2025 NFL Season-Win Projections
Here’s my season-win projection for all 32 teams for the 2025 NFL regular season. These picks were entered into the Westgate Season-Wins handicapping contest:
2025 NFL SEASON-WINS CONTEST
WESTGATE ($200 ENTRY)
Rules: Pick OVER or UNDER every season-win total in the NFL this season for all 32 teams. Contest winner is the contestant who picks the most teams correctly. It’s expected that the top-five places will get paid. Expected win percentage/record based on last season: 25 wins / 7 losses
Disclaimer: I do NOT recommend these as wagers. I like perhaps 5 or 6 of the plays, but the rest are mandatory forced wagers (i.e., we MUST make a selection on every team). I have given my reasoning for picking the OVER or UNDER but that doesn’t imply a high confidence level, unless clearly expressed as such.
A general rule in a contest where we pick all 32 teams is — we aim to pick approx. 16 OVERS and 16 UNDERS (or close to it). We also want to aim for a 2-2 split inside each division because it’s slightly less probable for 3 or more teams to all go UNDER or OVER because of six in-division games (i.e, someone has to win, and someone has to lose). There are a few outliers among my selections, but I’ve tried to follow this general guideline.
Here’s all the picks (along with very short write-up on each team, which explains the reason for the pick):
ARIZONA UNDER 8.5
Cardinals play in a tough division. Asking them to hit 9+ seems like a reach. Given that I like SFO and SEA as OVERs, I’m fading ARZ which looks like a 7 or 8 win team.
ATLANTA OVER 8
Falcons were supposed to contend last season, but didn’t. Possible rebound here off that disappointment, with some explosive talent. In a soft division, ATL (playing four combined games vs. NOR and CAR) can certainly hit 9+ wins. I’m really high on the new ATL QB Penix.
BALTIMORE UNDER 11.5
Just because it’s tough for teams to stay healthy and the Ravens rely so heavily on QB Jackson (and perhaps Henry). Very tough division, so I think BAL loses a few they should win, and finishes as a 10- or 11-win team.
BUFFALO OVER 11.5
I usually like fading high totals, but BUF looks so talented they can certainly reach 12-5 or better. Bills are proven winners who have dominated a soft division since NWE’s decline. BUF has posted 13-11-13-11-13 wins in last five seasons which makes lean lean slightly OVER as they’re just a good now as in the recent past.
CAROLINA OVER 6.5
This was a 5-win team in 2024. I think they’ll improve slightly on that record. CAR also showed improvement as the season progressed, finishing 4-4 in their final eight games. Coach-OC-QB combo enters second straight year together, which I think helps and gets them to 7+ wins in a division with no good defenses (Panthers might be the best D of the four).
CHICAGO UNDER 8.5
Too many questions with a new coach, unproven QB, poorly ranked offense and defense, and a tough division. Not sure why anyone thinks Chicago is a possible 9-win team. Easy UNDER bet here.
CINCINNATI OVER 10
Tough to call because I think CINCY wins 10….but since I’m fading BAL and PIT this season, I’ll lean OVER based on stellar offensive potential and some suspicion that the Bengals could improve on defense and reach the 11-win mark.
CLEVELAND OVER 5.5
See our wager on CLE to win the division at 33-1 for a more complete explanation. Click HERE. Flacco and other experienced personnel gives me confidence in this team that is probably undervalued.
DALLAS UNDER 8
This is probably the right number on Dallas, even though they’re usually overrated. Cowboys when healthy are usually competitive, but their defense has serious problems. They are going to surrender a ton of points. Recall Cowboys’ horrible numbers from last season. Dallas missed its window of opportunity and looks like they’ll struggle, playing the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL.
DENVER OVER 9.5
With Peyton-Nix building on last year’s success, they should at least equal their 10-7 record from 2024. Nix has shown he’s the real deal and Denver’s defense will improve. Looks like a 10 or perhaps 11 win team if they play as well again and can stay healthy.
DETROIT UNDER 10.5
Bettors have caught on to the Lions’ problems, and the value fading them is gone. I believe this opened at 11.5 or 11, so seeing it drop to 10.5 would normally tempt an OVER wager. But with their defensive and OL problems, we could see Detroit really fall hard this season. They talent is certainly there to win 11+, but I’m wagering on 9-10 wins and the rise of the Packers.
