NFL Playoff Picks — Divisional Round

Last week’s posted picks split, going 3-3.

I easily won the Kansas City and Tampa Bay selections. However, I was dead wrong on Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

Two prop bets on the Green Bay-Dallas game also split, going 1-1.

This week, I’m hoping to do better than spinning wheels and losing money on the vig. It’s been a great season, and I’m hoping this success carries over into the playoffs.

This week, I’m following two betting trends.  I wrote this for a betting website and am now sharing them here, as well:

SATURDAY VS. SUNDAY: DOES ONE DAY FAVOR THE OTHER IN NFL PLAYOFF BETTING?

The answer here appears to be resounding — yes!

In the divisional round of playoff games, the day of the week does matter.

In the last 14 years, home teams in this next round of games played on Saturdays have gone 23-5 straight up. These teams, usually sizable favorites, have also gone 19-9 against-the-spread, which is good for nearly 70 percent covers.

But on Sunday games, the opposite is true. Remarkably, road teams have gone 17-19 straight up. Even thought that’s a 45 percent win trend, most of those wins were as moneyline underdogs. So, betting the Sunday dogs on the moneyline has shown a profit. Taking the points is even more profitable. These Sunday pups are a very impressive and profitable 25-11 against-the-spread in games played over the past 18 seasons!

What can possibly explain this discrepancy? Does the day of the week really matter that much? One theory is that the extra preparation and travel day is significant to the road teams, who are typically getting points — sometimes lots of points. It’s tough for any NFL team to play on the previous Sunday, and then be fully ready in a short week for their biggest game of the season. However, when given more time, these road teams actually perform far ahead of expectation. The Sunday teams also played the previous week, so they are not as rested as the Saturday home teams.

Adding one other thought:  Betting markets are NOT accounting for this extra day. The divisional round is looked at as one weekend, when the characteristics of Saturday and Sunday games are actually somewhat different.

Also note that last weekend’s wild card weekend showed similar trends — both of this year’s Saturday home teams won outright and ATS, while both Sunday hosts lost outright and ATS.

Assuming this trend is used as a tool for the divisional round of games, that means home favorites Baltimore and San Francisco are solid bets on Saturday and road underdogs Tampa Bay and Kansas City are solid bets on Sunday.

Note: Always remember that previous results on trends are no guarantee of future performance. These trends should be use as one of many factors to consider when making an NFL wager.

I’ll go with four side picks this week:

BALTIMORE -9.5 (-110)

SAN FRANCISCO -10 (-105)

TAMPA BAY +6.5 (-120)

KANSAS CITY +3 (-125)