2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 13

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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 89
LOSSES — 71
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — + $526
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 4-6 (- $285)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL; $10,526.
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 12):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 12 REPORT HERE

Player Prop: PIT-CLE — CLE QB WINSTON to throw an interceptions (yes at -200) … {W}

Player Prop: PIT-CLE — CLE RB CHUBB under 54.5 rushing yards (-115) … {L}

Player Prop: DEN-LVR — DEN QB NIX over 214.5 passing yards (-115) … {W}

Two-Team 5-Point Teaser — HOU -2.5 vs. TEN / WAS -5 vs. DAL … {L}

Full-Game Side — CHI +3.5 vs. MIN (-120) … {W}

Player Prop: DET vs. IND — IND WR DOWNS over 54.5 receiving yards (-115) … {L}

Player Prop: DET vs. IND — IND PK GAY over 6.5 points (-120) …. {L}

First-Quarter Side: CAR +3 vs. KC (-115) … {L}

Full-Game Total: ARZ-SEA UNDER 47.5 … {W}

Player Prop: PHI-LAR — PHI QB Hurts to score a TD–yes (-135) … {L}

 

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.

 

 

THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (WEEK 13)

 

CHICAGO VS. DETROIT — PLAYER PROP
Line: Lions -10 / O/U: 48
The 10-1 Lions are the NFL highest-scoring team. They’ve also won 9 straight games and appear to be unstoppable. In the early game, Detroit faces Chicago on a short week. This looks like a bad mismatch. The Bears have fallen into last place and lost 4 straight. These are the reasons why the Lions are laying such a big number to the struggling Bears. However, don’t be so quick to lay the points. Note that division rivalries can be tricky. In fact, the Bears last two defeats (to division rivals Green Bay by 1 and Minnesota by 3) were both winnable games in which Chicago covered the pointspread. Key Trends: Since 2005, double-digit favorites are 9-0 ATS in Thanksgiving Day games. Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games. Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 home games.
We expect Detroit will be ahead much of the game, which forces Chicago to throw more passes and be more aggressive. Look for RB D’Andre Swift to get plenty of touches in this game, mostly on rushing attempts, but also a few passes, as well. In fact, it’s the passing yardage which I expect will push this number over the total of 63.5 rushing and receiving yards (combined). Swift has the talent to get to 64+ on the ground alone, but when we also consider he’s nabbing nearly 3 catches per game on average, that could tally some insurance yardage. Note that in last week’s game, Swift caught a 30-yard pass completion, which may give QB Williams more confidence to throw in his direction going forward. The big stat on combined yardage is targets and touches — and Swift usually gets enough numbers to eclipse his stat projections. He’s had 16+ touches (carries and receptions) in eight straight games, so as long as we get that number, we hope he gets the real estate to go with it. But I really like Swift’s breakaway potential, with both 50+ and 40+ long plays on the ground and in the air, so far this season. So, he could take any ball potentially to the house for a long gain.
Pick: Player Prop — CHI vs. DET RB SWIFT over 63.5 (combined) rushing and receiving yards (-117)

 