GREEN BAY OVER 9.5
This is an outdated contest number. Win total jumped to 10.5 after trade. So, a bet on the OVER is obvious here. Other reasons are included in my other write-up (Packers to win the NFC North). See HERE.
HOUSTON OVER 9.5
Texans are close to mediocre in talent but still likely to reach 10 wins by default in a dismal division. Hard to see who threatens Houston for the AFC South crown. We can probably assume the coaching and personnel, now entering their third season together, will match or surpass last season’s 10-7 record.
INDIANAPOLIS UNDER 7.5
This one will raise eyebrows because in a weak division the Colts (8-9 last season) are certainly capable of 8 or more wins. However, Indy now has a QB problem (and controversy, perhaps). Richardson getting pulled in favor of Jones (as the starter) is a red flag that he’s not progressing, likely leaving Indy in the mold of one of the league’s most inconsistent teams.
JACKSONVILLE UNDER 7.5
Admittedly, I have three teams in this division UNDER their win totals. The Jaguars are one of them. Simple reasoning is — I don’t see JAX leaping from 4 wins last season and doubling that to 8 in 2025. QB Lawrence can’t seem to stay healthy and there’s not much to inspire confidence on either side of the ball. Six of seven wins seems like a more likely projection.
KANSAS CITY UNDER 11.5
It’s tough fading any Andy Reid-coached team, especially given his staggering numbers over the last decade (10+ wins for ten straight years and seven 12+ win seasons in that span). However, Kansas City seemed to win every close game last season, and those breaks can’t keep going in favor of the Chiefs (the ref-conspiracy theories notwithstanding). All three AFC West opponents appear to have improved in the offseason, so I’m wagering KC regresses slightly and lands on 11 wins (which is an UNDER).
LAS VEGAS OVER 7 WINS
The Raiders already have a number of parts in place to be competitive, but have been missing a dependable QB, combined with weak coaching. New coach and QB Pete Carroll and Geno Smith (reunited from their days in Seattle) should solve those problems. They won’t win the division, but adding these veterans and leadership to a team with some talent should allow LVR to reach the .500 mark.
LA CHARGERS OVER 9.5
I like balanced teams, and the Chargers look ideal as a duel run/pass threat. Notice the Chargers turned run-heavy in Harbaugh’s first season (5.3 YPC was #2 in the NFL). Now, expect the playbook to open up more. Chargers shocked everyone by finishing 11-6 in 2024….I see no reason why they won’t hit at least 10+ this season.
LA RAMS UNDER 10
The Rams would be a good dark horse team to make a deep run in 2025, but aging QB Stafford is reportedly nursing serious back pain, and that’s one of those things that doesn’t just heal quick. Given I’m high in the 49ers in this division, it makes sense to also fade the Rams, though they should reach 9 wins. A very competitive division doesn’t help their OVER chances (no easy games).
MIAMI UNDER 7.5
The Dolphins look like a mess. Almost every preview forecast has MIA at #22 or lower in power rankings (half of them list MIA at #27 or worse). Given Tagovailoa’s history with injuries, it’s hard to have any confidence in this team. I might go OVER if the number was 6-6.5, but 7.5 appears just a little high, especially if we also think NWE and NYJ will improve coming off really bad seasons.
MINNESOTA UNDER 9.5
Vikings are starting a new QB who’s never taken and NFL snap (he missed the entire first season due to injury). That alone makes me like the fade, though I’m worried this defense might be top-five, which will keep them in many games. A 9-8 finish looks about right.
NEW ENGLAND UNDER 8.5
Many bettors are high on the Patriots. Mike Vrabel was a good hire and Nwe England probably turns things around in a year or two, but asking them to now win 9 games seems like a stretch. They won just 4 games last season and asking for a 5-win improvement is a huge leap. I’m also not sure QB Maye is the guy in NWE. We’ll see.
NEW ORLEANS UNDER 5.5
Typically, we should consider going OVER on the bottom-ranked teams. One reason is, as the season progresses, teams change in personnel and confidence levels. A bad team in September may actually be an average team in December (or vice versa). Trouble is, I don’t see the Saints being competitive with so many new faces, from a first-time head coach to the scraps they have for QBs. Only the NYG will be worse than NOR this season — that’s my prediction.
