Happy NFL New Year!

 

 

It’s the final weekend of the NFL regular season and the last slate of games for the year.  So, let’s go out with a bang.

Note:  So far, my futures bets are 5-1, with three wagers still to be graded (see below).  I expect to go 1-2 on these plays today, for a final tally of 6 wins and 3 losses on futures.  Those plays and results will be tabulated into this week’s results. 

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2013 NFL SEASON RECORD

92 WINS — 72 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9 WINS  5 LOSSES  0 PUSHES (+$1,920)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $15,607.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  plus $5,607.

BEST BETS:  18–17–2

 

LATE ADDITIONS:  

Atlanta +5.5 vs. Carolina — $550 to win $500 

TEASER:  Atlanta +11.5 with New Orleans -5.5 — $550 to win $500

Atlanta should get boost from TE Gonzalez’ final game, added with Steve Smith being out for Carolina.  Hard to see a blowout here…..Saints line has dropped a half point.

 

 

THIS WEEK’S PLAYS:  This week, there are 9 plays.  See above.

TEASER:  New Orleans -6 with Tennessee -1.5 — $880 to win $800   <<<BEST BET>>>

Saints are a completely different team at home, and play well when motivated in the dome.  Meanwhile, talk is Tampa Bay now going through the motions in what could be head coach’s final game, following a nice mid-season 4 of 5 game win streak.  But now, they’re in a terrible spot with a young QB starting in one of the toughest place in the league to play.  New Orleans should have won at Carolina last week, which only adds to confidence they will steamroll in this game and score a ton of points.  Tease double digits down to under a touchdown……….Titans are also in a favorable spot, playing Houston and seeking revenge for earlier season loss.  Titans still seem to be trying and will want to close out the season on a high note, against the NFL’s most disappointing and underachieving team that gave up on the season weeks ago.

TEASER:  New Orleans -6 with Pittsburgh -1 — $880 to win $800   <<<BEST BET>>>

Steelers are in a similar spot with Titans this week, playing for nothing but pride in their final home game.  Pittsburgh has closed out the season well, playing a series of tough games including a two game win streak, where both offense and defense appear to be playing better.  Look for Steelers to close strong here versus team that hasn’t won in quite a while and which looks absolutely horrid on offense with Jason Campbell taking snaps.  All the makings of a blowout are here.

TEASER:  Pittsburgh -1 with San Diego -4 — $880 to win $800   <<<BEST BET>>>

I’ll take some of the Pittsburgh magic dust and sprinkle it with San Diego, which is basically playing this week versus the Chiefs’ practice squad.  Kansas City is banged up and has absolutely nothing to play for with its playoff seed locked up, so look for a possible rout.  San Diego is another team that continues to play well, despite some early season disappointments.  Look for Chargers to win easily here in final home game.

Minnesota -3 vs. Detroit — $550 to win $500

Vikings are a flaky team, but this is more of a “bet-against” Detroit wager.  It’s tough to see how Detroit will be focused this week, especially on the road, following a string of devastating losses.  Head coach Schwartz is almost certainly gone after this game and the Lions players know it.  Only fear is, Detroit has no pressure and lots of talent, so that could break the other way if Minnesota makes a lot of mistakes (certainly a possibility).  Still, I’m willing to back the prediction that Detroit will have an almost impossible task of preparing for this game while Vikings still have enough left in the tank to win by more than a FG.  Last Vikings home game, Minnesota destroyed Philadelphia — hoping to see similar results here.

Arizona +1 vs. San Francisco — $660 to win $600

49ers enjoyed a huge emotional win (I call it a false win, since they were outplayed in 3 of 4 quarters) in last game at Candlestick Park and now play a final road game against a team everyone continues to underestimate.  Cardinals have not lost a game in two months, and could end the season 11-5 here.  Despite the likelihood they will have nothing to play for (unless Tampa somehow manages to upset New Orleans), Arizona should play this game like their Super Bowl.  I simply can’t see Harbaugh letting his players get banged up when they’ll likely have to go on the road next week in playoffs.  One team should go all out, while the other should be more cautious and just want to get out of town healthy.

TEAM TOTAL POINTS:  New Orleans Over 29.5 — $880 to win $800

See write-up above.

FIRST HALF:  Philadelphia -3 vs. Dallas — $660 to win $600

Betting on the Eagles defense can be risky, but there has to be some learning curve here for the Dallas offense, especially in the first half for a new QB who hasn’t taken a snap all season.  I won’t lay a touchdown on the road in a divisional game, but I’ll sure back the superior team in the first half as QB Orton struggles to catch up on the game plan.  Eagles offense should shred Dallas’ poorly-coached, banged up defensive interior, which has looked bad versus lousy teams (struggled to beat Oakland and Washington the last month).  Also, QB Foles is a Texan, which I think only adds to the Eagles’ motivation.  Biggest game of Foles young career, and he’s played almost perfectly so far this season (highest QB rating).  Only thing that scares me is that inexplicable shit sandwich Philadelphia put up two weeks ago at Minnesota; had they won that game, this contest wouldn’t matter.

 

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:  9 wins and 5 losses (+1,920)

Buffalo +1.5 vs. Miami — $330 to win $300     WINNER

First Half Buffalo +.5 (-115) — $345 to win $300     WINNER

New Orleans +3.5 vs. Carolina — $440 to win $400     LOSER

Tampa /St. Louis OVER 43 — $330 to win $300     LOSER

Indianapolis +7 vs. Kansas City — $440 to win $400     WINNER

First Half Team Total Indianapolis OVER 10 — $330 to win $300     WINNER

Jacksonville +4.5 vs. Tennessee — $660 to win $600   <<<BEST BET>>>     WINNER

First Half Jacksonville +3 (-120) — $480 to win $400     WINNER

First Half Team Total Phoenix OVER 7.5 (-115) — $460 to win $400     LOSER

Pittsburgh/Green Bay OVER 44.5 — $550 to win $500     WINNER

Teaser:  Buffalo +7.5 / Cincinnati -1.5 — $1,100 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>>     WINNER

Teaser:  Jacksonville +10.5 / Cincinnati -1.5 — $1,100 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>>     WINNER

Teaser:  Detroit -3 / Cincinnati -1.5 — $1,100 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>>     LOSER

Teaser:  Cleveland +7.5 / Cincinnati — $550 to win $500     LOSER

 

………………..

 

PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS (will be graded and added to results at season’s end)

DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600    W/L comes down to the final game

NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000    LOSER

GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500    WINNER

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575    WINNER

NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000   WINNER

ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400    W/L comes down to the final game

BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000    W/L comes down to the final game

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800   WINNER

OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000    WINNER

 

……………..

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD

98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

ENDING BANKROLL:  $13,460.

NET GAIN:  +$3,460

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  14-7-0