Do You Kick or Receive in Playoff Overtime?

WHAT’S THE OPTIMAL STRATEGY FOR NFL PLAYOFF OVERTIME RULES?

I’m surprised that so many critics are questioning the San Francisco 49ers’ decision to take the ball in Super Bowl overtime. Receiving the kickoff was clearly the correct decision.

Note that playoff overtime rules are different than regular season rules. There’s no time limitation. And, scoring a touchdown on the first possession isn’t an automatic game winner.

Detractors of the 49ers’ decision to receive point out the advantage of knowing what needs to be done. For instance, if the 49ers score a touchdown on the first drive, the Chiefs know they must also score a touchdown. The ensuing drive is “four down territory.” Yes, this is a significant edge.

However, it’s far more advantageous to get the third possession, assuming the first two possessions trade off identical outcomes (0-0, 3-3, 7-7). Since defenses are likely to be fatigued, that third possession is huge since any score wins automatically. The 49ers defense was also reportedly fatigued by two long Chiefs’ drives in the closing minutes, so getting perhaps a 10-minute rest (with the break) strikes me as the right thing to do for that team, at the time, in that situation (Note: San Francisco’s defense was gassed out by a whopping 23 plays in just final 6 minutes of the game).

This was an exciting Super Bowl with lots of outstanding plays and a thrilling finish, but also more blunders and mistakes than usual. Both coaches made significant errors that I believe could have cost their teams the victory. However, accepting the ball first in overtime was not one of them. That was clearly the optimal decision.

Comments welcome.

Click on the photo below to join the Facebook discussion.