2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Wild Card Playoff Round
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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 131
LOSSES — 117
PUSH — 4
NET WIN/LOSS — – $475
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-8-1 (- $115)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL; $9,525.
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 18):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 18 REPORT HERE
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +18…{L}
Full-Game Total: CLE-BAL UNDER 42.5…{L}
Full-Game Side: CINCINNATI -1.5…{W}
Player Prop: CIN QB BURROW to have more TD passes than WILSON (-250)…{P}
Full-Game Team Total: NEW ENGLAND OVER 16.5 (-120)…{W}
Moneyline (to win game): NEW ENGLAND +120…{W}
Player Prop: ATL QB PENIX OVER 223.5 passing yards (-115)…{W}
Game Prop: GREEN BAY TO SCORE FIRST AND WIN THE GAME (-125)…{L}
Full-Game Side: JACKSONVILLE +3.5…{W}
Player Prop: IND QB FLACCO TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION–YES (-130)…[L}
Player Prop: JAX WR THOMAS JR. OVER 80.5 RECEIVING YARDS…{W}
Full-Game Side: SEATTLE -6.5 (-115)…{L}
Player Prop: SEA QB SMITH OVER 240.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)…{L}
Player Prop: SEA GAROPPOLO TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION–YES (-135)…{W}
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-115)…{L}
Player Prop: ARZ QB MURRAY OVER 29.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)…{L}
Two-Team / 6-point Teaser: SEATTLE -.5 / WASHINGTON -.5 (-125)…{W}
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR NFL PLAYOFFS (WILD CARD ROUND):
— LA CHARGERS at HOUSTON —
This game presents a real test as to what factors we prioritize in handicapping. Houston looks like the weakest team in the entire playoff field, right now. Houston made the postseason only because they play in such a bad division and automatically get six soft opponents on their schedule. The Texans posted a lackluster 5-6 W-L record among non-division opponents. Meanwhile, the Chargers look like a team built for the playoffs. They have more wins than the Texans. LAC also allowed the NFL’s fewest points (17 PPG). They were 6-3 on the road and entered this contest on a three-game win streak. The Chargers being favored by -3 makes sense.
However, at least three solid betting trends seem to indicate Houston is the right side of a bet.
(1) First, over the past decade, home underdogs in playoff games are 6-4 SU and an even more impressive 8-2 ATS heading into this postseason.
(2) Second, as for LAC’s superior W-L record, in the 30 NFL playoff games since 2003 where the visiting team had a better record, they are just 14-16 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (38 pct.). So, team records apparently have no value, except driving up the price on the perceived superior team.
(3) Finally, home teams that score less than 23 points (i.e. below-average offenses) actually have a stellar record in playoff games — going 14-5 SU and 13-5-1 ATS (72 pct.) the past 15 seasons.
Last year, Houston was in a nearly identical situation as a home host versus a team that appeared to be on the rise (at the time). The Texans with a young QB and lots of inexperience faced the Browns led by playoff veteran Joe Flacco. Houston played its best game of the season, winning 45-14. That big margin is unlikely to happen again, but it does reveal Houston as a team capable of stepping up at home when the games count the most.
In addition to betting on the home underdog Texans getting points in the first-half (+1.5) and for the full game (+3), I’ll add a wager on Houston’s team total to break O/U 19.5 points. Catching a win on 20 is essential here, as that’s a key number. The Texans have one of the better long kickers on their roster with Fairbairn. He’s an 87 percent kicker on attempts, with a very impressive 13/16 on 50+ FG attempts. A good kicker really helps on a wager like this, especially with a win at 20. The Chargers’ defense also wasn’t nearly as solid on the back end of the 2024 season, allowing more than a TD more per game in their final eight contests. Houston should be able to hit the 20+ mark.
On player props, I see three worthy wagers. Strangely enough, all involve LAC QB Herbert.
(1) Let’s begin with Herbert’s rushing yardage. He’s been bothered by an ankle injury much of the season. That’s reduced his mobility, yet not affected his play as a passer. What’s decreased significantly is his running. Herbert has surpassed 20+ yards in only 6 of 17 games this season. We saw a fluky 42-yard scamper last week, and another 28-yarder two weeks before. Perhaps those two outlier runs skewed the number here, but Herbert is not a rushing QB and I doubt he’ll break this number without a long run.
(2) The Chargers’ reputation has been transformed by HC Harbaugh into a run-heavy team. However, the later half of the season saw Herbert’s passing figures increase steadily. Take a look at his by-game week-to-week statline. Herbert didn’t exceed 30+ attempts until week 5. Yet, he’s thrown for 30+ attempts in each of his last five games. LAC wideouts have also improved, so more balls have been thrown to those targets. I’m also wagering the Chargers will be in a tight game or perhaps trailing, which also tends to increase pass attempts. In games when the Chargers didn’t have to produce much offense, they relied more on the run. I don’t expect conservative play to happen in a road playoff game.
