2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 18

 

2025 NFL: WEEK 18 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS

2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 154
LOSSES — 119
PUSH — 7
NET WIN/LOSS — +$1,995
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 11-6-0 (+$385)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $11,995.

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

DAL-WAS: Full-Game Side – Washington +8.5…W
DAL-WAS: Full-Game Total – UNDER 51…L
DAL-WAS: Player Prop – WAS WR McLaurin OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-115)…W
DET-MIN: Player Prop – MIN QB Brosmer to throw an interception–YES (-155)…L
DEN-KC: Full-Game Side – Denver -13.5…L
HOU-LAC: First-Half Line – Houston +.5 (-115)…W
HOU-LAC: First-Half Team Total – Houston OVER 9.5 points (-115)…W
HOU-LAC: Full-Game Line – Houston +2…W
HOU -LAC: Player Prop – HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 7.5 points (-115)…W
ARZ-CIN: Full-Game Line – Cincinnati -7 (-115)…W
ARZ-CIN: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 252.5 passing yards (-115)…L
TB-MIA: Player Prop — MIA RB Achane OVER 73.5 rushing yards…W
NWE-NYJ: Player Prop — NYJ PK Folk OVER 1.5 field goals (+120)…L
NOR-TEN: Full-Game Line — New Orleans -2.5 (-115)…W
NOR-TEN: Player Prop — NOR QB Shough OVER 222.5 passing yards…W
NYG-LV: Player Prop — LV RB Jeanty OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-115)…L
LAR-ATL: Full-Game Line — Atlanta +8.5…W

 

THE FUTURE IS NOW:

MIKE VRABEL (TO WIN COACH OF THE YEAR)
DRAKE MAYE (TO WIN MVP)

I have two highly-unusual wagers to recommend to readers this week. Most “futures” bets are made prior to the start of the season. But, many betting sites also allow wagering up until the end (in this case, Feb. 4), with odds fluctuating throughout the season and even into the post-season. In my many years of public handicapping and posting picks (this marks my 25th season), I don’t recall ever posting such any late-year “futures” bets. But this season offers two investments that are so compelling that I’m departing from conventional practice.

The best two values in NFL futures betting at the moment may both involve the New England Patriots. QB Drake May seems almost certain to win the MVP Award given his maturity, leadership, stats, and the great season by the Patriots. However, he’s become a big favorite now, listed at -365 and that high vig price may turn off many bettors. I still think there’s value. Rams QB Matthew Stafford was the co-favorite heading into Week 17, but the Rams’ messy loss to the Falcons and Stafford throwing 3 picks really hurts his chances. Moreover, I can’t see how voters would pick a QB on a team that won two fewer games than the Pats, and finished third in its division over the first place likely 14-win Patriots, especially given the dramatic year-to-year turnaround. Stafford boasted a massive season stats wise, but can’t match what Maye did with his team including new coach, with far less talented skill players on the offense.

The best value of anyone on the awards board could be with head coach Mike Vrabel, who is +105 to win Coach of the Year. This season is packed with strong coaching candidates, probably the strongest field in NFL history (and yes, I looked at this–rarely have 5-6 coaches all been worthy of the award) – giving the props to Chicago, Seattle, Jacksonville, and San Francisco coaches who all merit strong consideration. It’s worth stressing that each one would be worthy of winning in any other season were it not for such strong candidates). However, it’s impossible to overlook the team which could end up as the AFC’s top seed. New England’s turnaround from a 4-13 record last season to a possible 14-3 record has been nothing short of miraculous and Vrabel deserves much of the credit. SFO’s Kyle Shanahan is the second choice in pricing, and given the 49ers injuries this season, his results are remarkable. One could argue Shanahan has more pressure and has held the ship together better than any coach. However, the 49ers were expected to be a playoff team, so 11 or 12 wins was par. So, instead – Vrabel should get the nod. It helps that he’s a former player, is well-liked by the media (don’t discount that factor in voting), and has already won the award once (with Tennessee in 2021).

Should we make BOTH wagers? I say– yes. I don’t see any scenario where both Maye and Vrabel both get shafted. Certainly, there could be some split voting (there is some crossover among voters), in which case it probably goes Maye for MVP and I recommend two futures bets:

Futures Bet — Drake Maye to win MVP (-365)
Futures Bet — Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year (+105)

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 18:

NFL Week 18 begins with the two most meaningful games in the NFC played on Saturday. Nice move by the league to give us the two premier games as stand-alone contests, free of distraction from other games. I’m often critical of the league, but let me give them credit when they get something right. This flex scheduling is ideal, both for watching and wagering. Now, on to the Saturday games:

CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY [SAT.]

