NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

 

 

 

UPDATE:

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Line: Eagles -3

If anyone would have predicted the Buccaneers would win their division and make the playoffs, you’d have thought they were crazy. Moreover, if someone told you Tampa Bay would be hosting the defending NFC champion Eagles in the playoff opener — especially after Philadelphia started out the season on a 9-1 streak, that would have seemed impossible. But so much has changed in the last two months.

Right now, Tampa Bay may be the better team of the two. This is evidenced by the collapse we’ve seen from the Eagles who have not just lost games, but also looked really bad in several situations. It’s mind boggling to watch a team change and fold so badly. For instance, even though the game had only partial meaning last week, nevertheless, Philadelphia did have a chance to win the NFC East division and as I was watching the first part of their game at the NY Giants just to see if they come out with some fire, well, that didn’t happen. The Eagles fell behind early and completely mailed in that game against a weak team. I think there could be a carry over here for a team that has not looked like a playoff team in several weeks. Take a look at those games — losing to the Giants, losing to the Cardinals, getting destroyed by the Cowboys, and losing to the Seahawks. In that stretch, Philadelphia did beat the Giants by 8 at home which was their last win. This is not a team where I want to lay points on the road.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay seems looser and always has a scoring threat so long as WR Mike Evans is healthy. QB Baker Mayfield had a horrible game a few weeks ago, but otherwise he’s a comeback player of the year candidate, with impressive stats (actually, they’re better than Jalen Hurts’ numbers). There’s also a Super Bowl loser trend (such teams usually don’t fare well the next season).  For several reasons, especially getting points at home in a playoff game, I think it’s a bet on Tampa Bay or nothing here.

Pick: Tampa Bay +3

 

Pittsburgh at Buffalo
Line: Bills -10

Last Sunday evening, when I first saw the line come out on the Bills-Steelers game, I thought there must be something wrong, or news I was missing, or it was a misprint. I mean, why is Pittsburgh getting a whopping 10 points? I didn’t care if the weather was expected to be perfect —– there’s just no way Buffalo is 10 points better than the Steelers on any field at the moment. Buffalo backers might claim their winning streak is impressive. But, is it really? The manner in which they’ve won their last three games is anything but impressive. Three weeks ago, they struggled against the miserable and deflated Chargers (failing to cover). Two weeks ago, they had trouble with the outmanned Patriots at home (again, failing to cover the spread). Then, they needed a late punt return in Miami last week in the division title game (covering, but also being down versus a Dolphins defense with numerous injuries). In none of those three games did the Buffalo Bills look like they were in synch.

To me, double digits favorite are reserved for teams on a roll, proven teams that often run up the score. That’s not Buffalo. They’re laying -10 to the Steelers who are now playing their best football of the season. I especially like them for the low-risk, smash-mouth offense that have often been characteristic of Mike Tomlin’s teams and the Steelers over the last half century. Pittsburgh also runs the ball very effectively (averaging 150 yards on the ground in the past three games). Then, when we add in the weather factor which may be more influenced by wind rather than cold or snow that’s going to kill whatever advantages the Bills enjoy throwing the ball. NOTE: This advantage would have been OVERWHELMING had the game been played on Sunday (and yes, I’m pissed off about that, too). Still, even with the 24-hour postponement, Buffalo is probably more impacted by the adverse conditions than Pittsburgh, which is equally used to cold weather games, but then relies more on the fundamentals. Indeed, this seems like a perfect recipe for a close game, if not an upset (especially if the game would have been played on Sunday as it should have been). QB Rudolph will not be asked to do much as a first-time playoff starter, and so long as the Pittsburgh defense shows up and plays as well as they’ve had in the last half of the season the score should stay within the margin.

Even before the postponement, I have no idea what bettors would thinking as the line did drop from -10 to -9. In those conditions, the line should have been more like -3 or -4. So, conditions should be somewhat better on Monday (umm, better for who?). I still like the Steelers getting double digits, no matter what field, what time, what the weather is, or who’s shoveling a foot of snow out of the stands at Rich Stadium.

