2016 NFL Regular Season: Week 3 Comments

NOLAN DALLA — 2016 NFL SEASON RECORD

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $10,445.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  +  $445.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  3 – 2 – 0 [+ $50.]

LAST WEEK:  – $415.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:  3 winners / 4 losers  (-$415)   It was an losing week following the solid opener in Week #1.  Still, I’m slightly ahead for the regular season ( +4.4 percent ROI) going into Week #3.  That won’t win any awards, but it does provide some confidence moving forward.  Here’s the carnage from the previous week, headlined by a disgraceful effort put forth by Jacksonville, which got absolutely rolled at San Diego as +3 dogs.  I’ve now reversed my opinion on this team.  They are going nowhere.  They hype was bullshit.  The Jaguars are frauds.  Lesson learned — when a team has buried you, then stop digging.

TENNESSEE +7 (-120) vs. DETROIT:  Risking $360 to win $300 [Best Bet]…..winner

MONEY LINE:  NEW ENGLAND -250 vs. MIAMI:  Risking $500 to win $200…..winner

LOS ANGELES +7 (-115) vs. SEATTLE:  Risking $230 to win $200…..winner

JACKSONVILLE +3 (EVEN) vs. SAN DIEGO:  Risking $300 to win $300  [Best Bet]…..lost

FIRST HALF–INDIANAPOLIS + 3.5 (-110) vs. DENVER:  Risking $275 to win $250…..lost

GREEN BAY -2 (-110) vs. MINNESOTA:  Risking $220 to win $200…..lost

CHICAGO -3 vs. PHILADELPHIA:  Risking $220 to win $200….lost

RANDOM THOUGHTS:   Here are my thoughts about a few popular betting angles floating around the Internet, which are basically worthless.

Many bettors mistakenly believe that betting on 0-2 teams is profitable.  The actual results don’t reveal any significant edge to taking “circle the wagon” teams in desperate must-win situations.  Similarly, there’s nothing to be gained either from betting against “fat and happy” 2-0 teams in Week #3.  These are essentially bogus betting angles with no predictive value based on ATS results dating back ten seasons.

What I did find interesting — and I’m sharing it for the first time since I have not seen these numbers posted anywhere else before I did the tracking myself — is the notion of betting contrarian on teams coming off early extended home stands and road trips.  Conventional wisdom goes that teams that have played the first two games at home and then go on the road will have trouble, which means them not covering.  Conversely, teams that have been on the road in Week #1 and Week #2 are thought to enjoy a homecoming situation and therefore would seem to be solid bets on the NFL season home opener.

Surprise — both of these notions are demonstrably FALSE.

Again, I did the research on my own since it’s not published anywhere else.  I went back ten years and took every single situation where teams had played the first two games at home and on the road, then were slated to play the following game on the road and at home (respectively).  Again, the theory goes that teams will revert to an opposite degree of performance when making the bold venue switch, which turns out to be bogus.

Consider these numbers:

Since 2006, 28 teams have played their first two games at home, followed by a road game in Week #3.  Conventional wisdom says to bet against them.  Seems logical.  The comforts of home are being replaced by an airplane ride and a visit to a hostile arena.  However, these visitors surprisingly do show a profit, going 16-12 against the spread in this situation.  Those probably aren’t strong enough figures to bet on blindly (Houston shit the bed in that spot on Thursday night).  However, they do merit at least some consideration and tend to refute the notion that first-time visitors in Week #3 will struggle, when that turns out NOT to be the case.

That said, here’s what really surprised me:  After mining the data on the teams that come home after being on the road the first two weeks, the results look to be counter-intuitive.  Again, one might expect these teams to be pumped up for the home opener.  Yet, I ran all the numbers and they are dreadful for the home teams in Week #3.  These teams when bet blindly have gone a horrific 8-20 against the spread.  Random?  Perhaps.  Then, maybe there’s an explanation.  Perhaps the grind of playing two straight road games to open the season is too much for some teams.  It also usually means these teams are in a hole (this week, Miami certainly qualifies).  These numbers show that “home opener” angles in Week #3 shouldn’t just be discounted.  They should be FADED.  That’s precisely what I intend to do in Week #3.

