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Posted by on Jan 23, 2025 in Blog | 0 comments

2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Conference Championship Games

 

 

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2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 145
LOSSES — 134
PUSH — 4
NET WIN/LOSS —  – $1,030.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-7-0 (- $75)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL; $8,970.
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 20):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 20 REPORT HERE


Full-Game Side: Kansas City -8.5 W
Moneyline: Kansas City (-455) W
Player Prop: KC QB Mahomes will throw an interception–NO (-115) W
Full-Game Side: Washington +9 W
Game Prop: Washington to score first and win the game (+650) L
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-120) W
Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 232.5 passing yards (-115) W
Full-Game Total: LAR-PHI UNDER 44 L
Player Prop: LAR QB Stafford to throw an interception–YES (-125) L
Player Prop: LAR WR Nacua UNDER 2.5 rushing yards (-120) W
First-Half Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 24.5 L
Full-Game Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 51.5 L
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 19.5 rushing attempts (-120) L
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 110 rushing yards (+143) L

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.

 

 

ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR NFL PLAYOFFS:

 

— NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: COMMANDERS VS. EAGLES —

One useful tool for picking NFL winners is watching midweek line movement. This Sunday’s NFC Championship Game is a perfect example of breaking information impacting the pointspread — as it becomes more widely known to the public. The current line is up 1.5 points since the opening spread was released as Philadelphia -4.5. The Eagles are now a -6 point favorite hosting Washington. The number is staying put, for now.

This most important news item impacting the line is Eagles’ quarterback Jalen Hurts’s left knee injury. If he’s at or near 100 percent to play, expect the line to remain at -6. However, if there are indications Hurts is not close to being fully healthy at game time, this line will certainly drop, and could even move significantly. Recall, Hurts was injured on a rough tackle during last week’s victory, but didn’t miss any action. He also suffered a concussion in Week 16 that kept him out of the final two games of the regular season. The Eagles’ backup QB is Kenny Pickett, who replaced Hurts for most of the previous PHI-WAS game, in which the Eagles lost 36-33.

Right now, the Eagles are saying as little as possible about Hurts’ condition. Closer to game time, “reports” will come out. That news could impact the line. Early indications point to Hurts being the starter and playing with little or no risks. In fact, the early line shift from -4.5 to -6 reveals betting market perception that Hurts will be fine. As kickoff approaches, later in the week, any line movement towards the Commanders, the underdog, likely says much more than anything and should be factored into your decision–if you bet on this game.

Betting Angles – All Point to Philadelphia: In other developments, here are some betting angles I’ve plucked from various sources, all of which suggest fading Washington this week (credit: Covers.com):

— Away teams with 13+ wins on the season in the conference championship…..2-8 ATS, and 1-9 SU
— Away conference championship teams coming off an underdog win….5-8 ATS, and 4-9 SU
— Conference championship road dogs that have the greater points/game margin than their present opponent….3-7 ATS, and 3-7 SU
— Interesting trend–all teams after playing Detroit the last two seasons have gone 11-22-1 ATS, and 14-20 SU. Away dogs after playing the Lions the past two years…..1-5-1 ATS, and 1-6 SU

[From these angles, I take it that teams that have exceeded expectations and come off a big upset win can’t maintain the momentum in the next game. Playing Detroit and trying to slow down the Lions offense also takes a tough toll in the following game.]

Full Disclosure: I’m not betting on this game so far as a side because I already have a sizable future wager on the Eagles to win the NFC Championship. When handicapping, we must try to remain as impartial as possible, though that’s not really possible for anyone because we all carry biases. However, I will share these thoughts and offer picks based on some props:

Moneyline–Washington +240….worth a flyer?: My initial reaction…..this number looks too high. A solid argument can be made that the Commanders have played better over the past five weeks than the Eagles and since their previous meeting. Certainly, Washington’s offense has been far more consistent, both in yardage and points scored. On the other hand, Philadelphia has performed much better defensively. At most, I’d make this moneyline somewhere around WAS +180. As previously noted, I always have a big bet on Philadelphia to win, but Washington looks like an exceptional value priced at +240 if I was capping this game independent of other wagering and rooting interest.

Washington +6 looks like an ideal spread to balance action: I wouldn’t touch this line, as is, but definitely would advise jumping on the Commanders plus the points if there’s any indication QB Hurts is struggling this week in practice and/or has lost any mobility. If Hurts can’t run the ball effectively, the Eagles’ aren’t quite the same threat on offense and the Commanders defense can focus more on stopping or slowing down RB Barkley, assuming that’s possible. If Hurts is near 100 percent, the Eagles might be worth playing, especially at -6 or less. One concern for the Commanders this week is playing a 4th straight road game. That’s a grueling schedule to overcome for any team. Meanwhile, the Eagles are playing their fifth straight home game, which also seems like a huge advantage. Though data is scarce, road dogs on their 4th-straight away game are 1-5-1 ATS and 0-7 SU the past 20 seasons.

