2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 3

 

 

STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 23
LOSSES — 18
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — minus $83
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6-5 (+$42)
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LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 2):

Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 2 REPORT HERE

6 wins – 5 loses – 0 push (net plus +$42)

First Half Side — Baltimore -4.5…..LOST
Team Prop — Baltimore to Score First and Win the Game (-113)…..LOST
Full Game Side — Jacksonville -3…..LOST
Player Prop — CLE Kicker Hopkins OVER 5.5 points (-125)…..WON
Full Game Total: OVER 40…..LOST
Player Prop: BG Kicker Narveson OVER 5.5 points (-130)…..WON
Full Game Side — New Orleans +6…..WON
First Half Side — New Orleans +3.5 (-115)…..WON
Player Prop — NOR KICKER GRUPE OVER 6.5 POINTS (-133)…..WON
Player Prop — DET WR Williams OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-116)…..WON
Player Prop — LAR RB Williams OVER 73.5 rushing yards (-115)…..LOST

 

THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (WEEK 3):

 

UPDATED: THIS WEEK’S WAGERS–FINAL REPORT:
(for those who just want the picks)

NWE vs. NYJ — Moneyline NY Jets (-260) …. won
Two-Team Six-Point Teaser — NY Jets (pick) / Las Vegas (pick) (-125)
Player Prop — NWE RB Gibson OVER 22.5 yards (-110) …. won
GB vs. TEN Total Successful Field Goals (Both Teams) OVER 3.5 (+115)
Full Game Side: Minnesota +2.5
First Half Side: Minnesota +1.5 (-125)
Full Game Side: Indianapolis -1.5
Full Game Side: NY Giants +6.5
Full Game Side: Baltimore -1.5
Full Game Side: LA Rams +7 (-120)
Full Game Side: Tennessee -2.5 (-120)
First-Half Side: NY Giants +3.5 (-105)
First-Half Side: LA Rams +3.5 (even)
Player Prop: NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points (-137)
Player Prop; ATL PK Koo OVER 6.5 points (-110)
Full Game Side: Pittsburgh -2.5
Player Prop: DEN QB Nix OVER 190.5 passing yards

LATE ADDITION: ATL TE PITTS OVER 3.5 receptions (-120)
I saw this prop on tonight’s SNF game, and though the o/u is probably correct (it can’t be 4.5, that would be too high given stats), there’s a really good opportunity for Pitts to have a big game, and catch far more balls than this total indicates. Pitts caught just 3-3 in each of first two games this season. He averaged 3.5 per game last season, but that was with poor QB play. Two factors put me on Pitts in this game tonight. ATL back inside the dome, and now QB Cousins is in his third game and likely more comfortable with the offense. I looked at last season’s percentage of throws to TE by Cousins and it’s 26 percent, 5th highest in the NFL. So, he likes going to TE. Given KC can pressure with the pass rush, look for TE Pitts to catch balls after blocking. The bigger stat however is KC’s horrid numbers defending TE catches in their first two games. presenting a possible dream matchup for TE Pitts. The Chiefs have been atrocious defending against TEs this season. They allowed Isaiah Likely with Balt to rack up NINE receptions for 111 yards in Week 1 and then let Mike Gesicki of Bengals to record SEVEN catches for 91 yards in Week 2. So, the O/U at 3.5 -120 taking the OVER with a good TE and QB capable of delivering the ball appears like a solid wager.

 

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NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS (THU)
Spread: Jets -6
Moneylines: Patriots +225 / Jets -260
Total: 38.5

