2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 9
2025 NFL: WEEK 9 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 73
LOSSES — 61
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$490
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-9-0 (-$135)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,490.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
–
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
Game Prop — Will both kickers make a 33+ field goal — YES (-125)….W
Player Prop — BUF QB Allen OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-130)…L
Game Prop — MIA First Drive Ends in — PUNT (+125)…W
Player Prop — MIA QB Tagovailoa to throw interception–YES (-140)…:L
Chicago +6.5 vs. Baltimore (full-game line)…L
Chicago +3.5 (first-half line)…L
Cleveland +4 (first-half line)…W
Player Prop — HOU QB Stroud OVER 202.5 passing yards (-115)…W
Player Prop — TEN WR Jefferson OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-120)…L
Player Prop — NOR QB Rattler OVER 213.5 passing yards (-115)…L
Player Prop — NOR WR Shaheed OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-115)…W
Team Total — New Orleans OVER 20 points (full-game)…L
NY Jets +6.5 vs. Cincinnati…W
Dallas +3.5 vs. Denver (full-game line) (-120)…L
Team Toals — Dallas OVER 23.5 (-115)…W
Player Prop — DAL WR Pickens OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-115)…W
Player Prop — DAL WR Pickens OVER 23.5 longest catch (-115)…L
–
A FEW MID-SEASON THOUGHTS:
Even though I’m having a winning year with marginal net-positive results, I still can’t help but feel like the first half of the NFL season has been a disappointment.
Perhaps it’s just an emotional overreaction to chaos and unpredictability from week-to-week. As sports handicappers, we’re supposed to never get emotionally involved in games and outcomes. But I’ve always been very open about my feelings and reactions to what I do and the way games play out.
Speaking of emotions and reacting to wins and losses, few comments about last week’s Chicago-Baltimore game are mandatory here. In Week 8, the Bears opened up as +6.5 point underdogs. The Ravens were favored mainly because QB Lamar Jackson was announced as the starter. Obviously, Baltimore is a much stronger team with Jackson (even though I still think he’s a great regular season player, but less so in the playoffs–but that’s another topic for discussion later). I liked the Bears at +6.5 no matter who was starting, and so I made a cash wager on them. On Saturday, I turned in my contest picks (at Westgate and Circa). I have 10 contest tickets, at $1,000 each. So, I have ten tickets to fill out each week. Just as I was about to make my entry official, the announcement came that Jackson was *not* starting (a few cappers paying close attention got a hint of this early Saturday when it became known Jackson did not work out with the first team offense in Friday’s team practice–a sure indication he was unlikely to start). Sure enough, the line plummeted to Chicago +2. The line dropped 4.5 points, which is huge on an NFL game. For contest picks, getting the best of a 4.5-point line move is an automatic decision. So, I put the Bears on all ten contest tickets. I was also kicking myself for not betting more money on the Bears earlier, at the generous line of +6.5.
Sports outcomes don’t turn out like we expect, and the Bears-Ravens game was the perfect example of that (add the Miami-Atlanta game, which was just as bizarre–how did the Dolphins come in and destroy the Falcons after looking so bad lately?). In the CHI-BAL game, Chicago jumped out to an early 6-0 lead after two impressive drives stalled in the Red Zone. Still, this bet looked like gold. The Ravens offense looked lost. Then….
….well, you know the rest. Baltimore won by 14 points, covering the spread easily, despite backup QB Tyler Huntley under center combined with a Ravens’ defense that had been steamrolled in nearly every game this season. And the fucking Bears…..ugh.
I looked at that final score and just shook my head. All the contest tickets were tainted with a loss, and I lost cash money as well. Fortunately, I didn’t have lots of cash on me or have a huge amount of money in my online accounts. Had I known I could take advantage of a 4.5-point line move, I would have bet the game for a very large amount. So, I may have actually saved money from a much worse defeat.
It’s hard to forget a game like that where all the stars seemed to line up perfectly for an easy winner and simply move on after a loss. Even doing everything right sometimes blows up in our faces. Hence, I’ve gradually downgraded my sides betting for precisely this reason. The NFL week-to-week seems ridiculously volatile, more even than it used to be, and I’ve been around for more years than I care to admit. Fortunately, there are many other wagering options on these games. That’s where I’ll focus more of my attention going forward.
