2016 NFL Regular Season: Week #4

NFL Week #5 looks to offer the best overall wagering opportunities that I’ve seen in quite a while.  I count more than a dozen playable situations — even more if you want to really get aggressive and bet added options like first-halves, teasers, and so forth.  Accordingly, I’m loading up on several wagers for Sunday and Monday.  Read my full write up below for the reasons I’m going heavy on some games and also passing on others.  Every NFL game receives some treatment.

Before examining this weeks plays, however, first I’ll share one interesting tidbit of research I performed.

As a contrarian, I look for betting situations to go again prevailing opinion.  I like to fade the popular perception of teams, especially sportscasters and pundits.  Accordingly, that means making some wagers that some might consider outrageous.

I thought it might be profitable to wager on all the 0-3 teams and wager against all the 3-0 teams.  The reasoning seems pretty clear.  The winless teams are desperate and often getting more points now that they’ve disappointed bettors and fans.  Conversely, the undefeated teams would appear to be good fades.  These 3-0 teams are likely to be overvalued in some spots.  Moreover, it might seem that a sense of complacency might set in with the good teams.

Unfortunately, my data mining doesn’t reveal contrarian methodology to be profitable — at least not in Week #4.

I went back and logged ten years of NFL data (2005-2015) and found 47 situations where teams were 0-3.  These teams essentially broke even in their fourth game against the line.  Betting all the 0-3 teams produced 24 wins and 23 losses.  Hence, there appears to be no value in wagering on the bad teams, at least not yet at this point in the season (they do perform much better later on, BTW — which I will write about in future weeks ahead).

I also found 48 situations where teams were a perfect 3-0.  Again, we might expect these teams to either fare poorly against the line or perhaps produce nothing statistically relevant.  While 48 trails isn’t nearly enough data, I still found the results to be surprising.  Betting on all 48 of the undefeated 3-0 teams in Week #4 would have resulted in 27 wins and 21 losses.  That’s not a huge profit (+3.9 units).  But it’s still worth noting.  One can make an argument that the 3-0 teams remain slightly undervalued by the betting market at this point in the season, based on data that goes back a decade.

This week’s 3-0 teams include the following:

New England -7 vs. Buffalo (-6.5 at Cantor Gaming)

Baltimore -3.5 vs. Oakland

Denver -3 vs. Tampa

Minnesota -4.5 vs. NY Giants

Three of these teams are at home, so I find it a bit surprising that none are big favorites.  Of course, two (and perhaps three) of these teams have  some concern at the quarterback position.  Nonetheless, one can also correctly point out these are unquestionably four of the best-coached teams in the NFL.

I’ll make a small wager on all four 3-0 teams which I believe might not be getting the full degree of respect they deserve, at least according to the data.  Hoping they all move to 4-0 — and more important — cover the spread.

________________________________________

2016 NFL SEASON RECORD

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $9,350.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  – $650.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  4 – 4 – 0 [- $925.]

LAST WEEK:  – $1,085.

________________________________________

GAMES THAT DIDN’T MAKE THE CUT:   

Some of the games I’m (probably) not betting as of right now:

— I want no absolutely part of the INDY-JAX game (okay, maybe just a sliver of a part) which is one of three games played in London this season and comes with a red-eye (US) starting time of 6 am PST.  JAX has played at least one game in London for four straight seasons and could be more used to the travel routine and stadium setting.  However, INDY is just as desperate to win.  The line at Colts -1 to -2 provides no real incentive to make a wager.  That said, I did take a nibble on the JAX teaser, moving the final number up to +8.  I don’t like what I’ve seen from these Jags coaches and players (will JAX be the first team to fire its coach — if Jags lose the game, I predict it’s just a matter of time).  However, this is more of an against play versus the struggling Colts, which look to be vulnerable to defeat in every game and resemble nothing of the playoff contender from a few years ago.  Aside from star QB Luck, there’s very little to like about this team.  So, I’ll tease against them figuring an INDY victory would probably be by a touchdown, or less.

— Browns HC Hue Jackson might deserve some kind of award for how he’s kept the Browns competitive in their last two games, despite just about everything going wrong with his best players.  He’s lost two starters and now is faced with a third-string QB, an offense running wildcat schemes resorting to trickery, has the weekly distraction of WR Josh Gordon who is taking leave of absence from team, desperately plucked a bad kicker off the waiver wire who missed a game winner last week, and remains stuck with a porous defense with no real play makers.  Still, despite all this, the Browns have fought hard the last two weeks and are 2-1 ATS.  I like what I’m seeing in Cleveland, but this looks to be a week where I want no piece of them.  Washington comes off big win and now seeks its first home victory of the season.  Redskins feasted on bad teams last season and CLEVE in its second straight road game qualifies.  I think the deflated Browns will defeat themselves in this game and it could turn into a blowout.  But, not enough confidence in Washington to lead me to trigger a wager laying more than a touchdown.