Full-Game Side — Carolina +3 (-120)
Full-Game Total — CAR-TB UNDER 44 (-115)

Remember the old line from the movie – Wall Street? Never get emotional about a stock. Similarly, we’re not supposed to get emotional about betting games and picking teams. That said, how can we possibly trust Carolina? The Panthers are probably the right side here based on several indicators. They’re getting +2.5 in most spots and I’ve even seen outlier numbers at +3 (-120). Carolina +3 is insanely tempting. The value on the Panthers getting points isn’t so much based on their own strengths and recent performances, but rather an obvious fade of Tampa Bay which has crumbled in the second half of the season. The fact that the Bucs could still potentially win a division title is an abomination for a team that’s lost 7 of its last 8 games, with the only “win” being a non-cover at home versus terrible Arizona. Is this team really playing for first-place and a playoff spot? That’s a crime. A compelling argument could be made that either of these potential division winners – Carolina and Tampa Bay – isn’t as good right now as either Atlanta (winners of 3 straight) or New Orleans (winners of 4 straight). Sickening.

Still, I have to fade Tampa Bay just because the reasons appear so numerous. The Bucs had legit excuses in mid-season for a decline when they lost their best WR and RB, plus a few OL starters. But Tampa Bay has been healthy in recent weeks and yet still struggles with offensive consistency. After going 6-2 SU to start the season, their 1-7 SU mark since then is an easy fade, especially since they’re favored this week. The Bucs are just 2-7 ATS as a favorite, and a dismal 5-11 ATS overall. While Carolina has some ugly stains on their record as well, at least they’re 9-7 ATS, with outright wins vs. Green Bay and LA Rams. So, there’s more evidence to suggest the Panthers get the cover based on past performance. Losing former assistant Liam Coen (now head coach at JAX) appears to be a big loss for this Bucs offense, especially when we contrast the dramatic changes on both teams based on a coaching move.

As for recent form, Carolina’s loss to Seattle last week is no shame, especially given the strength of the opponent. In contrast, Tampa Bay had NO EXCUSE in losing to Miami, which was starting a rookie QB. The Bucs looked outclassed on both sides of the ball, and even with the division title dangling in front of them as added motivation (they actually need help also to win the NFC South), I don’t see how Tampa Bay can flip a magic switch and suddenly reverse a terrible slide on the back-end of their schedule. Now watch Mike Evans score three TDs and fuck us all (pessimism on parade, here).

As for the total, UNDER 44 looks like the right bet. This matchup produced a 23-20 final just a few weeks ago, and this looks like a similar possible outcome. We certainly want to catch the push on 44, if possible. I’m locking in these good numbers on Wednesday—–so it’s Carolina +3 and UNDER 44.

Please, please, please…..cover Mike Evans.

SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO [SAT.]

The whole world seems to be leaning to and betting on Seattle, and it’s easy to understand their logic. That’s why the Seahawks have moved from a small underdog….to a -1-5 road favorite. All the marbles are up for grabs on Saturday night as the winner not only is crowned as NFC West division champ, they also seize the top seed and become the instant favorite to win the NFC.

Seattle does look like the superior all-around team right now, especially given the strength of their defense. Seattle ranks in the top-five of nearly every statistical category. Contrast that with the 49ers, which looks like a very average defensive unit, especially when we look at their soft schedule of opposition. We watched Chicago move the ball up and down the field last week against the 49ers. I can only imagine what Seattle might do.

I have a huge wager on San Francisco to win the NFC (at 9 to 1 odds), a futures bet that was made back in August. That certainly jades my outlook and handicapping on this game. I can’t argue with anyone who takes Seattle and lays the small number, but I can’t join the Seabird’s party given that I really and desperately need San Francisco to win this game, get the top seed, take a bye week off, and host possibly two playoff games in which they’ll likely be favored. A loss makes the road to the Super Bowl much rockier, and perhaps even unlikely. Again, our previous bets shouldn’t influence how we look at current matchups, but given I have a possible $18,000 payout coming (with SFO winning the NFC), I’ll just admit to being too biased to make an objective pick on this game. It scares the hell out of me that Seattle’s only defeat in their last 11 games was a 2-point loss at LA Rams (right there with these two teams, and perhaps the best team in the NFL). It seems insane to bet against Seattle right now — I have no idea why anyone would do that, even with the 49ers offense playing so well to close out the season.

No action.

 

………….see all the picks WITH WRITE-UPS in the LINK at end of this post.

 

FINAL LIST OF PICKS FOR WEEK 18:
(For those who just want the picks)

Futures Bet — Drake Maye to win MVP (-365)
Futures Bet — Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year (+105)
CAR-TB: Full-Game Side — Carolina +3 (-120)
CAR-TB: Full-Game Total — UNDER 44 (-115)
CLE-CIN: Full-Game Side — Cincinnati -7.5
NOR-ATL: Full-Game Side – New Orleans +3.5 (-115)
NOR-ATL: Player Prop – NOR QB Slough OVER 229.5 passing yards
NOR-ATL: Player Prop – NOR Slough OVER 20.5 pass completions (-115)
TEN-JAX: Player Prop — TEN QB Ward OVER 20.5 completions (-120)
DAL-NYG: First Half Team Total — Dallas OVER 13.5 points
DAL-NYG: Full-Game Line — Dallas -3.5
ARZ-LAR: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett to throw an interception–YES (-155)
IND-JAX: Team Prop — Houston to make longest FG (-130)
MIA-NWE: First-Half Line — New England -6.5
MIA-NWE: Full-Game Line — New England -10.5

 

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.