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Posted by on Jan 1, 2017 in Blog | 0 comments

2016 NFL Regular Season: Week #17

 

 

Today marks the end of the 2016 NFL regular season.  I’ll be cheering for 16 boring, low-scoring football games.

Give me a shitload of sacks.  Give me a bunch of fumbles and interceptions.  Give me a slew of incomplete passes.  Give me plenty holding penalties.  Give me missed field goals.  Give me down after down of one-yard-gains and a pile of dust.  Give me a heaping pile of gridiron garbage that falls UNDER the betting total.  Give me games where the stars are the punters.  I don’t want scoring.  I want grotesque ugliness on a grand scale.  For UNDER bettors, boredom is beautiful, baby.

This final NFL weekend, I’m betting every game to go UNDER the total.

I’m pounding all the UNDERs for a number of compelling reasons.  First, history indicates the final week of the regular season tends to be far more lackluster offensively than the other 16 weeks.  Second, several teams teams will start relatively weak and inexperienced backup quarterbacks on Sunday.  Third, some teams could their pull starters at some point during the games.  Fourth, offensive lines are really banged up this time of the year and in some cases play the backups more (no one wants to risk a career-ending injury in a meaningless game).  Perhaps most important — all of today’s games are inter-division matchups, which tend to be lower scoring than non-division games.  All these factors mean we get added value betting the UNDERs across the board, particularly as a contrarian anti-public wagering strategy, a strategy I’ve championed for the past 20 years (interrupted by some occasional slippage).

Last season, I posted this strategy (I was the only handicapper to tout this, to my knowledge — and still am) and went 11 wins and 4 losses.  During the last six seasons (which is as far as I went back tracking the totals), in the final week of the regular season UNDERs have gone a stellar 57-36-3.  The year-by-year breakdown is as follows:  (2015) 11-4; (2014) 11-5; (2013) 9-7; (2012) 7-8-1; (2011) 9-7; (2010) 10-5-2   Admittedly, this includes a limited number of trials.  But I do place some significance on the 60+ percent trend towards UNDERs.

I don’t believe this propensity for UNDERs is accidental nor random, as seasonal injuries have taken their toll, especially with offenses.  Also, many NFL teams could also make coaching changes in the offseason, which only adds to offenses going through the motions.  Some games could be impacted by adverse weather (although that factor sometimes favors the OVER).

I’m wagering $220 to win $200 on each of these games.  Here are the current totals as of Saturday night:

 

HOU / TENN UNDER 41

BUFF / NYJ UNDER 43.5

BAL /CINCY UNDER 41

NYG / WASH UNDER 46.5

DET / GB UNDER 50.5

JAX / INDY UNDER 49

DAL/ PHILA UNDER 44

CHI/ MINN UNDER 43.5

CAR / TB UNDER 45

PITT / CLE UNDER 42

NOR/ ATL UNDER 58

MIA / NWE UNDER 47

LA / ARZ UNDER 40.5

SDI / KC UNDER 45

SFO / SEA UNDER 43.5

OAK/ DEN UNDER 40

 

Happy New Year!

 

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2016 NFL SEASON RECORD

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $11,744.

NET GAIN/LOSS:   + $1,744.

LAST WEEK:  (7-4)  + $260.

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