• This week, fans and bettors will be treated to another intriguing matchup in the NFL’s Thursday night game. The NY Jets play their home opener hosting New England, which has been much better than expected in its first two games. The Patriots have dominated this series, including a 15-game win streak (2018-2023). These AFC East rivals split last season’s series, 1-1.
• Typically, a matchup with rivals calls for a bet on the dog. It’s even more compelling in this case since New England has dominated the NY Jets over the years. In fact, the Jets have won just one time in their last 17 tries. The Patriots have also played more consistently in their two games this season, going 1-1 straight up, and covering both times (2-0 ATS). New England could easily be 2-0 SU right now, except for their OT loss last week. Meanwhile, the Jets could be 0-2, except for Tennessee gifting them last week’s game with mistakes. It’s also been a good stretch for underdogs in the NFL overall. These are just a few of the reasons why I won’t lay the points with the Jets.
• Stats don’t lie: So far, the Patriots have run the ball for 170-185 yards in splitting their first two games. Meanwhile, their two opponents ran the ball for just 70-46 yards. That’s a staggering disparity of yardage. If New England can replicate anywhere close to these numbers again, they’ll obviously have a great shot at pulling an upset.
• Another concern here is Jets QB Rodgers, who in two tries still hasn’t played a game that demonstrates he’s the missing piece for the Jets. The 40-year old looked bad against San Francisco and then played just well enough to win last week. Throwing for 175 yards per game isn’t Rodgers-like. Could this be the breakout game for Rodgers and the Jets offense?
• Answering the question above, I predict the answer will be — yes. This has the makings of a statement game for the Jets. Head coach Saleh’s team hasn’t played up to expectations on either side of the ball. The Jets offense has sputtered. But it’s the defense that’s the bigger concern. The defense was supposed to be the team’s strength, yet it ranks 25th in yardage allowed. Surrendering 24.5 points per game won’t cover most pointspreads, when laying nearly a TD. Still, this looks to be the ideal opponent to reverse those numbers and get back to expectations.
• We can probably toss out much of the old data, for two reasons. Remember, all those numbers were under Bill Belichick, now retired. Moreover, the Jets haven’t fielded a quality quarterback in many seasons. In short, these aren’t the same teams from a few years ago, or even last season.
• The Patriots problems are almost entirely confined to an offense that is decimated by injuries. The offensive line will likely miss two starters, and all five were listed as “questionable.” That’s not always a sign they won’t play, but does indicate the Pats OL should be a weakness this week and most certainly will not be at full strength. The Jets defense also picked up 7 sacks in two games, so look for the Patriots offense led by QB Brissett to struggle, especially versus a NYJ defense looking forward to getting back on track. The home opener should help with what could be a dominant performance. The Patriots don’t pose much threat outside, as the WRs caught just three passes last week. While the Pats did run the ball very effectively, that likely will not be the case versus the Jets this week who will stuff the line and force Brissett to throw more than New England wants.
• A low-scoring game normally triggers interest in the dog plus the points, especially a spread this high. Many stats point to a Pats cover, but I’m riding on the intangibles in this game. A short week with the better defensive team quarterbacked by a future Hall of Famer eager to make a big splash in NY following his disastrous debut a season ago on this same field whispers taking the favorite. But I’m not laying this many points. Instead, I’ll count on the NY Jets to figure out a way to win the game, concentrating mainly on shutting down the run, forcing New England to throw, and getting some turnovers.
• It’s a small edge, but give the Jets the advantage in the kicking game. NYJ have reliable veteran Jeff Zuerlein, while the Patriots replaced the NFL’s worst kicker last season (just 65 pct of FGs made) with Joey Slye, who is kicking in just his third game. Slye’s longest career FG in the NFL is 37 yards. So, it’s doubtful the Patriots get many bonus points from long kicks.
• A player prop to consider is counter to betting on the Jets but it still might be worth a wager. Patriots RB Gibson is the #2 back, and is lined at just 22.5 rushing yards this week. He had 11 carries for 96 rushing yards last week. We can expect another decent workload, even though he won’t get the 20 carries of lead back Stevenson. Since the Patriots moved the ball so well on the ground in the first two games, we can expect more of the same, especially in the first half. They also could be enticed by recent history showing the Jets allowing 130 yards on the ground to lowly Tennessee. This all points to Gibson getting enough carries to reach 23+, even if he’s mostly shut down for the night by the Jets.
• Counterargument: We always risk an upset with division rivals and the NFL has been a graveyard for home favorites, in recent seasons. On paper, the Patriots deserve to be the play. However, too many intangibles plus the short week, and perhaps a little more desperation to show the rest of the league the Jets should be taken seriously as a contender likely points to a strong all around effort. The Patriots injuries also add weight to a play on the favorite, but only on the moneyline and as part of a teaser wager.
• Picks:
  Moneyline — NY Jets (-260)
  Two-Team Six-Point Teaser — NY Jets (pick) / Las Vegas (pick) (-125)
  Player Prop — NWE RB Gibson OVER 22.5 yards (-110)

 

GREEN BAY at TENNESSEE (SUN)
Spread: Titans -3
Moneylines: Titans 143 / Packers +130
Total: 38

