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Posted by on Sep 15, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 3 comments

NFL Week 2 — Plays

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD 4-8-0 —– (minus 8.8 units)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $9,120

1 UNIT = $100

Bad start with wrong side of New Orleans-Washington game, which killed three big teasers.  Coming back this week with some bigger weapons, making the NY Giants the key team in the wheel of multiple teasers. 

Wagering $4,200 this week.

 

THIS WEEK’S PLAYS:

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Posted by on Aug 14, 2012 in Blog, Sports Betting | 0 comments

Nolan Dalla — Updating My NFL Halftime Betting Angles

 

Nolan Dalla

After a Buffalo Bills game in 1998

 

AN UPDATE (ENTERING 2012 REGULAR SEASON):

In 2001, I spent the entire summer creating my halftime betting angles, which could be applied across the board to all NFL regular season and playoff games.

I released these betting angles at a major sports betting information website.  The angles were later re-printed numerous times in several other betting forums and publications.

These seven betting angles hit in the 53-60 percent rate over two decades.  They actually performed even better after their public release — hitting around 62 percent in both 2001 and 2002.  There were about 4 to 5 plays per week, so not only were these angles extremely profitable, they also produced a fair amount of volume.  Best of all, these was absolutely no handicapping involved.

The downside to releasing and popularizing these halftime betting angles is many football bettors gradually caught on to them.  They began to lose value as heavy money poured in every time there was a play.  Opening halftime lines began changing.  Totals moved by a point, or move.  For instance, we never used to see anything below a 17 as a second-half total.  Now, 16s are commonplace.

Over the course of the next few seasons (2003 and beyond), the sportsbooks/oddsmakers caught on to these angles and began adjusting their numbers so much that betting these angles blindly was no longer profitable.

Moreover, two trends in recent years have severely hurt the angles.  First, NFL rule changes tend to favor offenses which creates more scoring.  Second, NFL quarterback play is now at its all-time historic pinnacle, which kills opportunities to bet second-half UNDERS.

Unlike what I first released ten years ago, I do not have confidence that all of these angles will produce a profit.  However, I am posting them here for consideration if anyone wants to tinker with them, try and refine them, or run the W-L results since 2005.  Some bettors have told me that some of these angles (mostly the OVERS) are still profitable.  But I have not run the actual the data.  So, tread with caution.

You will please forgive one disclaimer.  I put in a massive number of hours doing research coming up with these angles.  Over the years, many writers and fellow football handicappers have purged them without proper attribution.  All I ask is to be credited with doing the research.  I think that’s fair.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED — MAY BE REPRINTED ONLY IF AUTHOR IS CREDITED

 

PART 1: GENERAL THOUGHTS

Just as there are “key” numbers is side betting and game totals, there are also key numbers in second-half totals.  The key numbers are as follows: 17, 20, and 24.

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Posted by on Jul 29, 2012 in Las Vegas, Sports Betting | 0 comments

Hell on Earth: The MGM Grand (Las Vegas)

 

MGM Grand exterior hero shot

 

PREFACE:  This is a difficult blog to write.

Each and every week, I receive a text-message inviting me to play in a local poker tournament.  The weekly tourney is $120 buy-in H.O.R.S.E. — hosted at the MGM Grand.

My distaste for the MGM Grand and everything associated with the monstrosity is widely-known and well-documented.  It’s been the subject of columns in both newspapers — the Las Vegas Sun and Las Vegas Review-Journal.  I won’t reopen those wounds and get into details now (see a future blog for that).  I only say that I was fully prepared to move on emotionally and give this giant money-sucking leech another chance when I made my first entrance into the MGM Grand in four years.

And so, last Tuesday night — prompted by an invite from poker pro Karina Jett, the extraordinary hostess at the MGM Grand (probably the only wise executive decision they’ve ever made here was to hire Jett) — I decided to release those bitter bygones and set foot inside a casino that still owes me thousands of dollars.

At 6:30 pm, I pulled into the MGM Grand parking lot.  Not much as changed in this regard since my last visit.  One still must maneuver a giant maze of lanes and floors and then walk a mile to finally get to the building entrance.  Indeed, it takes me perhaps five minutes inside what used to be the world’s largest hotel to instantly realize that ABSOLUTELY NOTHING has changed since I wrote the following review (which was posted at a gambling website back in 2002).

It should be noted that everything in the following review is a reflection of my experience there ten years ago.  But, it’s just as relevant now based on Tuesday night’s visit.  One update:  The MGM Grand now has a poker room, which has moved again.  For several years, it was located beneath a noisy nightclub.  The poker room has since been moved off to the side, which I will add is nothing to brag about.

Moreover, all of the events relating to my fallout at the MGM Grand in 2005 occurred well after this review was written.  So anyone who thinks I’m biased should be aware this review was originally written three years prior.

Here it goes.

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