Now, it’s on to NFL Week 9 – and of course the first game on the schedule is……BALTIMORE at MIAMI.
Waaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh!
–
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 9:
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 18.5 rushing attempts (-130)
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)
Two of the NFL’s most unpredictable teams over the last few weeks will face off on Thursday Night Football. When we can’t predict an outcome with any degree of confidence, it’s usually best simply to take the dog–plus the points. This is especially true with a home team getting more than a touchdown. Currently, the Ravens are -7.5 favorites over the Dolphins in Miami, which seems like a lot of points to give for any big favorite with major questions while also playing on a short week. Then again–do we really want to bet on the Dolphins? Will the real Dolphins and Ravens please stand up? I lean to MIA +7.5, but will pass on making a cash wager. The total also looks a bit high at O/U 51, FWIW.
Lamar Jackson’s injury pulled a major mind fake on bettors last weekend. But he’ll likely start this time. Will Jackson quickly revert to mid-season form, or might four weeks of inactivity take time for the QB to adjust? Again–who knows?
Where value may exist with ample evidence to make a few wagers could be with fading All-Pro RB Derrick Henry. The Ravens rusher typically attracts money on the OVER props, with some justification. However, Henry’s O/U projections tend to be slightly inflated, which means taking the UNDER on various rushing props when the situation is favorable. This situation looks especially favorable tonight for Henry’s season-averages to remain flat and for him to fall under on both the rush attempts (18.5) and yardage (90.5).
My reasoning goes–these are two of the slowest-paced offenses in the NFL. Baltimore ranks 31st in number of offensive plays per game, at 53 on average (Miami ranks 30th). A slower pace and fewer plays on both sides of the ball means fewer opportunities for the offensive stars and padding to their individual stat lines. The Ravens rank 22nd in rush attempts per game, their low ranking more due to playing from behind several times this season and being forced to abandon the run late in games. At 133 YPG rushing, Baltimore has fallen from their customary spot in the top three, now ranking 8th among all teams. For Henry to reach his numbers and go OVER versus Miami, he’ll have to get 70 percent of the carries and pick up a similar percentage of team rushing yards. He may get close to those percentages, but I’m counting on the final tallies to be a little short.
QB Jackson’s return likely means more confidence with the passing game. Jackson is also likely to add approx. 6.5 rushes on his own based on his prop projections, thus reducing Henry’s workload. The Ravens also have enough offensive targets to spread the ball around, and hopefully keep Henry’s attempts to a modest number.
It’s important to also note Henry’s heavy use in the last two games — 24 rushes in Week 7 and 21 rush attempts in Week 8, which was just 4 days ago. That’s 45 carries in just the last 11 days, and now the Ravens play on a short week. It’s a small sample size, but in Henry and the Ravens’ two TNF games last season, his workload was lower than average — just 16 carries for 68 yards in one game and 13 carries for 46 yards in the second. Perhaps that was by design, not wanting to wear the star down. I’d be surprised to see Henry fed the ball another 20 times with so little rest. He did score two TDs last week, but had only 71 rushing yards. Henry’s season average are lower than his career average — just 109 carries for 510 yards in seven games, which equals 15.5 rush attempts per game and 72 YPG. He’ll need an extra 4 attempts and 19 additional yards rushing to break tonight’s prop numbers. I’m betting the — no.
Obviously, a long breakaway could kill the yardage prop, and we’ve seen Henry do this in the past versus weak defenses. Miami’s defense also inspires little to no confidence, but these wagers aren’t rooted in the Dolphins’ strengths but rather speculate on the Baltimore game plan which we hope will be to distribute the ball more to other Raven players, and for Jackson to enjoy some success passing the ball. Henry should factor in, but I’m counting on this not to be an MVP night. A short week, perhaps some tired legs with Henry, and a more diverse game plan, combined with very high projections on the Ravens’ RB looks to be a good fade this week.
<<< Picks will be continuously updated Wednesday through Saturday >>>
FINAL LIST OF PICKS FOR WEEK 9
(For those who just want the picks)
<<< Please check back on Saturday night >>>
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
