2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 5
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2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 32
LOSSES — 30
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — -$280
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 3-7-0 (-$495)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,720
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ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
Seattle -1 vs. Arizona (Full Game Line)…W
Seattle OVER 10 points Team Total in First Half (-120)…W
ARZ QB Murray OVER 212.5 passing yards (-115)…L
Carolina +5.5 vs. New England (Full-Game)…L
Carolina +3 vs. New England (First-Half)…L
Tennessee / Houston Largest Lead of game UNDER 14.5…L
Player Prop: NOR QB Rattler OVER 11.5 yards rushing (-120)…W
NY GIants Team Total UNDER 17.5 Points (-105)…L
Packers / Cowboys: Both Teams to Make 33+ Yard FG–YES (-135)…L
Moneyline Parlay: Denver / LA Chargers (Risking 100 to win 72)…L
GENERAL THOUGHTS HEADING INTO WEEK 5:
I’m always interested in learning about the methodology of successful sports bettors. If you ask a dozen for their opinion (assuming you can find a dozen), you’ll probably get more than a few dozen answers. There is no “one size fits all,” no “magic bullet,” and no “golden goose.” Different things work for different handicappers and different times. Given how things change across the league – be it teams or players or other factors – adjustments have to be made. Constantly.
However, one aspect of handicapping does remain consistent. As long as we put in the requisite time and stay up-to-date with breaking news (such as injuries and weather reports), at some point extra work becomes redundant. Spending 10 hours handicapping a single ball game rather than 5 hours doesn’t mean the analysis (or wager) is twice as reliable. It doesn’t even mean it’s better, as in some cases digesting too much information can lead to confusion. At some point, we “max out” on what’s available in terms of public information. Once the data is read, and studied, and digested it makes no sense to keep on regurgitating the same data. You can’t keep on rebuilding the same mousetrap.
Case in point — last week’s Bengals at Giants game. Cincy was favored by 6.5 points playing at the NY Giants. From the opening kickoff, the 0-3 Giants out-played and out-coached the 3-0 Chargers. They won in a huge upset 21-18. Survival pools blew up everywhere. Oh, and the Giants started a rookie QB who took his first NFL snap against the league’s #4-ranked defense. Go figure.
Prior to that game, if you saw anything in the preliminary data that suggested the Giants were the correct side to bet, I’d sure like to hear about it. If you read a stat or had secret information that the Giants’ cover would never be seriously in question during the entire game, then please share that with us. You could have spent 5 hours, or 10 hours, or 40 hours studying that matchup and I don’t think anyone would find supportive material justifying confidence in the Giants, let alone predict them winning the game. If I’m wrong, please contact me and educate me about it.
I use this example to illustrate how researching games, making predictions, and posting write-ups does have limitations. There’s only so much you can do pre-game and no amount of extra work or crystal ball gazing is going to be able to predict inevitable upsets, or blocked kicks on the final play of the game that results in a touchdown and cover (recall the Rams-Eagles game in Week #3). We do the best we can as handicappers, and we just have to accept that some things are simply beyond our control.
What’s important is to keep trying, and perhaps learn from the things we see, and correct the mistakes we make — if we can identify them.
After a decent start to the season, I’ve returned to roughly the break-even mark, and am down a few units in wagering. Let’s now move on to this week’s schedule.
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 5:
<<< SAN FRANCISCO vs. LA RAMS (Thurs.) >>>
The betting trends in support of a wager on the Rams in this NFC West matchup are overwhelming:
— San Francisco is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games.
— They are 4-8 SU in the last 12 games.
— 49ers are 1-4 ATS in last 5 games vs. LA Rams.
— LA Rams are 6-1 ATS in last 7 games.
— They are 9-3 SU in its last 12 games.
— Rams are 5-1 ATS in previous six home games.
So, every trend points to LAR minus the points.
Both teams are 3-1, but that’s deceiving. One has looked like a Super Bowl contender (the Rams could be 4-0 right now, except for the last-play disaster in Phila.). The other has struggled most of the season, and been wildly inconsistent, in part due to crippling injuries. What the heck is happening in San Francisco where year-after-year this team can’t stay healthy and loses so many key players? I don’t get it. (and I have a huge wager on SFO to win the NFC this season, so these injuries are devastating to me personally).
The Rams are laying -8 as of right now and as much as I want to take the huge underdog, I can’t do it. The line move from -5.5 (early line) up over a touchdown suggests QB Purdy will not start (this is being written 36 hours in advance).
One player prop jumps out at me. Let’s go with SFO kicker Pineiro to exceed 1.5+ successful field goals. Pineiro has only played three games for the 49ers this season, after some good years in Carolina (88.7 percent successful on FGs over his career). In 2025, he is perfect 7-for-7 kicking FGs, including a long of 51 yards. With the 49ers likely to be struggling due to injuries and possibly starting a backup QB Jones, that could create a more conservative offensive game plan, and a willingness to take points when they can with a kick. SFO bypassed a few chances to go for it on 4th down last week, showing this team is a bit more timid than were used to seeing with Shanahan-coached teams. Both games between the teams last season were decided by six points or fewer. If we get a close game again this time, that likely helps the over on FG props.
Wager:
Player Prop: SFO K Pineiro OVER 1.5 successful field goals (-115)
Final Picks for Week 1
(For those who just want the picks….)
Player Prop: SFO K Pineiro OVER 1.5 successful field goals (-115)…W
Minnesota / Cleveland OVER 36 points–full game
Philadelphia -3.5 (-115) vs. Denver
New Orleans -1.5 vs. NY Giants
Player Prop: NYG QB Dart UNDER 173.5 passing yards
Player Prop: NOR RB Kamara OVER 14.5 rushing attempts (-125)
Player Prop: NOR RB Kamara OVER 58.5 rushing yards
NY Jets +2.5 vs. Dallas
Player Prop: NYJ QB Fields OVER 188.5 passing yards
Houston -2 vs. Baltimore
Player Prop: LVR QB Smith to throw an interception–YES (-130)
Arizona -7.5 vs. Tennessee
Player Prop: ARZ QB Murray OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-115)
WAS / LAC — Will Both Kickers Have Successful 33+ yard FGs–YES (-130)
New England +8 vs. Buffalo (-105)
