2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 14

 

 

2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 109
LOSSES — 94
PUSH — 5
NET WIN/LOSS — +$310
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-7-2 (-$135)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,310

NOTE: ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]

GB-DET — Full-Game Total: UNDER 48.5…L

KC-DAL — Full-Game Total: UNDER 52.5…L

KC-DAL — Team Prop: Will both kickers make 33+ yard FGs–YES (-150)…L

CIN-BAL — Team Prop: CIN first-quarter team score OVER 3 points (-130)…P

CIN-BAL — Team Prop: CIN first-half team score OVER 10 points (-115)…W

CHI-PHI — Full-Game Side: CHI +7 vs. Philadelphia…W

CHI-PHI — Player Prop: PHI RB Barkley UNDER 80.5 yards (-105)…W

HOU-IND — Full-Game Side: HOU +4.5 vs. Indianapolis (-120)….W

HOU-IND — Player Prop — HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 1.5 FGs (-130)….W

ARZ-TB — Full-Game Side: ARZ +3 (-115)….P

JAX-TEN — Full-Game Side: TEN +6.5 (-115)….L

JAX-TEN — First-Half Side: TEN +3.5 (-115)….L

LAR-CAR — Full-Game Side: CAR +10.5….W

NOR-MIA — Full-Game Side: MIA -5….L

DEN-WAS — Player Prop — DEN RB Harvey OVER 12.5 rush attempts (-120)…W

ATL-NYJ — Player Prop — NYJ QB Taylor to throw an interception–YES (-125)…L

 

THIS WEEK’S THOUGHTS: CHICAGO BEARS?

How did the Chicago Bears go from a horrible 5-12 team that finished in last place a year ago to first-place team currently on a 5-game winning streak? Oh, and Chicago just upset the defending Super Bowl champs – on the road!

In a previous report, I flat-out admitted being wrong about the Bears. So, I’m the least qualified to try and explain the reason for their unforeseen turnaround. Instead, I asked Kevin Un – my friend and colleague and a native Chicagoan – to explain why the Bears have been so successful (to date):

[Note: Edited in parts for space and clarity.]

 

Here is what I saw in the 2024 Bears:

A team with a rookie QB, a terrible offensive line, and a really bad head coach. I understood why the GM would go out and get quality receivers, but doing so without a functioning offensive line was a total disservice to QB Caleb Williams, who was often forced to scramble for his own survival.

Last season, the offense was a shambles. Coaches couldn’t make decisions and get plays in on time. One thing that I have noticed is that great teams get to the line of scrimmage with plenty of time to spare. You can’t expect a rookie quarterback to perform when he gets to the line of scrimmage with only 10 seconds on the play clock. He doesn’t have time to look over the defense, either for analysis or learning purposes. Williams took it upon himself to try to be a playmaker. He threw for 20 TDs and only 6 INTs. He handled the press well. Although they only won 5 games, they were competitive in most games and could have won 4 more.

Plus, when Williams had time, he was deadly accurate. He certainly has the talent.

Now, on go the 2025 season:

Obviously, we all have the benefit of hindsight now, but here were my thoughts going into the 2025 season. ABSOLUTELY HUGE was the firing of head coach Eberflus (Bears’ coach 2022-24). I wouldn’t hire the guy to coach a flag-football team. I think he tried to force Williams into his offensive scheme, rather than build an offense that made the best use of Caleb’s talents. It was clear that Williams could not be a pocket passer, mostly because the offensive line couldn’t form a pocket. Yet rather than designing roll out plays, Eberflus stuck to his plans, and he and Williams never got in sync. While not being openly critical of Eberflus, you could tell that Williams didn’t respect the guy as a coach.

Enter new head coach Ben Johnson, who helped turn the Lions into a real contender. I agree that it often takes years for an offensive coordinator to become a successful head coach, but when you are starting from below zero, there just isn’t any downside. The Bears beefed up their offensive line and I was excited when they made the move to draft Colston Loveland with their first pick. I think this guy is going to have a great career. I never thought the Bears made proper use of their tight ends in the passing game, at least not in the way that DAL, SFO, KC, GB, and others have done in years past. This seemed to indicate to me that the Bears were finally going to open up their passing game and give Williams an additional target.

