2020 NFL Picks: Week #12 (Sunday Wagers)

It’s been an outstanding run during the last four weeks.  Thursday’s wagers went a perfect 4-0, which now puts me significantly ahead for the season.

I’m particularly proud of the turnaround because September and October were terrible months.  Let’s face it.  The NFL is tough enough to predict under “normal” circumstances, but add the unique challenges of the current pandemic and all the associated activities which are impacted, and randomness appears to be even more prevalent.

There remains a very long way to go until the end of the current football season.  However, my shift away from sides and traditional analysis, largely based on motivation and situations to first-quarters, first-halves, second-halves, and team totals has produced some extraordinary results.  With about 75 plays during the last three weeks, these picks have hit about 66 percent.  Overall this 2020 season, all of my plays combined are hitting 57 percent.  With 144 wagers recorded, thus far, that’s stellar.  I’m also getting a little luckier than I should.  But these results are very encouraging.

This leads me to work more on the reasons for success.  Note that my biggest contribution to sports gambling and the science of football handicapping happened 20 years ago when I came up with SECOND HALF BETTING ANGLES, which were widely copied and posted and became a fixture in the sports wagering lexicon.  I think I may have discovered something similar here in terms of potential.  If these quarters’ wagers continue at the current success rate, I’ll try to data-mine more years of results and sometime in the future release a similar guide for FIRST QUARTER WAGERING.  Excuse me for bragging, but I’ve put lots of work into this, and no one has any idea of all the angles that look good early and then fall apart (for every angle that works, 99 do not — and then win percentages usually fade as bettors catch on the numbers adjust).  So, it’s a thrill to dig and dig and dig, and then (possibly) strike gold.

See Week #12 picks below, which are mostly a continuation of quarters, halves, and team totals.  Also, note that I do post a few SECOND HALF plays onto my Facebook account, which are recorded (and easy to see in advance).

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2020 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Wins — Losses — Pushes     82 — 62 — 2

Starting Bankroll:     $10,000.

Current Bankroll:     $11,841.

Best Bets:     5 — 7 — 0 (- $1,175.)

Last Week’s Results:     + $1,340.

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THIS WEEK’S WAGERS:  13 plays

(Sunday plays only)

No Best Bets this week, which are faring poorly.  So, I’m now flat betting all the wagers.

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San Francisco 49ers Team Total  OVER 8½ (-115) — First Half  Risking $230.00 / to win $200.00

1st Quarter  o6½ (-130) Risking $260.00 to win $200.00 

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Atlanta Falcons  Team Total
1st Quarter   OVER 6½ (+102)  Risking $200.00 to win $204.00

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Arizona Cardinals/New England Patriots
1st Quarter  OVER  9½ (-130)  Risking $260.00 to win $200.00 

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Cincinnati Bengals  Team Total
1st Quarter   OVER ½ (-130)   Risking $260.00 to win $200.00 

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Jacksonville Jaguars  Team Total
1st Quarter   OVER ½ (-140) Risking $280.00 to win $200.00 

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Cleveland Browns/Jacksonville Jaguars
1st Quarter   OVER 9½ (-125)   Risking $250.00  to win $200.00 

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New York   Jets  Team Total
1st Quarter  OVER ½ (-125)   Risking $250.00 to win $200.00 

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Miami Dolphins/New York Jets
1st Quarter   OVER 7½ (-115)  Risking $230.00 to win $200.00 

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San Francisco 49ers  Team Total
1st Quarter  OVER ½ (-120)  Risking $240.00 to win $200.00 

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San Francisco 49ers/Los Angeles Rams
1st Quarter  OVER 9½ (-125)   Risking $250.00 to win $200.00 

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Chicago Bears Team Total
1st Quarter  OVER ½ (-120)  Risking $240.00 to win $200.00

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Chicago Bears/Green Bay Packers
1st Quarter OVER 7½ (-110)  Risking $220.00 to win $200.00