(3) See the previous points (above) about QB Herbert’s passing attempts. This plays strongly into him also breaking the O/U on pass completions. Herbert is a 66 pct. passer, often relying on short high-percentage throws. His completion numbers in the last five games show 28-26-23-21-21 (note the increase as most recent games are first), and most of those were games won by the Chargers in which passing wasn’t as necessary. Also, unlike much tougher outdoor games like NWE, KC, CLE, DEN, and PIT (which made up five of their road games this season) wind and field conditions in Houston, much like the dome in LA, are ideal for passing.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 (-115)
First-Half Side: Houston +1.5 (-115)
Full-Game Team Total: Houston OVER 19.5 points (-130)
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 20.5 pass completions
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 31.5 pass attempts
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert UNDER 20.5 rushing yards
— PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE —
I don’t understand this line. I’d list this as 7, at most. We are getting +9.5 points in one of the NFL’s best rivalries, which has produced an overwhelming number of close games in recent seasons. Nine of the last 10 contests have been one-score outcomes. Betting markets have underestimated Pittsburgh all season long, failing to credit them as an experienced, well-coached team that often thrives in the role as an underdog. Steelers HC Tomlin ranks as perhaps the best coach in NFL history as an underdog. He’s 38-14-1 ATS when getting points against AFC North opponents (71 pct.), and that includes an even better mark of 13-3-2 (80 pct.) when getting points against Baltimore. I understand bettors who decide to skip this game. But how anyone can fade the history of this rivalry in laying -9.5 points makes no sense to me.
Of course, Pittsburgh stumbled into the playoffs on a 4-game slide. However, that was versus a gauntlet of tough foes — including PHI, KC, BAL, and CIN (playing for its playoff life). To be impartial, this marks yet another brutal test versus a team that looks unbeatable when at their best. I don’t expect covering will be easy, nor that Pittsburgh will even win it. However, staying within double digits is more than reasonable, especially when we consider the Raven’s lowly 3-6 SU mark in playoff games under Harbaugh since their Super Bow win nearly a decade ago, which includes a disappointing 2-4 SU mark with QB Jackson.
No doubt, BAL boasts a far superior offense. However, that advantage is offset by PIT with the better defense. These have been the type of games Tomlin-coached teams have more often than not risen to the occasion. Assuming we believe defense wins championships, PIT clearly deserves our trust. Let’s also point out the Ravens’ pass defense ranks #31 in the NFL (yardage allowed). If QB Wilson and the Steelers passing game can establish any kind of rythym, BAL is certainly vulnerable to the pass. Hence, even playing from behind (which usually means throwing more) provides the Steelers with some advantages.
Pittsburgh appears to be a very average team, offensively speaking (based on the stats). However, they’ve cleared this total in both games against the Ravens, this season. This low of a number is usually reserved for losing teams with bad offenses, or match-ups against great defenses. That’s not the case in this matchup. The Steelers should reach this very low threshold, based apparently on some overreaction to their current losing streak.
Finally, give me the NFL’s leading scorer to go OVER a low number. PIT K Chris Boswell is enjoying a monster season, with 158 total points scored. He’s perfect on XPs and 41/44 on FGs, including 13/15 beyond 50 yards. Elite kickers are almost always totaled at 7.5+ but this total is lower based (presumably) on the Steelers’ offensive concerns. Oddly enough, if PIT struggles — especially in the red zone — that’s a huge bonus on a prop like this with Boswell. I understand that totaling Boswell at 7.5 would have to be juiced heavily to the UNDER. That said, a standard vig of -115 on this player prop with the best kicker in the league (statistically speaking) and also getting an average point total (6.5 is the standard O/U) strikes me as a strong value with the OVER. FWIW, Boswell exceeded the 6.5 figure in 12/17 games this season.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: Pittsburgh +9.5
Full-Game Team Total: Pittsburgh OVER 16.5 points (-115)
Player Prop: PIT K Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-115)
FINAL PICKS:
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 (-115)
First-Half Side: Houston +1.5 (-115)
Full-Game Team Total: Houston OVER 19.5 points (-130)
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 20.5 pass completions
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 31.5 pass attempts
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert UNDER 20.5 rushing yards
Full-Game Side: Pittsburgh +9.5
Full-Game Team Total: Pittsburgh OVER 16.5 points (-115)
Player Prop: PIT K Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-115)
Full-Game Team Total: Denver OVER 19.5 (-115)
Player Prop: DEN QB Nix OVER 1.5 TD passes (+130)
Full-Game Side: Tampa Bay -3
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-160)
Full-Game Total: OVER 50
Full-Game Side: LA Rams +2.5 (-105)
First-Half Side: LA Rams +1.5 (-120)
Player Prop: MIN QB Darnold UNDER 23.5 pass completions (-115)