This week, we have the following teams at home after playing their first two games on the road:

Cincinnati -3.5 (bet Denver)

Tampa -4.5 (bet Los Angeles)

Green Bay -7 (bet Detroit)

Miami -10 (bet Cleveland)

I’ll be wagering on three of these teams, Denver, Detroit, and Cleveland — each sure to be unpopular picks on Sunday.

As for first-time visitors, as previously stated, these aren’t bet-across-the-board solid.  But they do merit strong consideration.  This would make the road teams for this week, as follows:

Washington +3.5 (at NY Giants)

Denver +3.5 (at Cincinnati)

Arizona -3.5 (at Buffalo)

I’m on two of these teams this week — Denver and Arizona.

Now, some of the games I’m (probably) not betting:

— I did bet the NY Giants laying -3.5 vs. Washington.  This was bet early in week.  Line went up to -5 and is (inexplicably) down to -3.5 again.  While I did make this a play, I am not recommending it now.  Can’t understand the love for Washington, which has been badly outplayed along the line of scrimmage in both previous games.  Also, something to be said for Giants which are now winning the close games they lost last season.

— Minnesota seems like a mandatory play getting +7, especially given their stellar ATS record under Zimmer.  Still, I can’t bet this team coming off a huge emotional win.  Not yet convinced about Sam Bradford.  I realize Vikings as a great a bargain as you will see for a playoff caliber team at this stage, getting the +7.  Carolina does scare me as an explosive OVER team.  Not sure how even Minnesota can prepare game plans against Green Bay and Carolina, back to back.  That keeps me off this game.

— San Francisco plus 10 looks like the play against struggling Seahawks.  But you also have to expect a breakout game at some point and this could be the week.  Terrible spot for 49ers having to face rival coming off bitter loss, in a stadium where they have gone 0-7-1 ATS the last eight tries.

— Jets look to be the play getting +3, esp. since they could be 2-0 and the Chiefs deserve to be 0-2.  Have to like the way Fitzpatrick is gelling with offense.  The Jets are simply the better team at the moment.  Not sure why I’m passing on this game.  Just a feeling it probably comes down to a KC win by 3 or 4 and I don’t want to sweat it out.  Already bet the UNDER.

— Bears were getting +7.5 at one point mid-week, but that number is long gone.  Line down to -6.5.  Too much uncertainty with both teams to make a wager.

THIS WEEK’S BETS:  Wagers I made….

BALTIMORE (PICK) vs. JACKSONVILLE (-110) — Risking $550 to win $500 [BEST BET]

Rarely have I seen a team look so unprepared as the shit show put up by Jacksonville last week.  Falling behind 28-0 to San Diego, which had lost their best WR for the season to injury was a disgrace.  Sure, it’s advised never to get emotional after losses when betting on sports.  But that utter lack of preparation and embarrassing level of execution by Jacksonville was indicative of a fraudulent team that was not deserving of the hype it received coming into this season.  So, forget what we thought might happen with the Jags as a possible playoff contender.  They’re shit.  This miserable bunch has now lost 13 of their last 18 games straight up.  Now, they are listed as a pick ’em against a pretty good 2-0 Ravens team?  Huh?  Sure, Baltimore struggled in their first two games, especially on offense (the defense looks pretty solid).  But they also found a way to win both times.  What happens when Baltimore suddenly find its own grove?  My prediction:  They roll, especially against an outclassed opponent.  Certainly, the Jaguars offense will score points at some occasion this season.  But the defense remains a gutless unit full of holes.  Veteran QBs tend (Rodgers and Rivers so far, and now Flacco) to feast on these cats and I expect the same thing will happen again here.  Forget the hype.  If this Jags team had any heart, it would have shown up in a bounce back game last week.  I say take the better team in a pick ’em situation where we clearly have the better defense.  Note:  I hate reacting to a single week’s games.  But that Jacksonville rout last week revealed this team is headed nowhere.