• Stat of the Week: Guess which team has the NFL’s #1 ranked defense? Answer: Tennessee Titans (in yards allowed–just 206 YPG). In my Week 1 report, I wrote that the Titans defense was the most underrated in football. They were listed #12 entering this season and have improved. That ranking should stay close to the same this week facing a Green Bay offense lacking in big-play capability, and without much of a passing threat. This factor should heavily weigh on handicapping sides, totals, and props on this game.
• GB QB Willis was drafted by Titans. He played in 11 games for the Titans, starting three (1-2 SU)….completing just 53 percent of his passes, with zero TD’s, 3 INTs. Last month, Willis was traded to Green Bay for a draft pick and now 27 days after the trade he’s starting against his old team. How does this unusual fact impact our handicapping?
• Answer — I’m not sure it will matter. Green Bay won’t be relying on Willis to win. Instead, they’ll pound the running game. First two games, Packers ran ball for 163/261 yards. which are monster numbers in today’s pass-happy NFL. Look for Green Bay to stick with the same game plan that worked in effectively shutting down Indianapolis last week. All of this plays into a conservative, run-oriented, low scoring game.
• Meanwhile, the Titans could be 2-0 right now if they didn’t have a mistake prone QB making appalling mistakes. QB Levin won’t be tasked with winning the game with his arm, but instead should rely on a low-risk game plan that relies on ball control and the strength of the Titans, which is their defense.
• These factors play into what I believe will be a game of field goals. Prop odds list both teams at O/U 1.5 successful field goals, lined at minus money. However, the GAME TOTAL of combined FGs is 3.5, lined at +115. This strikes me as a solid value since either team could knock through multiple kicks. I doubt we’ll see much 4th down excitement, as both teams have offensive questions and will be taking points when available. Journeyman PK Nick Folk has been a solid kicker for the Titans and can be counted on as a high-percentage kicker. Meanwhile, Packers PK Narveson (who I bet OVER on points last week, winning easily) has made 3/4 in each of this first two games of the season. Rather than bet either side at a minus price, I think the better value is on the combined prop getting +115.
• Counterargument: I’m trying to come up with an argument as to why both teams can’t or won’t tally 4+ FGs in a game likely to be conservatively-coached, led by inexperienced QBs, with kickers who have proven their reliability to score points. I can’t come up with anything, unless one side dominates the other and FGs become irrelevant, which I don’t think happens in a 3-point lined game with a low total.
• Picks:  Team Prop: GB-TEN Total Successful Field Goals (Both Teams) OVER 3.5 (+115)

 

ADDED BETS (WEEK 3):

Key Betting Angle of the Week:

In Week 3 (since the 2010 season) winless teams (0-2 SU) have gone 25-24-2 SU. Moreover, they have been outstanding teams to back going 36-15-0 ATS when playing against 1-1 teams.

That’s a “blind bet” win rate of 70 percent for 0-2s vs. 1-1s with compelling evidence to continue backing these teams. Though I won’t advise betting them across the board, this is a good foundation for handicapping several games since this angle applies to seven matchups in Week 3.

The reasoning for backing these struggling teams is simple: Most bettors don’t want to wager on winless teams, so they tend to be given extra points to incentivize betting and balance the action. Combine this with the 0-2 team often being more desperate and motivated in their next game, and this sometimes spurs a better performance in Week 3. Let’s also grade the 1-1 teams as not necessarily among the elites, since they’ve lost a game themselves. Hence, the undervalued team is typically a wise bet versus an overvalued team. Here are the teams and situations where this angle applies:

Indianapolis -1.5 vs. Chicago
Tennessee -3 vs. Green Bay
NY Giants +6.5 vs. Cleveland
Carolina +4.5 vs. Las Vegas
Baltimore -1 vs. Dallas
LA Rams +7 (-120) vs. San Francisco
Cincinnati -7.5 vs. Washington

I’m surprised to see 4 of the 7 games have the winless team favored. that may dissuade some enthusiasm. Still, a solid case can be made for all of these winless teams. Here are the four sides I’m betting.

Picks:

Full Game Side: Indianapolis -1.5
Full Game Side: NY Giants +6.5
Full Game Side: Baltimore -1.5
Full Game Side: LA Rams +7 (-120)

I’m passing on these three winless teams, even though the angle applies:

Tennessee — I can’t lay a FG here. If the Titans’ line dips to -2.5, then this will be a play. Otherwise–pass.
Carolina — The Panthers finally figured out their top draft pick is a bust, but backup QB Dalton isn’t getting my money. Carolina’s defense is just as problematic, inspiring little confidence.
Cincinnati — I can’t lay more than a TD given how slow the Bengals have started recent seasons.

UPDATE: TENN is now -2.5 a -120, so this will be a graded wager.

 

Subset of Betting Angle on Winless Teams (Above)

One of the subsets of the betting angle which calls for taking winless teams is to also bet them in the first half, particularly when they are dogs and getting points.

The same reasoning applies, but is applicable to the first half. Teams with 0-2 records are eager to come out in Week 3 and play well, especially early. I don’t have data on the 1H ATS results during that same period of trials, but if these win;ess teams are covering 70 percent for the full game in Week 3, then I presume they are also covering the first half line more often than not. So, that should make this subset angle a +EV play.