Pick: Pittsburgh +10

Here’s more of my thoughts on the matter (I hate memes, but I made this one up):

 

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Green Bay at Dallas
Line: Cowboys -7

I made no bet on the Green Bay-Dallas game (side or total). I missed the boat at Packers +7.5. It’s now a flat +7. Dallas does seem to be a Jekyll-Hyde team when playing at home versus away. It’s certainly possible the Cowboys could roll to an easy 20-point victory here, especially if the offense gets clicking. If Dallas gets into the 30s, I don’t see Green Bay being able to keep pace. However, a slugfest clearly favors the underdogs. Dallas tends to blow out far-weaker teams, but then struggles against opponents with talent. Based on what we’ve seen lately from the Cowboys, it’s certainly possible this one could go down to the wire. There’s massive pressure on Dallas including the players and coaching staff. Would anyone be surprised if Mike McCarthy gets canned after this game following an upset loss? That monkey — now the size of an 800-pound Gorilla — has ridden the Cowboys backs since 1996 (due mostly to the ineptness of Jones’ ownership, especially on catastrophic personnel and coaching decisions). Dallas has NOT responded well to pressure situations, historically speaking. So, I won’t be betting them here. As to the game props I like, give me two:

— I see QB Jordan Love to throw an interception (YES) listed at -135 at one site and as high as -185 at another (there’s a small middle there, which is rare in props betting). I suspect Love will throw 40 passes, especially if the Packers are trailing. And Dallas has been opportunistic at creating turnovers, especially at home. Laying -135 is a steal. Laying -185 seems about right. So, shop that number for value.

— The other prop I like is the Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby to go OVER 5.5 points. I’ve discovered lots of great kicking props this season and their value has diminished as more bettors caught on. However, this is an outdated number which should be 6.5. So, I’ll go OVER the kicking points at 5.5 laying -125. I expect Green Bay to move the ball, stall at times, and get a few field goals, especially inside the antiseptic conditions of a dome, which is ideal for placekicking.

Picks:  Jordan Love to throw an interception–YES at-135. / Kicker Mason Crosby OVER 5.5 points .

 

LA Rams at Detroit
Line: Lions -3

I loved the Rams earlier in the week at +4 then it settled on +3 (current). I missed the opportunity to bet it as many analysts are predicting the Rams to be the dark horse team to win it all because they’re healthy at the right time, the defense is solid, and of course half the roster has Super Bowl experience. Detroit is a real Cinderella story and there’s nobody in football that doesn’t admire the turnaround of this long-suffering franchise. Dan Campbell is easily the most unpredictable coach in the game and you just never know what he’s going to do on any 4th down. At anything +3.5 or higher, it’s an easy decision to play the Rams. I still lean Rams at +3, but not enough to make a wager. Since I missed the earlier value getting more points, I’m not going to take a dead outdated number. So, this is a pass. Pick: None.

 

 

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It never ends. The NFL’s greed knows no bounds. Already the richest sporting entity on the planet by far and the dominant form of entertainment in America (nine of the top 10 rated television shows of all time are NFL games), the league’s insatiable appetite can never be satisfied. Today, for the first time in history, you will have to pay to watch an NFL playoff game. Please don’t tell me this league — the owners and certainly not the corporate office — gives a shit about the fans, because they don’t. The only fans they care about are those stupid enough to subscribe to another expensive streaming platform. If this fiasco their pulling off in the Miami-Kansas City game succeeds, watch out. They’ll keep on doing it, and we’ll all be fucked. More NFL games will be “for sale” and you’ll end up with massive monthly television bill just to watch the games. I won’t do it.

That said, one of the things I do love about this weekend’s games is the brutally cold winter weather. This is the way real football should be played, outdoors in the elements. Not on rubber carpet and fake “grass” inside a dome. Fuck that. Snow games and cold weather games are much more fun to watch. It should also be noted that outdoor teams historically are proven to be better and tougher and do win more overall (48 of 57 Super Bowl winners were outdoor teams, and a sizable majority were from cold weather cities–35 out of 57). For example, even though they haven’t won a Super Bowl, you don’t think Minnesota forfeited it’s home field advantage when they moved indoors? They haven’t even played in a Super Bowl game in 40 years since they abandoned their cold weather site and moved into a dome. Snow, cold weather, and wind gusts up to 50 mph are forecast in the Buffalo-Pittsburgh game. That’s awesome! The only thing missing will be the mud. Gee, I miss mud games.

