2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 7
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 49
LOSSES — 45
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — -$300
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-8-0 (-$25)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,700
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
Player Prop – NYG RB Skattebo OVER 11.5 rushing attempts (-120)…W
Player Prop – NYG RB Skattebo OVER 46.5 rushing yards (-115)…W
Player Prop — NYJ QB Fields OVER 199.5 passing yards…L
4th Quarter Only — NYJ +1.5 vs. DEN (-110)…L
4th Quarter Only — CAR +0.5 vs. DAL (-110)…W
First Half: CLE +3.5 vs. PIT (-115)…L
First-Half — ARZ/IND OVER 23.5 points (-115)…W
Full-Game Team Total — INDY OVER 26.5 points (-140)…W
LA Rams -7 vs. Baltimore (full-game)…W
Full-Game Total — LAR-BAL OVER 44.5…L
Parlay Pays 2.6-1 — Rams -7 / Over 44.5 points…L
LAR RB Williams OVER 72.5 yards rushing (-115)…L
Seattle (pick) vs. Jacksonville (full-game)…W
Player Prop: SFO RB McCaffrey OVER 54.5 receving yards (-115)…W
Player Prop: NOR WR Olave OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-115)…W
Player Prop: JAX QB Lawrence to throw an interception–YES (-145)…L
Green Bay -14 vs. Cincinnati (full-game)…L
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 7:
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs. CINCINNATI (O/U: 43.5) [THUR.]
This matchup features a battle of the aged QBs. Both Rogers and Flacco are 40+, the two oldest starters in the NFL.
Rogers appears to be gradually moving into a comfort zone with his new team. The Rogers of the old Packers’ days may not be back again, but at least he’s playing well and the Steelers plodding offensive system won’t ask him to do everything on his own. Perhaps Rogers has found the perfect team in the twilight of his career.
As for Flacco, last week I was shocked by how well the newly-acquired QB and the Bengals offense performed, all in less than a week’s preparation. Cincinnati still lost by 9 points, but easily covered the +14 line at Green Bay. The Cincy statline wasn’t overly impressive, yet the Bengals didn’t commit any turnovers, either–which had been a major problem with Cincy and Flacco (when he was with his former team, the Browns). More importantly, they looked competitive for the first time since QB Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending injury. The question becomes — was this just a temporary blip? Or, will Cincinnati continue to play above market expectations in their upcoming games? My answer — I have no idea.
Pittsburgh now 4-1 SU, looks like a lock to win the NFC North. Once again, Mike Tomlin was underestimated by everyone. Now, he’s probably destined not only for yet another winning season, but the division crown, as well. Of course, the primary reason why the Steelers sit alone atop the standings is due to key injuries and poor quarterbacking on each of the three rivals — Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. The Steelers haven’t exactly burned up the scoreboard or stats sheets and still they’re a prohibitive favorite to win the AFC North (currently -190 on futures markets).
One player prop stands out. I like PIT WR Metcalf to enjoy a big night. He’s listed at 4.5 receptions. While the OVER may be tempting, the stronger play appears to be OVER on receiving yardage. The O/U 64.5 is a big number and high plateau for any receiver to surpass. This does look like the ideal set of circumstances for Metcalf to break that number and roll up some big yardage:
— Metcalf has 219 yards in his last two games. Both easily went OVER on yardage. Rogers (with a new team and system) started slowly, but now appears to be getting into a confidence groove with Meltcalf.
— Metcalf is a big play receiver, averaging nearly 19 yards per catch this season. Watch his yards after the catch, as he tends to pick up extra yardage due to missed tackles and some added effort at the end of plays.
— Cincinnati is a punching bag for opponent’s passing games. The Bengals’ defense ranks #31 in yards per catch. It also ranks #31 in passing yards per game. Metcalf has almost the perfect opponent this week to be a fantasy dream.
— Metcalf has scored a touchdown in four straight games. When we see that kind of stat line, it usually means he’ll continue getting the majority of targets, especially downfield (on potentially long gains).
— In each of the last three games, Cincy’s defense has surrendered 80+ yards to the opposition #1 WR.
I lean OVER 43.5 on this game, and YES on Flacco to throw at least one interception. That said, the best bet looks to be the Steelers best receiver to surpass his projected yardage total against a terrible pass defense.
Wager:
Player Prop — PIT WR Metcalf OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
<<< Picks will be updated through Saturday >>>
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
Final Picks for Week 1 (For those who just want the picks)
Player Prop — PIT WR Metcalf OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115)…L
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. LA Rams (full-game line)
Tennessee Titans +7 vs. New England (full-game line)
Philadelphia-Minnesota UNDER 43.5 (full-game total)
Cleveland Browns -2 vs. Miami Dolphins (full-game line)
Cleveland Moneyline (-140)
Miami Team Total UNDER 16.5 points (full-game) (-105)
Miami Team – First Drive of Game ends in PUNT (+105)
Player Prop: MIA QB Tagovailoa UNDER 189.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: MIA QB Tagovailoa UNDER 30.5 pass attempts (-105)
Player Prop: MIA TE Waller UNDER 34.5 yards (-120)
Player Prop; CLE WR Bond UNDER 27.5 yards (-125)
Player Prop: MIA WR Waddle UNDER 56.5
Player Prop: MIA TE Waller UNDER 3.5 receptions (-120)
Player Prop; CLE WR Bond UNDER 2.5 receptions (-105)
Player Prop: MIA WR Waddle UNDER 4.5 receptions (+105)
Player Prop: MIA K Patterson UNDER 6.5 points (-135)
New Orleans +4.5 vs. Chicago Bears (full-game side)
New Orleans-Chicago UNDER 47 (full-game total)
Carolina Panthers -1.5 vs. NY Jets (full-game side)
Player Prop — IND QB Jones OVER 222.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop — WAS QB Daniels OVER 1.5 TD passes (-120)
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Houston Texans (full-game line)
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