2025 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 4

 

 

NFL WEEK 4 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS

2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 29
LOSSES — 23
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$215
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 11-9-0 (+$75)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,215

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA (Thursday Night)

Both of these NFC West rivals are 2-1 this season — SU and ATS. However, Seattle has played a slightly tougher schedule and has looked far more consistent, especially on offense. So, getting points and leaning to the dog seems like the place to start when possibly taking the superior team.

What compels me to take the road team here is the Seahawks’ impressive performances as an away team. Their 8-1 SU record on the road under this coaching staff ranks as best in the NFL since the start of 2024 season. That includes lots of impressive road wins in tough places, including a dominant victory at Pittsburgh in Week 2. SEA QB Sam Darnold looks to be getting more comfortable each week, so that’s another positive. In fact, Darnold is the best QB the Cardinals will have faced, given they’ve played against Rattler (NOR), Young (CAR), and Jones (SFO) — not exactly a stellar lineup of starting QBs.

Seattle is also healthier. The ARZ RB James Conner injury really hurts a team that had balance on offense. Now, more pressure falls onto the arm of QB Murray, who has shown moments of greatness, but remains wildly inconsistent. The Seahawks’ run defense has been great at stopping rushing (allowing just 3.2 YPC), Without Conner, it’s going to really fall onto Murray to produce yards and points. I’ll fade that prospect. I’ll also take SEA team total OVER 10 points (-120) in the first half. The Seahawks have been an excellent 1H team this season, ranking second in the NFL at 18 PPG (1H). They come out prepared for games, and tonight should be no exception.

On props, I’ll go OVER on QB Murray’s passing yardage, even though that’s contradictory to leaning to Seattle for the game. Murray should throw early and often, and even if SEA plays well and leads, that provides fertile ground for Murray’s passing stats in play-from-behind mode. Murray hasn’t needed to throw much in games this season as ARZ had led of been close in the 4Q–that should change Thurs. night. He surpassed 220+ passing yards in seven of his final eight games last season. Hence, 212.5 looks very breakable, even with a slightly downward trend overall in passing efficiency league-wide.

UPDATE: Line has moved to SEA -1. Plays will be graded based on that number.

Wagers:
Seattle -1 vs. Arizona (Full Game Line)
Seattle OVER 10 points Team Total in First Half (-120)
ARZ QB Murray OVER 212.5 passing yards (-115)

NOTE: NFL game write-ups and picks will be posted THU-SAT at this link [CLICK BELOW]:

https://www.betcoin.ag/page/nolan-expert-picks-week4/

 

THIS WEEK PICKS (see write-ups at link above):

Seattle -1 vs. Arizona (Full Game Line)…W
Seattle OVER 10 points Team Total in First Half (-120)…W
ARZ QB Murray OVER 212.5 passing yards (-115)…L
Carolina +5.5 vs. New England (Full-Game)
Carolina +3 vs. New England (First-Half)
Tennessee / Houston Largest Lead of game UNDER 14.5
Player Prop: NOR QB Rattler OVER 11.5 yards rushing (-120)
NY GIants Team Total UNDER 17.5 Points (-105)
Packers / Cowboys: Both Teams to Make 33+ Yard FG–YES (-135)
Moneyline Parlay: Denver / LA Chargers (Risking 100 to win 72)

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