2016 NFL Regular Season: Week #9

When the glorious history of football handicapping someday gets written, I’m expecting a platitude of praise for my greatest contribution to sports wagering science — the teaser wheel.

They laughed at Aristotle.  They laughed at Pathagaras.  They laughed at all the greats.  For it is they and they alone who dared to think outside the box of conventional wisdom.  They challenged the basic assumptions of their times and even threatened the establishment with their ideas.  So it is also with my teaser wheel.

Last week, I was down to my final out, and last dollar.  So, I no other choice but to dust off “old faithful,” which spewed a big profit.  I nearly doubled my bankroll in a single day.  Like I said, there should be statues commissioned for what I’m doing for NFL bettors.  Here’s the game-by-game breakdown:

Won $3,180 last week.  Bankroll currently at $6,630:

CLEV +8.5 with WASH +9 [BEST BET] — won

CLEV +8.5 with GB +9 — won

CLEV +8.5 with NOR +8 — won

CLEV +8.5 with DET +7.5 [BEST BET] — won

CLEV +8.5 with OAK +7 — won

CLEV +8.5 with NWE (pick) — won

CLEV +8.5 with BUF + 12 — lost

CLEV +8.5 with IND +9 [BEST BET] — won

CLEV +8.5 with SDI +10 — won

This now brings me to NFL Week #9.  Which team should be the spoke in the teaser wheel?

Two teams immediately jumped out as prospects.

Dallas would have been ideal as the spoke.  It seems natural to pick the 6-1 team playing against the winless 0-7 team, especially since all that’s required is for Dallas to win the game on the teaser (teased down from -7.5 to -1.5).  However, this looks like a trap game for the Cowboys who could be caught flat going against a non-conference opponent off a big home won versus Philadelphia last week.  Meanwhile, Cleveland is at home for the second consecutive week and continues to play hard, despite their record.  Given all their challenges, I’m amazed at how the Browns are staying competitive is just about every game.  Hue Jackson is going to turn this team around.  It will just take another year or two (and a solid QB).

So, I’m passing on taking Dallas.  I actually considered riding with the Browns again, since they covered for me last week in a last-second thriller.  However, I would be more comfortable getting +14 and the number isn’t quite there.  So, the Dallas/Cleveland game will be secondary, but not primary as part of the teaser wheel strategy.

The other team that jumped out at me was Kansas City, which is more of a wager against their opponent.  Jacksonville looks to be a solid fade right now.  The Jaguars are 13-42 (straight up) under Gus Bradley, who appears to be a loss away from finally getting fired.  Jacksonville has repeatedly stunk on the road and faces a tough spot here with the Chiefs very much in the division race.  I like the fact that Nick Foles is also starting for Kansas City, which might be an improvement over Alex Smith.

This game is a sharp-square divide.  The sharps will get cute and bet the dog.  The public loves Kansas City.  But this is a spot where the smart handicappers are overthinking the equation.  Asking a bad team to cover for you is always risky, and while I would never lay more than a touchdown with the Chiefs, asking them simply to win the game isn’t too much to ask against an opponent that might have given up on this coaching staff.

Kansas City gets teased from -7 down to -1.  The Chiefs are wheeled with the following:

Risking $510 on each play to win back $464:

KC -1 / DET +12

KC -1 / MINNE (pick)

KC -1 / PHILA +9

KC -1 / DALL -1.5

KC -1 / CLEVE +13.5

KC -1 / NYJ +10

KC -1 / BALT +9

KC -1 / LA +9

KC -1 / GB -1

KC -1 / INDY +13

KC -1 / TENN +11

KC -1 / BUFF +13

KC -1 / SEA -1

Money time!