2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 11
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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 78
LOSSES — 63
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — + $331
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-3 (+ $463)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL; $10,331.
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 10):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 10 REPORT HERE
Player Prop — BALT QB JACKSON UNDER 48.5 rushing yards…[W]
2-Team Teaser: MINN -.5 / SFO -.5 (-125)…[W]
2-Team Teaser: MINN -.5 / LAC -1.5 (-125)…[W]
2-Team Teaser: SFO -.5 / LAC -1.5 (-125)…[W]
Full-Game Side: MINNESOTA -6.5 (-115) vs. JAX…[L]
Player Prop: ATL RB ROBINSON OVER 26.5 receiving yard…[W]
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +4 vs. BUF…[L]
Player Prop: KC QB MAHOMES OVER 234.5 passing yards…[W]
First-Half Side: ARIZONA +.5 (-115) … [W]
Full-Game Moneyline: ARIZONA +108 … [W]
Full-Game Side: DALLAS +7.5 vs. PHI …. [L]
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (WEEK 11)
WASHINGTON VS. PHILADELPHIA (TNF)
NFL fans and bettors should enjoy another outstanding matchup this week as first-place in the NFC East is on the line. Philadelphia is favored by -3.5 points hosting Washington, a spread that seems a little high. I’d make this line PHI -3 (-105). The Eagles at 7-2 SU have won five straight, but look at the list of dogshit teams they’ve defeated in that stretch — Dallas, Jacksonville, NY Giants, and Cleveland (okay, perhaps beating 3-5 Cincinnati counts as a quality win). I lean strongly towards Washington plus the number, which has been underestimated by the betting market all season. The Commanders are coming off a last-minute razor-thin loss to Pittsburgh last week, but there’s no shame in getting beat late by one of the best teams in the league at the moment. Underdogs have been on fire lately, and though that might not be relevant here, taking points in a big division rivalry game is usually a good starting point in handicapping.
Despite its impressive W-L record, Philadelphia has been one of the worst first-quarter teams in the league this season (and last season, as well), ranking 30th of 32 teams in points scored for 2024. In their first seven games, the Eagles suffered a horrid succession of ineptitude, failing to score a single point in any first quarter. That changed when playing Jacksonville (Week 9), but that was at home against a terrible defense. Last week, the Eagles scored just 7 points in the opening frame, which was only due to Dallas’ rusty outmatched backup QB fumbling the ball with a turnover deep in the Eagles red zone on an early drive. Otherwise, Philadelphia would have been blanked again as the offense really struggled the first 20 minutes or so of that game. In other words, this has been a team that starts slow for quite some time. Meanwhile, Washington ranks as the 6th-best 1Q scoring team, thus far. Washington has to be the dog in the 1Q, of course by virtue of getting +3.5 for the full game. That said, the way the Eagles’ have been flat offensively early in most games cannot be dismissed. I don’t see oddsmakers making any adjustment here. So, I’ll take advantage of what appears to be a lack of reaction by the betting public. I’ll also note that both defenses have been pretty equal in the 1Q, allowing an average of 3.5 points in the first 15 minutes of games. All of these factors point to the Commanders getting +.5 (a half point) as a smart value bet.
I found an interesting prop at Circa (Las Vegas) in this game. We can wager on which starting QB will have the most rushing yards. Washington’s Daniels is a small favorite. Based on stats, these two QBs are about even, but recent results tell a very different story. Since his injury the week prior to the Chicago game, Daniels has rushed for diminishing yardage each week. Perhaps this is an effort to stay healthy. However, given he had only 3 rushing attempts all of last week (for 5 total yards–and that was in a close game), his fewer rushes might be entirely by design. The week before that, Daniels picked up only 35 yards. A recent news report noted the coaching staff doesn’t want him running the ball, as the Commanders are now a serious playoff contender and so the QB rushing plays by design are being reduced (if he was a rookie on a losing team, it’s not as necessary to play it safe). The Commanders also have three starting offensive lineman listed as questionable. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s good for a fade of Daniels’ rushing yardage, because an OL that fails to pass protect can create more QB rushing attempts. Nonetheless, this should be noted. Meanwhile, we can always count on Philadelphia QB Hurts to get a fair number of carries each week. Jalen’s rushing stats sometimes look more like a RB — as evidenced by 7-13-10-7-14-8-8-13-13 carries in respective games over the last ten weeks. Hurts’ rushing yardage has gone 56-67-37 in his last three games, good for an average 42 YPG for the season. Hurts’ figures are likely to be boosted by the short yardage specialist he’s become, which sometimes nets 1-5 yards alone on a QB sneak. Let’s add Hurts’ ridiculously high rushing TD numbers in the last month — a whopping 8 TDs in the last four games. While those were mostly short-yardage situations, they do show the likelihood that Hurts will run the ball anywhere on the field and especially at the goal line. Naturally, a prop bet of this kind is extremely volatile. One long run probably locks up a win for either QB. However, given Hurts has been running the ball more lately, with superior results, and the fact the Eagles are favored in this game which implies they’ll control the ball more, Hurts probably deserves to be the favorite on rushing attempts and yardage. We’re getting even money on this prop, which is an added bonus.
Picks:
First Quarter Side: Washington +.5 vs. PHI (-115)
Player Prop: PHI HURTS more rushing yards than WAS DANIELS (even)
UPDATE: Here’s a 5-minute video with my reasons for making three wagers on the INDY-NYJ game this week. Click below and watch:
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK
(For those who just want the picks):
First Quarter Side: Washington +.5 vs. PHI (-115) … [W]
Player Prop: PHI HURTS more rushing yards than WAS DANIELS … [W]
Two-Team Teaser: GREEN BAY (even) vs. CHI / HOUSTON -1.5 vs. DAL
Player Prop: MIN RB JONES OVER 59.5 rushing yards
Player Prop: INDY PK GAY OVER 6.5 points (-110)
First-Half Side: INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 vs. NYJ (-105)
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +4 vs. NYJ
First-Half Side: NEW ENGLAND +3 vs. LAR
Full-Game Side: LA CHARGERS -1.5 vs. CIN
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.