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Posted by on Jan 18, 2020 in Blog | 0 comments

2019-2020 NFL Season: Conference Championship Games Picks

 

conference championship games

 

Read my analysis of both conference championship games at onlinegambling.com.

Here are the links:

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:  GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:  TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY

 

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2019 NFL WAGERING RECORD

Wins — Losses — Pushes          79 — 67 — 3

Starting Bankroll:   $ 8,398.

Current Bankroll:   $9,466.  (+ $1,068.)

Last Week’s Results (Week #20):         1 — 4 — 0  (- $850.)

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THIS WEEK’S WAGERS 

This week, I made THREE wagers.  I’m wagering $917.50 to win $750.  Here are my thoughts:

TENNESSEE at KANSAS CITY (-7) — Total 53

Andy Reid-coached teams have a history of folding at this stage of the playoffs. However, this appears to be his most talented team. Certainly, the Chiefs field an explosive offense, which as was proven last week, can put up lots of points quickly. Kansas City stunned just about everyone by overcoming a 24-0 deficit en route to a convincing 51-31 win. They are rightly favored big in this game. However, Tennessee might be the worst possible opponent for the Chiefs in this spot. The red-hot Titans have pulled off three straight road wins, all versus division winners.

The Titans’ defense has been suffocating, holding the Texans, Patriots, and Ravens respectively to 14 points or less each time. The big question is — can the Titans’ power running attack do it one more time? If RB Derrick Henry runs anything like he’s done in the last two months, that does more than help Tennessee move the ball. More important perhaps, success at running the ball keeps the Chiefs’ offense on the sidelines. Tennessee has proven itself capable of upsetting solid teams. They’ve also defeated Kanas City earlier this season and beat Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium in a playoff game two years ago.

While there’s been considerable change in personnel since then, Tennesee looks like a very attractive underdog getting plus-7. At plus-7.5, they are absolutely worth a wager.  But I can’t get that number, so this is a pass.

Betting this total to go over looks way too obvious. Both teams score plenty of points. Both offenses are explosive. Weather doesn’t appear to be a major factor although temperatures will be cold (20 degrees at game time). Temperatures in this range have not impacted scoring, historically speaking. No wind is in the forecast. What the total doesn’t reflect, however, is the recent play of both defenses. Both units have stepped up significantly in recent games. In the seven games since the mid-season loss at Tennesee, Kansas City has posted 5 unders and just 2 overs. The defense has allowed only 16 points-per-game.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defensive numbers are equally as impressive, surrendering just 18 points-per-game over their past seven contests. The total at 53 is the highest of any Titans’ game this season. The Chiefs have seen five games with a total at 53 points or higher — producing 2 overs and 3 unders. Given this total is considerably higher than average, especially for a championship game, there are compelling reasons for contrarians (gamblers who like fading the public and popular perception) to bet under.

One other statistic worth noting: QB Tannehill has completed only 15 passes in his two playoff starts this season (both wins). This is a startling stat, especially in the modern pass-crazy NFL. The Titans’ unproven passing game with the pressure gives even more confidence to the under.

Bottom Line:  I expect Tennessee to run the ball heavily, milk the clock, and not commit costly turnovers.  This should play into a lower-scoring game than is projected.

MY WAGER: 

TENN/KC UNDER 53 — Laying $330 to win $300

 

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5) — TOTAL 46.5

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has been in plenty of big games before. He’s posted a 10-7 career playoff W-L record. For all the accolades the 49ers so rightly deserve for earning the NFC top seed, Rodgers’ experience should be weighed heavily here when picking a side. Moreover, Green Bay was held to their fewest points of the season (a trash touchdown with a 2-point conversion) in a humiliating 29-point loss at San Francisco in mid-season. We should look for a far better effort this time around.

The Packers’ defense has also carried much of the load en route to a 13-3 season. Green Bay’s defense allowed just 17 points-per-game the last six contests. This is the kind of team that’s traditionally a strong value — experienced QB, solid defense, getting points.

