NFL Predictions and Picks: Week 18
We now enter the final week of the NFL regular season. This will be the first time any NFL team has played an 18th game, which could contribute to more reserves seeing action and sloppiness on the field. Our challenge is to determine which teams are better suited for this additional game and which teams will suffer from playing another week. Obviously, matchups and motivation are keys in handicapping. The high spreads on multiple games reflect this.
I’ve already made five bets, and will likely add a few more (scroll down below). But first, here’s a look back at Week 17.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (Lay amount/Win amount): + $470.
Philadelphia -3 vs. Washington (-130) — Risking $650 to win $500 ….. WON
Kansas City / Cincinnati OVER 49.5 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. WON
Detroit +7 vs. Seattle (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST
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2021 NFL WAGERING RECORD
71 Wins
69 Losses
2 Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $9,257.
Net Gain/Loss: -$743.
Last Week’s Results: (2-1-0) +$470.
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Nine bets this week.
SUNDAY
Detroit Lions +4 vs. Green Bay — Risking $330 to win $300
The line dropped from -11 (opener) to -4 with news that the Packers will rest most starters, or play them on a limited basis. There’s nothing on the line for Green Bay in this game, so it’s difficult to foresee a typical Packers’ performance in a meaningless game. Meanwhile, Detroit remains a solid ATS bet, despite their poor W-L record. The Lions have covered 5 of 7 games at home this season, and 6 of the last 8 games overall. Detroit is coming off a blowout loss at Seattle. But I see a better effort here in the home finale versus a rival. The head coach appears to be in no danger of being fired (yet), and Lions players have given solid efforts in many games. So, getting +4 versus the unmotivated Packers, I’ll take the home division underdog.
Indianapolis / Jacksonville UNDER 44.5 — Risking $330 to win $300
The Colts are a whopping -15.5 favorite in this game and should tear up the ground against the weak Jaguars. Jacksonville lost by 40 points last week and isn’t likely to make much of a contest of this with so much disarray in personnel and the coaching staff. However, I don’t see the Colts rolling up the score either. Wentz remains not at 100 percent and he needs to be healthy for the first round of playoff games. That means Indy is likely to grind it out and run heavily. Jags’ struggles on offense are well known so it will be necessary for Colts to produce most of the points. I don’t see them getting enough points to surpass a 44.5 total.
NY Jets / Buffalo UNDER 41 — Risking $330 to win $300
Snow is forecast in Buffalo on Sunday, which doesn’t always mean that’s bad for offenses. However, it likely helps the UNDER in this game. Barring a monumental upset by the Jets here, the Bills will win the AFC East and have virtually no shot at getting a first-round bye. Buffalo leads the NFL in the least yards allowed and NYJ shouldn’t post a threat to that top ranking. Coming off a heartbreaking defeat at home to Tampa Bay last week, the Jets’ motivation is questionable. This looks like a 31-3 type of game where the Bills completely shut down the Jets, who will be eager for the end of another disappointing season.
Tennessee / Houston UNDER 43 — Risking $330 to win $300
Note this is another mismatch. I define a mismatch as a game with a line at -10 or higher. My data shows mismatches are 57 percent UNDERs over the past decade in the later half of the season, which means you can bet them blindly and churn out a profit. I wrote an article about this HERE. Of the four UNDER plays I made this week, I like this one the least. I do fear Houston might produce enough points to crack this total. However, I’m sticking with a proven angle that I uncovered via data mining and will have faith more in the system than in my own biased perceptions about the teams.
Mixed Special 10-Point Teaser (KC/TB/TN) — Risking $650 to win $500
This is highly unusual for me, but this final week’s games are a special circumstance. I’ll take three far superior teams each with something to play for in this 3-team teaser. KC lays 10.5 at Denver, which is probably a decent wager, but teased down to a half-point, you have to love the Chiefs. Tampa won’t lose to Carolina, which is playing out the string on the season. Glad to take +2 in this mismatch. And, Tennessee should get revenge at Houston in a game that could give them the top seed in the AFC. Titans have all the motive to at least pick up with the win, so that’s the final team in the 3-way leg.
| Mixed Special Teaser (TL) (10-7) -130 (2o) 1/7/2022 12:19:51 PM | Risk | Win | Ticket # | |
| Selection 1: |
Football – NFL
[477] KC Chiefs 01/08/2022 (01:30 PM) -½ Point for the Game |
650.00 | 500.00 | 124901950 |
| Selection 2: |
Football – NFL
[462] TB Buccaneers 01/09/2022 (01:25 PM) +2 Points for the Game |
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| Selection 3: |
Football – NFL
[463] TEN Titans 01/09/2022 (10:00 AM) PK for the Game |
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FIRST HALF BETS:
Detroit Team Total OVER 9.5 First Half (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200
Chicago Team Total OVER 9.5 First Half (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200
San Francisco Team Total OVER 8.5 First Half (-150) — Risking $300 to win $200
FINAL SUMMARY OF THIS WEEK’S BETS (Lay amount/Win amount): 9 Bets
Kansas City / Denver UNDER 45 — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. LOST
Detroit Lions +4 vs. Green Bay — Risking $330 to win $300
Indianapolis / Jacksonville UNDER 44.5 — Risking $330 to win $300
NY Jets / Buffalo UNDER 41 — Risking $330 to win $300
Tennessee / Houston UNDER 43 — Risking $330 to win $300
Mixed Special 10-Point Teaser (KC/TB/TN) — Risking $650 to win $500
Detroit Team Total OVER 9.5 First Half (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200
Chicago Team Total OVER 9.5 First Half (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200
San Francisco Team Total OVER 8.5 First Half (-150) — Risking $300 to win $200
NOTE: THIS IS THE FINAL REPORT FOR WEEK 18.