I saw a team that, with a bit of luck, could have won 8 or 9 games in 2024 and the early part of their 2025 schedule did not look so bad. In the division, I saw a best-case scenario of 4 wins (MIN,MIN,GB, DET) but more likely just 2 wins. With games against Dallas (very inconsistent in 2024) LV, WASH (who they should have beaten in 2024) NO, CIN, NYG, PIT and CLE, they could have a 9- or 10-win season I thought. Also, If DET was going to run away with the division, the Week 18 game might be a freebee.

They are gaining discipline as the season goes on. Hopefully the offensive line will commit fewer false start penalties. The coaches are getting plays sent in early, and it is not unusual to see the Bears lined up with 15-20 seconds on the play clock. Think of the great quarterbacks like Manning, Brady, Farve, Rodgers. They often got to the line early and were able to adjust based on defensive alignments because they had time. Williams is not quite there yet in terms of reading and adjusting the way the great ones did, but he no longer has to be in panic mode as he approaches the line of scrimmage.

Also, and I am just guessing, it seems as if the Bears have added another level of depth to the offensive play calling. I have noticed Williams throwing a lot of passes within 2 – 2.5 seconds. I wouldn’t be surprised if they have designed plays where the coaches have said that on this particular play, you are looking to get rid of the ball in 2 seconds. You get to make 2 reads and if nothing is there, throw it away. On another play call, it might be the same thing, except that after 2.5 seconds, NOW you can scramble and try to make something happen. I’m only guessing, but they are doing SOMETHING to take some of the mental pressure off him. I think he has 4 INTs this year. One was a meaningless end of the game or end of the half situation, and I believe another was a pass that was deflected. The guy just isn’t going to give the ball away like Vinny Testaverde.

I wasn’t shocked when they beat PHI, because PHI is an inconsistent team definitely out of sync. I don’t know if it’s post Super Bowl let down or something else. I was glad to get +7.5 and probably would have passed if the line was only +3, but I believe that game was a game where the Bears proved something to themselves. it was their Superbowl.

All of that being said, I expect them to continue playing well. GB looks far better overall, although they have shown some weakness. I think the Bears will be +7 in those two games, +7 vs DET, a favorite (+6) over CLE and maybe +4 vs SF.

Are they the next KC Chiefs? I think that’s a stretch, but they are certainly moving in that direction. They have a rock-solid running game. Their passing game is developing nicely. The offensive line is holding up, and their defense is playing well despite missing FOUR linebackers. 2 of their 3 current linebackers came directly from the practice squad, and they seem to have not missed a beat.

Just some thoughts off the top of my head — while I’m a Bears fan, I am also a realist. In the past they have been very inconsistent, but I like the trend I am seeing. Are they ready to win more than one playoff game? I don’t think so, and even one will be tough, assuming they make the playoffs at all. But they were definitely positioned to improve and they have done that.

Note: And now one more thing about Williams: He has character. He has confidence and he has skills. When given time, his accuracy is amazing.

Finally, he is a leader. He talks strategy and tactics to his linemen on the sidelines. He yells at coaches. How does one gain the respect of his teammates and coaches? By putting himself out there and “owning it”. The story goes that during training camp in 2024, he asked a teammate, “What do you do here?”. The player replied that he was a punter, to which Williams replied with something like, Well you’re not going to punt much here.

The Bears finished 2024 with the second most punts in the entire year. In 2025 they are currently tied for 12th. He took a lot of heat for that comment because obviously he was wrong. But it showed that he had a lot of confidence in his own abilities and was willing to carry the load.

A bad team needs a catalyst to turn things around and Caleb Williams has the abilities and the heart to be that catalyst.

– Kevin Un (contact: kevinun1@comcast.net

 

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 14:

DALLAS vs. DETROIT [TNF]

First Quarter Moneyline: Detroit (-145)
Game Prop: First team to score: Detroit (-130)
Team Total: Dallas OVER 25.5 points-full game (-115)
Team Total: Detroit OVER 29.5 points-full game (-115)
Game Line: Detroit -3-full game (-105)

I’m making some unusual wagers on this game. They are “unusual” in the sense they’re somewhat contradictory. My reasoning is this: I’m weighing the patterns of past performances and betting according to the game scripts of these two teams, which have been very different this season.

Both teams need this game badly, for different reasons. Dallas saved their season the last few games, but still has only an 8 percent chance of winning the division and just a 15 percent chance of making the playoffs according to probability. The Cowboys cannot afford any losses the way the NFC is stacked at the top with multiple teams enjoying impressive W-L records. Detroit at 7-5 can’t afford a loss either, not if they still have hopes of winning the NFC North division. So, we can expect an all-out effort this week from both teams.