Game Total….O/U: 47.5: This number could change based on weather, though I’m not sure conditions really matter much. Last week, I touted the UNDER and got hammered when the Eagles-Rams game lit up the scoreboard for 50 points in a heavy snow storm. Unless it’s very windy, I doubt weather will be much of a factor. However, we have seen the Eagles win in freezing conditions. The Commanders have yet to play any game in adverse conditions. We really don’t know what to expect from them in such conditions. After getting burned on several UNDERs late in the season, my lean is OVER this number. The NFL wants higher scoring games, and that has to be baked into any decision.

Player Prop–Jayden Daniels O/U 32.5 pass attempts: Given WAS QB Daniels’ passing stats during their current winning streak, OVER 32.5 pass attempts looks like one of the best player props on the board. Look at Daniels’ number pass attempts since returning from a brief injury in early Nov. — 31-35-36-39-31-30-38-32-34 (I’m disregarding the final game of the season in which Daniels played only a few series). All of these numbers are around or above the target, and since Washington won all of the most recent games, that also reduced the number of attempts late in the game. Keep in mind that QBs on teams leading in the game tend to not throw many passes in the final few series, opting for the run. If we assume from the spread Washington will be trailing in the 4th quarter, the OVER on attempts looks even stronger. Hence, Daniels is likely to pass roughly the same number of times (averaging out to 34 attempts per game), plus whatever passing might happen late in the 4Q. Last week, Rams’ QB Stafford attempted 44 passes and the offense moved the ball effectively during much of the game. I doubt if Daniels reaches that number, but its an indication of what to expect with Daniels and the game plan.

Player Prop–Jake Elliot O/U 6.5 points: Eagles placekicker Elliot has been ripped for his inexplicable extra point misses in the postseason (3 misses, so far). That now gives us some value on a prop that otherwise might be listed at 7.5 (given PHI scoring and the spread in this game, 7.5 would be the standard kicker point total). I foresee Elliot getting back to normal this week. He missed just one XP all season. Elliot has also been perfect on FGs, going 6/6 in the postseason. So, it’s doubtful any trust will be lost in his abilities. The Eagles’ put forth a strange explanation for Elliot’s XP misses, which almost cost them in the Rams’ game, pointing out they came after RB Barkley scored on long TD runs, and Elliot wasn’t sufficiently warmed up. I know this excuse seems absurd, but I also doubt that will happen again. Elliot doesn’t rank among the best kickers in the league, but he’s also not as bad as public perception is making this to be. I expect the Eagles to score points and Elliot to get enough attempts to reach the 7+ on his point total. Note the lay price is -130 on the OVER.

First Quarter Spread — PHI -1.5: Midway through the season, I started fading the Eagles in the 1Q. Even though they were winning games, Philadelphia started virtually all of its games slowly. There was even a streak when the Eagles failed to score a 1Q touchdown for several weeks in a row. Few bettors caught onto this oddity, as PHI was almost always laying points, despite ranking near the bottom in 1Q productivity. However, these slow starts have now been fixed as the Eagles have led in 4 of last 5 games after the 1H–and were tied in the other. Now, it’s Washington that’s the slow-starting team. Even though the Commanders are enjoying a win streak, they’ve trailed in 4 of last 5 games–and were tied in the other. Strange how these teams have completely reversed the way they approach the early part of games. No team intends to start slowly, but there is an element of game planning in the 1Q very different from later in the game, and some teams are simply hot or cold coming out of the locker room. This all leads me to lean on PHI starting strongly again at home, laying -1.5. The moneyline price at -185 is too high on the Eagles, but I’ll go with Philadelphia to score on at least one early drive and take the first frame.

Run, Barkley Run! — Adding: PHI RB Barkley OVER 23.5 on longest rush (-135): Betting Barkley props is tricky because anything wager on the OVERs comes at an inflated number. Everyone knows Barkley is a beast and is going to get the ball, evidenced by a crazy high rushing yardage O/U which is currently 130.5 and listed at 24.5 attempts. Perhaps there’s some value in fading these numbers inflated by public sentiment, but I can’t go against him the way he’s performing. Where some value does appear to exist is in the longest rush by Barkley, which is a very betable 23.5. So, we need just one long run of 24+ yards to cash a winning ticket. Barkley broke two 70+ runs last week. Now, he faces the Commanders defense ranking #32 (dead last) in a subcategory called “yards after initial contact.” Translation: Barkley is an excellent tackle breaker. Also note that Barkley rushed for 146-150 yards against Washington already this season, which included two breakaways of 39 and 68 yards. This number looks a little low at just 23.5, even with the high vig.

Game Prediction: Philadelphia 30, Washington 20

Once again, here are the picks for this game:
Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 32.5 pass attempts (-115)
Player Prop: PHI PK Jake Elliot OVER 6.5 points (-130)
Player Prop: PHI RB Barkely OVER 23.5 on longest rush (-135)
First-Quarter Side: Philadelphia -1.5

 

Note: The other playoff game analysis and picks should be up shortly–click on links to read full report.

 

FINAL PICKS:

Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 32.5 pass attempts (-115)

Player Prop: PHI PK Jake Elliot OVER 6.5 points (-130)

Player Prop: PHI RB Barkley OVER 23.5 on longest rush (-135)

First-Quarter Side: Philadelphia -1.5

Full-Game Side: Kansas City -2

Moneyline: Kansas City -125

Player Prop: KC RB Hunt OVER 34.5 rushing yards

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.

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