough for me to go with the OVER on this prop.

Wagers:
Player Prop – NYJ QB Smith OVER 220.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop – BUF QB Allen OVER 6.5 rushing attempts (-115)

–

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE
Line: Jaguars -10.5
O/U: 46.5

This looks like a “square” bet. I’m still going to bet it, anyway. Jacksonville is likely to win this one easily. Jacksonville is 6-2 while Tennessee is just 1-7. It’s not just the wins, but the MARGIN of victories that’s impressive. The Jaguars show a killer +108 point differential, best in the NFL. Tennessee averages fewer than two TDs a game and passes for 173 YPG, ranking 28th. They’ll face a Jacksonville defense that’s allowed just 121 points in 8 games, #1 in the NFL. In several stat and team categories, this is one of the league’s best against the worst, or at least in the bottom three. As for this spread……I’m not sure what, if any, *home advantage* exists here. Both teams are also well-rested — TEN off a bye, and JAX off a TNF game 10 days ago. I’d have this line at -13, perhaps even -13.5.

I’ve been fading TEN QB Cam Ward on his passing stats. I’ve gone UNDER on multiple totals when they were in the mid-180s. Now, he’s listed at O/U 199.5 this week, against one of the top defenses. Huh? Exaplain that. Perhaps the view is Ward will throw for garbage yards late. We haven’t seen much of that this season, however. He’s exceeded 183 passing yards in just 2 of 8 games, as 6 stat lines have gone under 183.5. I note this because it’s 16 yards below this total just shy of 200.

Looks way too obvious, doesn’t it? Reminds me of the title of one of my favorite Van Morrison albums, “Keep It Simple.” True that. So, I’ll go with JAX as one of the top winning and covering teams in the league over the past two seasons, and continue fading one of biggest disappointments who has been given plenty of opportunities yet still hasn’t shown he’s a first-round talent.

Wagers:
Full-Game Side – JACKSONVILLE -10.5 vs. Tennessee (-105)
Player Prop – TEN QB Ward UNDER 199.5 passing yards (-115)

–

MIAMI at INDIANAPOLIS
Line: Colts -4
O/U: 37.5

Two horrible teams face off in a game only gamblers will care about. Key betting info here is QB Malik out for the Dolphins and an untested QB making his first NFL start. Miami averages fewer than 17 PPG when healthy, so those numbers should continue to be flat. Weak Miami offensive projections could spell more plays and time of possession for the Indianapolis offense.

I believe this translates into a very favorable possible breakthrough situation for IND RB Jonathan Taylor. He’s listed at just O/U 69.5 rushing yards. That’s a low number for a team desperate to snap a 5-game losing streak and a passing attack that’s struggled badly — which means the Colts are more likely to rely on Taylor this week in a winnable game. Taylor was also taken off the trade block (there had been speculation he’d be moved prior to the dealine). Taylor has yet to surpass 100-yards rushing in any game and this looks like the week he may get there. Note 5 of his 9 games did reach the 90+ mark in rushing and his very best days were against bad teams. Here’s a bad team.

Note that Taylor is listed at only O/U 14.5 rush attempts. He doesn’t get as many carries as the NFL’s premier RBs because his team is so often playing from behind in the second half and has to pass every down late in games. This week, Indy should have the lead or be involved in a close game, meaning the Colts can and should run the ball. Taylor reaching 15+ carries seems very makeable.

It’s rare to get a solid proven RB with modest stat projections. I suspect these low numbers are swayed by results which are from games when the Colts were sizable underdogs. Here, they’re favored for a reason — which means JT should get his carries and yardage.

Wagers:
Player Prop – IND RB Taylor OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-115)
Player Prop – IND RB Taylor OVER 14.5 rushing attempts (-115)

–

NOTE:  This is a partial list of my write-ups and picks. To read more, including reasons for TEN ADDITIONAL PLAYS, please visit this page:  CLICK HERE

https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-2026-week10/

–

FINAL LIST OF WEEK 10 WAGERS:
[For those who just want the picks]

Full-Game Side – DETROIT -2.5 vs. New England (-110)
Player Prop – NWE QB Maye to throw an interception–YES (-135)
Player Prop – NYJ QB Smith OVER 220.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop – BUF QB Allen OVER 6.5 rushing attempts (-115)
Full-Game Side – JACKSONVILLE -10.5 vs. Tennessee (-105)
Player Prop – TEN QB Ward UNDER 199.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop – IND RB Taylor OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-115)
Player Prop – IND RB Taylor OVER 14.5 rushing attempts (-115)
Full-Game Side – ATLANTA +3.5 vs. Kansas City (-115)
Full-Game Team Total – KANSAS CITY UNDER 26 points (-110)
Full-Game Total – CAR / NOR OVER 48.5 yards (-110)
Player Prop – CAR QB Young OVER 245.5 passing yards (-110)
Player Prop – CAR QB Young OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-120)
Player Prop – NOR QB Shough OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-130)
Player Prop – LV TE Bowers OVER 5.5 receptions (-105)
Player Prop – LV TE Bowers OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-110)
Full-Game Side – SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 vs. Dallas (-115)
Player Prop – CIN QB Burrow UNDER 289.5 passing yards (-115)

 

– ALL PICKS ARE NOW COMPLETED –