Getting the Last Laugh (My Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks)
Numbers don’t lie.
11 games over .500.
27 percent return on investment for the season.
Is it Christmas yet? Because I’m feeling like Santa Claus.
Unlike the frauds and phonies who sell picks and then leave you in the dust with 47 percent winners, my handicapping wisdom comes free of charge. When it comes to pro football, I bet with my balls.
That’s right. I lay it on the line. Every single week. I don’t hide behind some fake alias or cherry pick my spotty record. Everything I post is right here in black and white under my own name. And now, I’m up for the year making money for me and my friends. Like I said, Christmas comes early this year for some. Ho. Ho. Ho.
I’ll admit. It wasn’t always easy. We had to sweat a little. I fell down a few times. But I sure as shit got back up, because that’s what the champions do. Kicking ass and taking names should be the name of my biography.
Speaking of taking names….it’s been “ass jokers on parade” here all season. The Monday morning jackals suddenly have opinions about games and start posting their asses off. Funny how it’s easy to pick winners on Monday. They look. The snicker. They laugh.
Well, look who’s laughing now. Ha. Ha. Ha.
I’ve got three bets for Thanksgiving Day. If you’re smart, you’ll bet these games yourself.
See you next week — at the bank.
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD
61 WINS — 50 LOSSES — 3 PUSHES
LAST WEEK – 3 WINS — 0 LOSSES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $12,685.
NET GAIN/LOSS: plus $2,685.
BEST BETS: 9–14–1
THIS WEEK’S PLAYS:
Detroit -6.5 vs. Green Bay (-110) — $1,100 to win $1,000
Dallas -9.5 vs. Oakland (-110) — $1,100 to win $1,000
Baltimore -3 vs. Pittsburgh (Even) — $1,000 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
Comments: Thanksgiving Day home teams cover about 57 percent over the past 20 seasons. This is especially impressive since Detroit (which always hosts the early game) has been one of the league’s worst franchises during that span. Those numbers are impossible to go against, especially since it doesn’t seem to be reflected in this Thursday’s lines. My theory is — the short week of preparation is just too much of a burden to overcome for the visitor. That would be compelling enough to bet these home teams blindly, but when considering the status of the three visitors, wagering on the favorites appears even more attractive.
— Green Bay simply is not the same team without QB Rogers — understatement of the year. But what’s really striking is how badly the defense is playing while Rogers has been out with injury. Now, the Packers faces one of the league’s better offensive teams on the road. Lions come off a loss at home and should be well-prepared for a solid effort and easy cover. Line should be 7 at a minimum.
— I rarely bet on the perpetually-overrated Cowboys, but this looks to be the perfect week to back them. Dallas’ huge win at New York last week could ignite a strong late season run. Romo and offense playing well. Defense inconsistent, but faces a weak opponent here. It’s hard to see Oakland, which suffered a heartbreaking last-second home loss last week, coming into this game with much optimism. Double digit wins aren’t common for Dallas at home, but this should be one of their easiest games of the season.
— Pittsburgh is in a horrible spot, traveling the second straight week for another division game. That’s usually a bad omen, which is made worse due to short week and playing versus team with one of the NFL’s best home records. The entire world will probably take the Steelers plus the points, citing the history of close 3-point games between these two teams. But this should be Baltimore’s week. Far more of a “go against” Pittsburgh play here. This team just doesn’t look strong enough to post one back-to-back road wins, especially AT BALTIMORE.
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PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS
DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000
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NOLAN DALLA: 2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: +$3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0