NY GIANTS VS. DALLAS — PLAYER PROP
Line: Cowboys -3.5 / O/U: 37.5
This initially looked to be a highly-anticipated NFC East showdown when the season first started. Now, it’s more like the battle for the basement, between two teams hoping to stay out of last place. This is clearly the biggest turkey of the day. That’s because both teams have been mired in a mid-season tailspin–especially the hapless NY Giants which can’t move the ball on offense, let alone score enough points to win a game. Based on this week’s media reports about lots of internal squabbling and finger pointing, the 2-9 Giants appear to have mailed it in for the season. Similar criticism may have applied to Dallas also, but that was before the surprising Cowboys stunned Washington last week in a thrilling road upset. We’ll see if that shocking confidence builder carries over to this week’s game—I’m leaning to the affirmative. Let’s consider who’s the more motivated team…..Dallas has been historically bad at home, setting a number of dubious records for ineptitude by losing by 20+ points in every game played this season at Arlington. However, that could lead to added incentive to do well and restore some pride here at home on Thanksgiving Day. Dallas should be able to finally end their ugly streak and keep this one close at the very least, and likely pull out the win versus a rival they’ve dominated in recent years. Note that Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games vs. NY Giants. Admittedly we can throw out most of the trends and stats because now both teams are starting backup QBs. Furthermore, one – if not both coaching staffs – are likely to be axed at the end of the season.
Dallas is my lean in this game laying -3.5. That said, the more compelling wager looks to be a player prop on Cowboys QB Cooper Rush to go over the number in passing yardage. Rush was horrid in his first start (vs. Phila.) but has also shown steady improvement in each of the last three weeks. Rush has put up 600 yards passing combined in his last two games — throwing for 354 and 247 yards respectively against Houston and Washington. The total here is 209.5, a relatively low figure, which can be eclipsed by multiple outcomes. Assuming the Cowboys are trailing or in a tight game, Rush can be expected to put up another 35-40 pass attempts this week. But even if the Cowboys are leading, I expect that Dallas after being so beat up in the press and among their home fans want to make a bold statement after playing so poorly at home for so many consecutive games. Moreover, if Dallas is to have any shot at sneaking back into the NFC playoff hunt, it’s Rush who will lead them on offense and nothing would be better for him and this team than to a roll-up-the-stats-and-score blowout. Also helping the QB stat count, Dallas is also fortunate to have one breakaway WR capable of changing the game on his own, with Lamb now coming into form like we saw last season. Lamb has been targeted more than a dozen times and caught nearly that many passes in each game since Rush has been under center. The duo are now more comfortable with each other, which could lead to a big play or two. The Giants defense surrendered nearly 300 yards to Tampa Bay’s QB Mayfield in last week’s game and Rush could approach that number again. So, this appears to be a good OVER wager.
Pick: Player Prop — NYG vs. DAL QB RUSH over 209.5 passing yards (-115)

 

MONDAY LATE ADDITION (Also posted to Facebook):

Tonight, we have one added player prop. WR Courtland Sutton (DEN) OVER 66.5 receiving yards.

DEN has blossomed recently, especially on offense, and Sutton is one of the primary reasons. His yardage count in the last five games is 97-78-70-122-100, with 6+ catches in each game. All those numbers easily eclipse tonight’s O/U projection on yardage.

CLE defense ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in yardage allowed to opposing WRs. Weather shouldn’t be much of a factor — temp in 30s, no snow, no wind. MNF home game for Broncos also likely sparks some added excitement.

One intangible–Sutton scored TDs last week, so Nix will certainly have confidence throwing in his direction.

This will be recorded as this week’s final cash wager.

 

 

FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK 13:

(For those who just want the picks):

Player Prop — NYG vs. DAL QB RUSH over 209.5 passing yards (-115) … {L}

Player Prop — CHI vs. DET RB SWIFT over 63.5 (combined) rushing and receiving yards (-117) … {W}

Player Prop — LV vs. KC CARLSON OVER 5.5 points (-121) … {L}

Full-Game Side — PIT vs. CIN: STEELERS +3 (-120) 

First-Half Side — TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +3.5 (-115)

Full-Game Side — TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +6

Full-Game Side — LAR vs. NOR: NEW ORLEANS +3 (-120)

Player Prop — LAR vs. NOR QB CARR over 215.5 passing yards

Full-Game Side — TB vs. CAR: TAMPA -5.5

Player Prop: TB vs. CAR QB MAYFIELD over 1.5 TD passes (-115)

Full-Game Side — LAC vs. ATL: ATLANTA +1.5

Full-Game Side – INDY vs. NWE:  NEW ENGLAND +3 (-120)

Player Prop — SEA vs. NYJ: QB SMITH UNDER 234.5 passing yards (-115)

Full-Game Side — SFO vs. BUF: SAN FRANCISCO +7

Player Prop — CLE vs. DEN WR Courtland Sutton OVER 66.5 receiving yards

 

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.