 

 

Oh, and terrible weather is great for NFL handicappers. Shootouts in domes are impossible to handicap. I hate that shit.  Instead, give me a 13-10 outside game in the mud with two struggling offenses and good defenses, any day on my betting card. Some of these games this week should be a dream, if you prefer old fashioned smash-mouth football.

Here’s my thoughts (and wagers) on all six NFL playoff games this Wild Card weekend:

Cleveland at Houston
Browns -2.5

In the first game, I like the Browns to quite possibly to win in a blowout. There are many reasons for this. One is simply a matter of where these teams play how they got here.  The Browns arguably play in the best division in football facing Baltimore (the best team in the NFL), Pittsburgh (a playoff team), and Cincinnati (despite injuries, still a decent team), while the Texans play in one of the weakest — with Indy, Jacksonville, and Tennessee (6 games). Houston’s home playoff game was completely unexpected coming entirely due to a win last week at Indianapolis in which the Colts mismanaged the game at the end (Indy should have won and would have were it not for some terrible play calling) and then the Tennessee upset of Jacksonville. No doubt, this has been a great turnaround season for Houston, but the defense is average and we can’t be sure this offense is going to be able to put points in the board against one of the best defenses in football. Meanwhile, the Browns have been rejuvenated under QB Joe Flacco’s leadership and I’m the first to admit I was flat out wrong on him coming back to the NFL as a starter. When Flacco took over for a dormant Browns’ team that looked to be headed for last-place, I thought their season was over….and so did most NFL analysts. However, he’s playing like it’s 2012 all over again. I was also surprised to read that Flacco owns the best NFL road playoff win record in NFL history (now tied with Tom Brady for most career wins, with 7) and if he was to win this game, he would be the greatest road playoff quarterback ever. That’s an amazing stat. There’s a reason the Browns are laying points here on the road, because they’re the better team on both sides of the ball. This is been a great season for Houston (and really for both teams) but I’m going with the more talented and experienced personnel. Let’s also add an intangible that Houston was taken down to the wire last week in a tough game whereas the Browns were able to rest their starters. So, Cleveland should come in as a much fresher unit. I’ll go out on in a limb here and say the Browns win by double digits. Pick: Cleveland on the moneyline and -2.5.

 

Miami at Kansas City
Chiefs -5

Let’s just call this the “fuck the fans bowl.” In the abysmal outrage of the NFL’s ceaseless screwing-the-fans money grab known as the Miami-Kansas City playoff game, many of us won’t be able to watch it at home because we’re not going to go out of pocket to watch three hours of football when it will be on at most bars and casinos. Other than that, the biggest news here is the weather which is supposed to be a record cold temperature across the Midwest and potentially making this the coldest Kansas City Chiefs’ game of all time. Miami’s historical problems playing in cold weather are well known, but I think this comes down to a couple of other factors that clearly favor the host Chiefs. One is experience — the Chiefs have it and the Dolphins don’t….certainly, not at this level. Second, Kansas City knows how to win in their home stadium, proven by a remarkable record of success under head coach Andy Reid. Then, there’s the injuries to the Miami defense (especially at linebacker) which don’t seem to have improved this past week. I didn’t like what I saw from the Dolphins on either side of the ball in the last few weeks — especially from the offense which collapsed in the second half in the most important game of the year just six days ago, and now they’ve got to go into tough Kansas City (well rested–they didn’t play most starters last week) and operate in 0° temperatures. Moreover, the Chiefs boast a pretty good pass defense, so even if Miami QB Tagovaila is on top of his game he’s still going to have some problems. Meanwhile, for whatever reason the Chiefs do tend to play well in these bigger games and rise to the occasion after sleepwalking in some regular season games, which sometimes deflates their overall stats and record. Kansas City’s problems with the receiving corp are well known and a valid concern, but I’m not sure that will continue given the high pedigree of coaching and personnel talent. The line moved from -4 to now -5. Anything under a touchdown probably has value, but I think the better play here is the moneyline. I bet it early in the week when I saw the cold weather forecast and placed -190 on the Chiefs……it’s now up to -240. I’m not sure there’s much value at that higher number but I think it’s a choice of the Chiefs or nothing here. Pick: Kansas City (depending on numbers you can find)

 

 

UPDATE:  On postponed PIT-BUF game, moved to Monday:

This is so weak. Ridiculous to postpone an NFL game due to snow.

In BUFFALO ???????

Insane.