However, San Francisco has demonstrated its ability to completely shut down opponents and looks to be the superior unit. When the 49ers defense plays at peak level, this team looks unbeatable. Offensively, the 49ers have been explosive — eclipsing the 30-point mark in half of their games. They’ve also faced a considerably stronger schedule of opponents. The 49ers are rightly favored, but should they be laying more than a touchdown?

Several factors appear to neutralize each other when weighing the evidence. However, getting the added half-point with the underdog is a tipping point. The Packers are more than capable of winning this game outright. Getting more than a touchdown makes them a compelling team to bet on in this situation.

The total opened up at 45 and has been bet up to 46.5. Some handicappers think this total could reach 47 by kickoff. However, let’s presume the betting total is 46.5 for the purposes of discussion.

The betting public likes betting overs and these two teams could deliver points. However, both defenses are also capable of domination. If either defense flexes its muscles, the number should fall below the total.

Here are a few significant stats to look at from last week:  QB Jimmy Garopollo was just 11/19 for 131 versus Minnesota, which wasn’t impressive. He’ll have to do much better than that against Green Bay. Second, the 49ers rushed by more than a 2 to 1 margin last week, with 47 rushes and just 19 passes. Assuming a similar game plan carries over, the 49ers stressing the running attack will drain the clock and significantly help under bettors.

This is a very challenging total to handicap. No discernable edge appears to exist. It’s best to pass on the total, in my opinion.

However, Green Bay’s team total is posted at 19.5 (-125). This seems a fraction low, even with the high juice. Green Bay has scored 20-plus points in six straight games. QB Aaron Rodgers has produced 20-plus points in all 17 of his career playoff appearances. Read that again: 17-0 to the “OVER 20.” Based on history, a wager on the Packers team total to go over 19.5 is worth the risk. Note that I got burned on this wager last week with the Vikings, but the Packers are a superior team with a much better QB.

Bottom Line:  I expect Green Bay to stay with San Francisco most, if not all of the game. Rodgers can never be counted out of any playoff matchup, and it’s rare to get so many points with a veteran QB in a championship game. Give me the +7.5 and the Pack to get to 20.

MY WAGERS: 

Game Line:  GB +7.5 vs. SFO — Risking $275 to win $250

Green Bay Game Team Total Over 19.5 (-125) — Risking $312.50 to win $250.

 

 

INVESTMENT GROUP [37 persons Active]

Investor  —- Amount —- Pct. of Total Fund
Heldar $ 211 2.51%
Watanabe $ 100 1.19%
Peter Lucier $ 1,000 11.91%
Kramer $ 302 3.60%
Finbar O’Mahoney $ 200 2.38%
Howler $ 100 1.19%
Linda Keenan $ 500 5.95%
John Pickels $ 100 1.19%
Patrick Kirwan $ 100 1.19%
Sean McGinnis $ 300 3.57%
Jim Anderson $ 252 3.00%
Chad Holloway $ 200 2.38%
Eric Schneller $ 500 5.95%
Randy Collack $ 351 4.18%
Dave Lawful $ 100 1.19%
Paul Harris $ 1,000 11.91%
Dan Goldman $ 51 0.61%
Sharon Goldman $ 51 0.61%
Ken QB $ 102 1.21%
Chuck Weinstock $ 102 1.21%
Peter Taki Caldes $ 102 1.21%
Kenny Shei $ 51 0.61%
Jeff Deitch $ 51 0.61%
Kevin Un $ 128 1.52%
Becca Kerl $ 22 0.26%
Corey Imsdahl $ 102 1.21%
Don Bingo Rieck $ 102 1.21%
Jeff Siegel $ 1,000 11.91%
Stephen Cohen (payment pending) $ 100 1.19%
John Reed $ 114 1.36%
George Wattman $ 51 0.61%
Mickdog Patterson $ 51 0.61%
Larry Lubliner $ 100 1.19%
Grizz Berentsen $ 100 1.19%
Edmund Hack $ 100 1.19%
Bob Feduniak $ 500 5.95%
David “Quick” Horowitz $ 102 1.21%
TOTAL $ 8,398 100.00%

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