— Dallas is laying less than a field goal at San Francisco.  QB Prescott continues to show maturity way beyond his experience and improves with each game.  However, DAL offense will now be without main target WR Dez Bryant for this game.  Looks to be a pass no bet, especially since 49ers HC Chip Kelly knows DAL from his three years in PHILA.  I don’t see much value either way based on this line, so I’ll look to invest somewhere else.  Under is probably worth a serious look since DAL will rely heavily on short passes and force feed RB E. Elliott who should easily get 20 carries.  DAL defense has also played well enough to justify an UNDER 44.5 wager.  Totals bets TBD near game time.

— Kansas City is probably a solid choice getting generous points at Pittsburgh, and could win this game outright.  Hard to figure the lack of heart and poor effort from Steelers last week.  Was that an aberration or a more telling sign that this team might not be as good as thought?  Chiefs are formidable opponent and HC Andy Reid has proven to be a solid road coach going 18-11 ATS as a visitor.  However, Pittsburgh is always dangerous at home with added incentive, and I can’t think of a bigger incentive than getting humiliated by 30 points last week playing cross-state rivals with a new head coach and a rookie QB.  They also get RB Bell back this week after suspension. which could spark better overall team performance.

THIS WEEK’S BETS:  Wagers I made….

TEASER:  ARIZONA -2 with NY JETS +8 — Risking $880 to win $800 [BEST BET]

Obviously, the numbers are at work here.  We tease down the much better home team (ARZ) to less than a FG along with another motivated home team (NYJ) getting more than a TD.  Lots of factors at work:  ARZ comes off embarrassing road loss and suddenly finds themselves in an early season hole, which can be solved with a victory here.  They bounced back nicely last time in Week #2 versus Tampa, and now face a team that won’t take lightly since the LAR are suddenly contending in the West.  LAR broke the offensive funk last week.  But now in another tough road spot, I’m not confident they have enough in the tank to defeat a very motivated Cardinals team that will be eager to rebound from the defeat in Buffalo.  ARZ is 16-6 ATS last several seasons off a point spread loss.  As for NY Jets, a similar situation coming off a turnover-plagued humiliation on the road the previous week.  Fortunately, NYJ get to face SEA in a weak spot and when they’re vulnerable, also having to travel East (probably factored into line).  QB Wilson with ankle issues and mobility concerns also not a full strength and protected by a weak OL what will be severely tested by a Jets defense that actually ranks pretty good despite the 1-2 record.  Getting generous points with a team needing the win at home looks to be the play.  Some concern about NYJ receiver corps which might not be at full strength.  However, in what should be a close and low-scoring game (total lined at around 40), the +8 teased points become a premium.

TEASER:  ARIZONA -2 with JACKSONVILLE +8 — Risking $330 to win $300

(See notes about ARZ above.)  Regarding JAX, I’ve just about given up on believing in HC Gus Bradley who is now 5-16 straight up dating back to start of last season.  After that loss at SDI two weeks ago, he has to be on the hot seat now.  Tough to justify any wager on these money killers based on being outcoached and outplayed in each game this season.  They aren’t getting nearly enough points, it would seem.  Still, most of the JAX players have done this London routine before, so that could be an advantage.  Also, the thick grass and soft damp field should help JAX which plays on natural surface.  INDY has looked dreadful most of the way, thus far.  I’ll gladly fade this team that should probably be 0-3 at the moment, especially getting more than a TD.  The high total is a concern, which means it’s more likely to see one team cover a high spread.  Still, I’ll fire away because I can’t help myself when I see value.

NEW ENGLAND -6.5 vs. BUFFALO — Risking $220 to win $200

Lots of wiseguys are on Buffalo this week, which is getting a TD in many sports books.  Still, I’m reminded of something I heard from someone last week while watching his money go down in flames when he bet against New England.  “Fuck it — I’m not betting against Bill Belichick again.”  That’s probably some really good advice.  Logic says to bet the dog and take the points here with Patriots basically starting a garbage collector at QB.  But I’ll stick with the Patriots on a massive roll and take the perfect 3-0 team which has shown to be profitable historically speaking.  Have to believe just like other weeks — this about a team stepping up big time when the leader is in exile.  

NY JETS +2 vs. SEATTLE — Risking $330 to win $300

FIRST HALF:  NY JETS +1 — Risking $220 to win $200

See write up above about playing on NYJ in the teaser, getting +8.  Will also play them in game and first half.  SEA OL and injury to Wilson has to make the NYJ very live here, especially coming off the bad loss.  Wilson’s mobility a concern should make the Seahawks into dogs, in my opinion.  That Jets defensive front should be tee-ing off on every play.  Huge game for Jets, not so for the Seahawks who can lose and still end up 2-2 and be right there in the thick of the race in the West.