MONEY LINE:  PITTSBURGH vs. PHILADELPHIA (-185) — Risking $925 to win $500 [BEST BET]

Eagles might be tempting getting +3.5 at home, but who have they played the first two weeks?  Answer:  Two terrible teams (Cleve. and Chi.).  Now, there’s a severe step up in class facing Pittsburgh which might have the best offense in the NFL at the moment.   Off the short prep week off the MNF away game, that makes Eagles’ challenge even tougher.  I’ll do something rare for me, and lay the chalk on the road.

TENNESSEE +1.5 vs. OAKLAND (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

I like what I’ve seen from Titans, so far, especially on defense.  Tennessee held Lions to 16 and Vikings to 10 (on offense), which spells improvement from the unit we’re used to seeing.  Meanwhile, Oakland’s defense has been wretched the first two weeks, which should give QB Marcus Mariota the chance for a breakout game.  Titans have to be disappointed with their previous home game where they blew the win against Vikings.  I see a team that’s prepared well each week, especially on defense, that should be primed to play its best.  Also, still not sure why the hype for the Raiders.  That letdown last week at home versus Atlanta reveals this team still has a ways to go before it should be laying points in the road.  Give me Tennessee here, as the wrong team is favored.

TAMPA BAY -3.5 vs. LOS ANGELES — Risking $330 to win $300

My betting angle says to play the Rams (see write up above).  However, I’m not sure how Los Angeles can follow up a huge win last week in the home opener versus division rival, plug go the West to East travel and play well.  Rams haven’s scored a touchdown yet this season, which is an alarm bell and almost an automatic BET AGAINST situation.  Until I see the Rams are capable of moving the ball and scoring TDs in the red zone, I’ll take an improving young Tampa on the rise.  I also throw out the Tampa loss at Arizona last week, thinking that once they feel behind, the team might have mailed in the game in preparation for this home opener.  Laying a reasonable number here against a team that has shown it can’t score points.

OAKLAND / TENNESSEE UNDER 47 — Risking $330 to win $300

I say Titans’ defense will dictate the tone in what should be a close, low-scoring game.  Total is 47 based on Raiders’ defensive woes.  But, are we really sure Tennessee is capable to running up lots of points?  Looks to be a 24-17 type of game.  Titans simply do not look like the kind of team that gets into offensive shootouts.

CLEVELAND / MIAMI UNDER 42.5 — Risking $330 to win $300

Rewind the ugly tape of the Browns opener at Philadelphia, which resulted in a 24-10 final score.  I see a similar result here.  Still, I’ll take the visitor with the generous number of points and look for an UNDER in what could be a lackluster game where at least one team has trouble scoring points.

NY JETS / KANSAS CITY UNDER 43 — Risking $440 to win $400

Two solid defenses that haven’t played their best so far in 2016.  I’m expecting a step up game by at least one of these units.  Chiefs home games have gone UNDER 15-8 last three seasons during Andy Reid era.  Jets were 5-3 in favor of the UNDER in all road games last season.  Not sure public has caught on to these figures.

NEW ORLEANS -2.5 vs. ATLANTA (-110) — Risking $550 to win $500 [BEST BET]

Saints lost their two games by a combined total of just 4 points.  A team that could be 2-0 were it not for a play or two is probably worth betting laying less than a FG on MNF, especially since opponent Atlanta is coming off an upset road win.  Obviously, the Saints are always a risky bet given their weak defense.  However, last week’s game at NY Giants gives one reason for some confidence, holding the G-Men to just 16 points.  I don’t see New Orleans struggling on offense this week (they were held to 13 points last week) — not at home, inside the dome, on MNF, and laying less than a FG.  Line should probably be -3.5 at the very least in my opinion.  I’ll list this as one of my best bets of the week.

DENVER +3.5 vs. CINCINNATI (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

DETROIT +7 vs. GREEN BAY (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

CLEVELAND +10 vs. MIAMI (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

ARIZONA -2.5 vs. BUFFALO (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

These are all purely angle plays.  I have no other reason to make these wagers other than going with the trend to bet against teams that played their first two on the road and now open at home in Week #3.  Note that Tampa also belongs on this list.  However, I have other reasons to expect Tampa will be the exception to the trend this week.  The Cardinals wager is based on the BET ON scenario of first road game, which has shown a small profit, combined with some favorable line movement (down to -2.5 from -3.5).