NY GIANTS UNDER 5.5
Look at the NYG first-half schedule (9 games): WAS, DAL, KC, LAC, NOR, PHI, DEN PHI, SFO. Aside from the Saints (and maybe Cowboys), thats a murderers’ row of opponents likely to leave the Giants at 2-7 (at best). The final 8 games aren’t much easier, which means NYG would have to split and go 4-4 to reach 6 wins. I don’t see that happening with a team led by QB Russell Wilson in likely his final chance (and third team in three years). NYG have the worst OL in the league, and Wilson has lost mobility. This is going to be a long painful season in the Meadowlands (for both NY teams). KEY FACT: NYG FACE NFL’S TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in 2025.
NY JETS OVER 6
I just wrote it’s going to be a long season for NY football fans. However, the Jets could hit 6 or perhaps 7 wins (note that I think 6 is the correct number). I’m fading NWE and MIA, so the Jets position improves slightly. NYJ will play the NFL’s 26th-toughest schedule, so the opposition is very favorable.
PHILADELPHIA UNDER 11.5
Is there such a thing as a Super Bowl hangover? Perhaps. 6/20 missed the playoffs the next season, and 7/20 won 9 or fewer games. Aside from Kansas City (and New England during their dynasty), maintaining excellence is tough in the NFL. Add the fact Philadelphia will play an astounding 11 games (of 17) against 2024 playoff teams this season.
PITTSBURGH UNDER 8.5
Betting against Mike Tomlin-coached teams to suffer a losing season has been like lighting money on fire. He’s never had a sub-.500 season since taking over in Pittsburgh in 2007. However, I’ll walk the plank here and predict this will be his worst season. QB Rodgers simply does not inspire confidence after the Jets’ debacle, and it’s fair to question his motivation and how teammates will react. A very good defense will keep Pittsburgh in many games, but there’s not much talent on offense surrounding Rodgers. Another Problem: One of the NFL’s youngest offensive lines will be protecting the NFL’s oldest starting quarterback.
SAN FRANCISCO OVER 10.5
I’ve already written in detail about the 49ers, who is my pick to win the NFC. Off a Super Bowl appearance just two seasons ago (losing to KC in OT), the 49ers face the NFL’s easiest schedule, by far. A healthy team with a nucleus of talent should allow the Niners to reach 11+ wins and potentially rack up the top seed in the conference, if they can stay healthy.
SEATTLE OVER 7.5
Many of us were surprised by Seattle last season, notching 10 wins with a rookie head coach. What leads us to expect the Seahawks will decline by three full games this season? Even if we account for some regression, that’s a major step downward for a new-look team that enters 2025 with rising confidence. Oddly enough, SEA went 7-1 on the road, but finished just 3-6 at home. Actually, that tells me if a young fresh team can put up numbers like that on the road, they’re headed in an upward direction. Newly signed Sam Darnold comes off a career year (with Minnesota) and will start at QB. Assuming he continues that level of play, this might be the best OVER bet on the entire futures board.
TAMPA BAY OVER 9.5
This is a team that could win it all, if they can somehow improve on defense. The Bucs remind me of an NFC’s version of Cincinnati. Tampa Bay is loaded, and doesn’t get nearly the credit they deserve: In 2024, Bucss offense ranked third in total yards (6,792), third in passing yards (4,257), fourth in rushing yards (2,536), and fourth in points scored (502). Those are elite numbers. Given we see division winners listed at 10.5 and 11.5, why isn’t Tampa Bay grouped in this class? Bucs’ OVER pick is helped by playing in a weak division.
TENNESSEE UNDER 5.5
We’re supposed to bet teams like this OVER, but I can’t do it. This was a 3-13 team last season that showed nothing to inspire confidence. Starting a rookie QB doesn’t help prospects. Titans could be gifted 4-5 wins in a bad division. However, hard to see where 6+ wins will come from.
WASHINGTON OVER 9.5
You have to love what the Commanders did in their first year with a new coach and QB combo, reaching the conference championship game and putting up one of the most exciting performances of any team over a full season. Forecasters now suggest Washington will regress. I disagree strongly. Given that I don’t expect DAL to be good, PHI to possibly suffer a hangover, and the NYG to be the league’s worst team, this becomes an automatic OVER pick in the division. That said, valid concerns about tough WAS schedule keeps me off them as a best bet.