CAROLINA -3 vs. ATLANTA — Risking $330 to win $300

Some compelling reasons to play the division home dog.  However, I’m going with my gut instinct that tells me ATL will struggle in this game when they are now expected to be a serious contender.  Last two weeks on road with pressure off, they played their best games.  Now, pressure back on against division rival that won’t be taking opponent lightly since CAR lost here last season.  ATL also got to enjoy practice against two horrid defenses (OAK and NOR rank 31st and 32nd in the NFL — which can make any QB look good).  This time, they step in class and play by far their toughest opponent of the season.  Laying -3 with a motivated visitor seems reasonable.

TENNESSEE +4.5 vs. HOUSTON — Risking $330 to win $300

FIRST HALF:  TENNESSEE +3 — Risking $220 to win $200

HOU was xposed as a gutless fraud last week.  Sure, HOU did play well in first two games at home.  But now with its best defensive player out for the season (JJ Watt injured), that could be a big blow to the team.  TENN is surely hard to figure out, but in all fairness they suffered some terrible play calls last week on the OAK game (three calls were controversial in the final minute — all went against TENN).  I still don’t like what I’m seeing from QB Mariota and the weak Titans offense which seems to struggle in big games like this.  But after what we saw in NWE last week, it’s obvious HOU is a team lacking in many areas, which could be exposed by the road team that must see this as a winnable game.  HC O’Brian is also reportedly taking over the play-calling duties from OC this week, which shows some panic in Houston.  TEN did play its best game on the road two weeks ago.  Should be close, so I will take the FG in first half and +4 for the game.

BALTIMORE -3.5 vs. OAKLAND — Risking 220 to win $200

This is not a play I would normally make, particularly with an offense that’s been struggling.  But I’m going with the trend that says a 3-0 team isn’t getting enough respect here.  BALT also a total mismatch advantage so far as defenses go.  Sooner or later, QB Flacco and the Ravens offense will enjoy a breakout game, and this week could be the merry occasion.  Tempting to play the OVER as well, getting the added bonus to two outstanding long-range placekickers, which alone might be worth an extra 3-4 points on the total.

DENVER -3 vs. TAMPA BAY — Risking $220 to win $200

Again, I’m playing the angle to bet on 3-0 teams in their next game, which has been profitable.  Also, really miffed at the way Tampa has played the last two weeks.  The LAR loss was mind-boggling.  Give me a far superior defense which might completely shut down the Bucs.

NEW ORLEANS +4 vs. SAN DIEGO — Risking $550 to win $500 [BEST BET]

FIRST HALF:  NEW ORLEANS +3 — Risking $220 to win $200

Hard to bet on Saints given their dreadful performance dating back all the way to last season (0-4 in preseason and 0-3 in regular season).  Defensive woes are well-documented.  Still, NOR in much better spot this week, playing versus banged up Chargers which have looked very good for first three weeks but might not be quite as good as a team that is worth laying the key number of -4 in any game.  Should be close.  Give me the FG in the first half as a nice bonus and the generous +4 for the game.  Also, NOR historically good as a dog — 9-4 ATS while SDI is just 3-10 as a favorite in recent years.  

FIRST HALF:  KANSAS CITY +3 vs. PITTSBURGH — Risking $220 to win $200

Late added wager.  In what should be a close game, I’ll take the FG in the first half.

MINNESOTA -4.5 vs. NY GIANTS — Risking $220 to win $200

Taking home team laying a reasonable number.  I was high on the NYG coming into the season, but the more I see QB Manning and turning the ball over in key moments combined with the inconsistency of the offense, the more comfortable I feel fading this team.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:  5 winners / 6 losers / 1 push  (-$1,085)

BALTIMORE (PICK) vs. JACKSONVILLE (-110) — Risking $550 to win $500 [BEST BET]…..winner

MONEY LINE:  PITTSBURGH vs. PHILADELPHIA (-185) — Risking $925 to win $500 [BEST BET]…..lost

TENNESSEE +1.5 vs. OAKLAND (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300…..lost

TAMPA BAY -3.5 vs. LOS ANGELES — Risking $330 to win $300…..lost

OAKLAND / TENNESSEE UNDER 47 — Risking $330 to win $300…..winner

CLEVELAND / MIAMI UNDER 42.5 — Risking $330 to win $300…..lost

NY JETS / KANSAS CITY UNDER 43 — Risking $440 to win $400…..winner

NEW ORLEANS -2.5 vs. ATLANTA (-110) — Risking $550 to win $500 [BEST BET]…..lost

DENVER +3.5 vs. CINCINNATI (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200…..winner

DETROIT +7 vs. GREEN BAY (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200…..push

CLEVELAND +10 vs. MIAMI (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200…..winner

ARIZONA -2.5 vs. BUFFALO (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200…..lost