The two wagers I’ll go with in the 1H are taking big underdogs, particularly those teams getting a FG or higher.

Picks:

First-Half Side: NY Giants +3.5 (-105)
First-Half Side: LA Rams +3.5 (even)

My Kicker Props:

This has been a great season for kickers (Week #2 was the highest FG rate in NFL history, including 90 percent of the 50+ attempts being successful). Fortunately (for us), few bettors appear to have taken advantage. I discovered kicking props a few seasons ago, and wrote about them, which have been quite profitable. Now, they are juiced up and harder to find. Still, I have two good kicking prop bets for this week’s games. I’ll keep the explanations simple–bettors can almost never go wrong wagering on FG numbers and scoring to go over on phony rubber grass in domes, ideal for kickers. ATL and NOR home games in particular look attractive with veteran QBs and plenty of playmakers on both offenses. The Saints have managed to break FG scoring props just on extra points alone.

Player Prop: NOR PK Grupe OVER 6.5 points (-137)
Player Prop; ATL PK Koo OVER 6.5 points (-110)

FRI NIGHT UPDATE: Injury-Related Wager (Possible Middle Opportunity)

In the LA Chargers-Pittsburgh game, QB Herbert has been reported as questionable with an ankle sprain. Those are the types of injuries that don’t heal themselves quickly. Herbert is now said to be a “game time decision.” However, the line hasn’t moved much based on this news, which could impact the most important offensive player on the field for either team. Herbert is certainly worth 3-4 points depending upon his fitness to play, as backup Easton Stick would get the nod instead. Stick stank last season. He was winless in 4 starts and sacked 14 times. The Chargers are likely to run the ball heavily no matter who starts, but Herbert on the bench takes away some of the deep threat and Pittsburgh can concentrate on stopping the run. Pittsburgh is probably as bad a place for an unproven QB to start, and the way the Steelers defense is playing this is a tough assignment for either QB.

I’ll bet PITT -2.5 now with the prospect Herbert doesn’t start and the line moves across the 3 and likely to -4. Even if Herbert starts, he’s not 100 percent and could have problems in the visitors home opener facing a solid defense.

Pick:

Full Game Side: Pittsburgh -2.5

 

SEE ALL MY PICKS THIS WEEK — CLICK HERE 

 

HANDICAPPING CONTESTS –PICKS (WEEK 3):

GOLDEN NUGGET ULTIMATE FOOTBALL CHALLENGE PICKS — WEEK 3

(overall record: 25-17-0)

 

TICKET 1 (9-5-0)
WYO +9
WASH ST -11.5
NC ST +20.5
ARMY -6
SMU +3
UL LAF +3
NFL-TENN -1.5

TICKET 2 (8-6-0)
WYO +9
NAVY +9.5
ARMY -6
SMU +3
UL LAF +3
FL ATL +2.5
NFL-TENN -1.5

TICKET 3 (8-6-0)
WASH -10.5
UL LAF +3
SMU +3
KANSAS +2.5
UCLA +24
ARMY -6
NFL-TENN -1.5

 

WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST PICKS — WEEK 3

(Overall record: 25-20-5)

Ticket 1 (4-5-1)
PIT -1.5
IND -1
TEN-1.5
LV -4.5
LAR +7.5

Ticket 2 (5-4-1)
PIT -1.5
TEN-1.5
LV -4.5
LAR +7.5
NOR -2.5

Ticket 3 (5-4-1)
PIT -1.5
NOR -2.5
TEN-1.5
LV -4.5
LAR +7.5

Ticket 4 (5-4-1)
PIT -1.5
NOR -2.5
TEN-1.5
BAL (pk)
LAR +7.5

Ticket 5 (6-3-1)
PIT -1.5
TEN-1.5
LV -4.5
LAR +7.5
BAL (pick)

 

CIRCA MILLION PICKS — WEEK 3

(Overall record: 26-24-0)

Ticket 1 (4-5-1)
PIT -1.5
IND -1
TEN-1.5
LV -4.5
LAR +7.5

Ticket 2: (4-6)
PIT -1.5
MIN +2.5
TEN -2
LV -5
LAR +7

Ticket 3: (6-4)
PIT -1.5
NYG +6.5
TEN -2
LAR +7
ATL +3.5

Ticket 4: (5-5)
PIT -1.5
TEN -2
ARZ +3
LAR +7
ATL +3.5

Ticket 5: (5-5)
PIT -1.5
MIN +2
TEN -2
ARZ +3
ATL +3.5