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Posted by on Sep 7, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 4 comments

My NFL Picks: Week 1

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NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD

0 WINS — 0 LOSSES — 0 PUSHES —– (+/- 0.0 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $10,000.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  +/-  0.0

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  0–0–0

 

Opening weekend can be looked upon in at least two ways.

Some handicappers prefer taking a “wait and see” approach.  They view Week 1 with extreme caution.  Others not only fire away, but look at the first game(s) of the regular season as unique opportunities to exploit confusion.  While overly-cautious bettors claim there’s not enough information to make informed judgements about teams and players, that’s precisely why others insist that early season games are beatable.  After all, linesmakers are operating with the exact same uncertainties and must rely on pure speculation and market perception.

I’ve always been an aggressive early season bettor.  Based on my review of the numbers, I see no reason to change that philosophy this year.  I made 11 plays, so far.  Note that my halftime wagers will not be posted since the time frame is too short.  So, my overall W-L overall record will only reflect what I post in advance.  Be sure and check the site again Sunday AM, as I may add some late 1Q and 1H bets based on the late numbers (not everything has been released yet).

Here are my preferred picks for NFL Week 1:

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Posted by on Aug 24, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Season Win Totals (AFC)

 

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What things should you look at when studying NFL season win totals and making futures wagers?

Lots of things.  Most importantly, they include:

Coaching — This is pretty simple.  I prefer to bet on good coaches and bet against bad coaches.  I especially like to bet on good coaches coming off disappointing seasons (Tom Coughlin and Sean Peyton immediately come to mind in 2013).  Moreover, I tend to bet against teams that change coaches and install new offensive or defensive systems, which means uncertainty.  Adapting to a new coach’s (or coordinator’s) way of doing things and new system usually takes several games.  I prefer to wager on teams with proven coaches where players believe in the system.  To this day, I think many handicappers fail to realize how critical coaching is to winning.  Great coaches can (and do) win with average teams.  Great coaches sometimes make average players into great players.

Team’s Performance During the Last Half of Previous Season — A team’s previous win-loss record isn’t quite as important as a subset of games, usually the last 6-8 weeks of the season.  That’s more indicative of the direction a team is headed.  I’d much rather bet on a team that closed out the last half of the season strongly than one that faded down the stretch (Indianapolis finished strongly, as opposed to Dallas and Tampa Bay, which faded in 2012).  Naturally, the influence of injuries on team performance must also be taken into account.  A team where the star QB went out during mid-season would not necessarily be a fade.

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Posted by on Aug 21, 2013 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

NFL Season Win Totals (NFC)

 

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The NFL regular season is only a few weeks away.  As was the case last season, I’ll be handicapping the entire board each week and posting opinions here at my site.  Look for most release times to be Saturday morning.

A look back:  SEE “THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY OF THE (2012) NFL SEASON”

One of the more interesting options for football bettors is season win totals.  This is the number of regular season games each team is expected to win (16-game season).

Betting NFL season win totals has advantages and disadvantages.  The good thing about them is variance tends to be reduced over the course of the entire season.  While any team can have a good or bad single game, making individual game handicapping a real challenge, skill and talent spread over 16 games tends to not produce as many suprises.  Of course, there are always exceptions.

The disadvantage of betting NFL season win totals, especially for bettors who do not have credit lines, is tying up money for several months at a time.  If you bet a few team totals in August, a best-case scenario is you won’t be able to collect until January.  For this reason, season win totals are not as popular among recreational bettors by sheer volume of money wagered, which (arguably) makes these closing numbers much harder to beat.  This is because the sharp money has hammered the right market price into place, by now.  Hence, there’s some validity to now being “too late” to find value on season win totals.

That said, I’m going to post opinions here anyway.  Let’s begin with the NFC:  Note — Current lines are taken from OLYMPIC SPORTSBOOK as of August 20, 2013.

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