The question becomes — which team’s “best effort” is superior? I think that’s undoubtedly the Lions. The Cowboys remain loaded with question marks. And let’s not overreact to just the last few games. The lengthier data shows the Detroit combo of head coach Campbell / QB Goff are 18-13 SU and 22-9 ATS when coming off a SU loss. Note they had won 14 in a row SU while going 13-1 ATS, before failing to cover against the Giants last month. So, this remains a great team to bet on when coming off a loss. I especially like this spot given Dallas is coming off such a high from its recent home wins.

The game script I expect (and hope for) is as follows: Detroit wins a high-scoring game. The data shows that Dallas often starts off poorly, but comes back and makes a game of it. Here’s hoping the Lions ultimately pull away with a victory and pointspread cover. Some added notes for consideration (credit ActionNetwork.com for some of this data):

— Dallas is 10-2 to the OVER when betting on their team totals this season (full game).
— Dallas is a horrible first-quarter team. The Cowboys had enjoyed the lead at the end of the 1Q just 1 time in 12 games. They’re also a dismal 3-9 ATS in the 1Q.
— Dallas, for reasons that may have something to do with coaching and/or QB Prescott needing to “warm up” is an excellent performer over the remainder of the game, going 10-2 in the 2Q (the best ATS mark in NFL), and a combined 17-7 in the 3Q and 4Q. So, we should bet against Dallas to start off slowly, but close strongly.
— The game total at 54.5 is very high, especially for a TNF game. That said, I’ll do a partial hedge here and wager both DET and DAL exceed their totals. It’s also good to catch a win on 27 (for Dallas) and 30 (for Detroit), which are key numbers in team totals. Dallas is 8-4 to the OVER in all games this season, but with 54.5, that’s a big number.

Emotionally, this has to be a *circle the wagons* game for 7-5 Detroit, which was expected to win the division but finds themselves in 3rd place, looking up at surprising Chicago and Green Bay (which beat the Lions twice). With a road game at the LA Rams next week, this might very well be a “must win” game for the Lions. So—playing at home, coming off a tough loss, and staring at a tough schedule ahead (3 of next for on the road) coming up, we can have confidence for Detroit to win and cover a small number. This being a third-straight home game for the Lions also helps. In terms of betting value, note that this line probably would have been Detroit -6 (or higher) only a few weeks ago before Dallas pulled off two unexpected wins (vs. PHI and KC), while Detroit struggled at home (vs. NYG and GB). The public appears to be all over Dallas now that they’re back in the playoff chase, but that could be an overreaction. This is a great case of buying a very good team at a bargain price and fading the team that’s often overvalued by the betting public.

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG

CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.

 

THIS WEEK’S FINAL PICKS:

DAL-DET — First Quarter Moneyline: Detroit (-145)…W
DAL-DET — Game Prop: First team to score: Detroit (-130)…W
DAL-DET — Team Total: Dallas OVER 25.5 points-full game (-115)…W
DAL-DET — Team Total: Detroit OVER 29.5 points-full game (-115)…W
DAL-DET — Game Line: Detroit -3-full game (-105)…W
WAS-MIN — Game Line: Minnesota -1.5-full game (-115)
PIT-BAL — Game Line: Pittsburgh +6-full game (-115)
PIT-BAL — First-Half Line: Pittsburgh +3
NOR-TB — First Quarter Line: Tampa Bay -2.5
MIA-NYJ — First-Half Line: NY Jets +1.5 (-115)
MIA-NYJ — Game Line: NY Jets +3
CIN-BUF — First-Half Line: Cincinnati +3.5
CIN-BUF — Player Prop — CIN RB Brown OVER 12.5 rushing attempts (-105)
CIN-BUF — Player Prop — CIN RB Brown OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115)
TEN-CLE — Player Prop — TEN QB Ward OVER 31.5 passing attempts (-105)
LAR-ARZ — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 248.5 passing yards (-115)
DEN-LV — Full-Game Total: UNDER 41
DEN-LV — Player Prop — LV QB Smith UNDER 204.5 passing yards (-115)
DEN-LV — Player Prop — LV QB Smith to throw an interception-YES (-150)
HOU-KC — Game Line: Houston +3.5
HOU-KC — Player Prop — HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 1.5 field goals (-115)
HOU-KC — Player Prop — KC QB Mahomes to throw an interception-YES (-105)
HOU-KC — Player Prop — HOU RB Marks OVER 13.5 rushing attempts (-120)